Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden. AP.
Joe Biden has expressed concern about an US intelligence leak that showed Israel's plans to strike Iran. AP. The administration is not sure if the documents were hacked or leaked deliberately. The documents were originated from the National Security Agency and National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and were posted on pro-Iran Telegram channels. An anonymous user on the site said they had access to the material and had sold it to Iran along with leaking it.
The BBC has an article detailing the Israeli plans. The strike would use Israelis ballistic missile systems, the Rocks and Golden Horizon systems. The attacks would be similar to Israel's last retaliatory strikes on Iran but on a long scale. The documents said that nuclear weapons would not be used, which caused embarrassment to Washington DC because they do not officially acknowledge that Israel has nuclear weapons. The documents do not reveal which targets Israel will hit and the timing of the attack, with most believing that it will not come until after the US Presidential election.
My Comment:
Though the contents of this leak aren't especially surprising it is a fairly shocking one given the the fact that it was given to an US enemy in Iran. Having this kind of intelligence released is not only a major embarrassment it is going to hurt relations with Israel.
It's no surprise that Israel is going to strike Iran at some point. They are locked in a tit for tat cycle of revenge and it's going to be awhile before one side decides to walk away. Especially since the cost of the war has been small in terms of lives. Neither side is in a position to actually destroy each other so I expect this to continue.
We did not know what the shape of this attack was going to be. Assuming the intel is correct, it's just going to be a larger version of the last strike that Israel pulled off against Iran. That strike was fairly minor in the big scheme of things but it does seem like this one will be larger and will strike more targets.
The good news is that Israel isn't going to use nukes. That wasn't likely regardless, but it is significant that a US intel document legitimately identified the fact that Israel does indeed have nuclear weapons. That isn't a surprise but it's a polite fiction that nobody in the government acknowledges it. Having this leak out is a huge embarrassment and one that Israel is likely to be furious about, as it might lead to the rest of the world simply acknowledging that Israel has nukes. That might even cause Iran to step up their own nuclear weapons program and could induce a arms race in the Middle East.
Of course the documents aren't as important as the fact that they are out there now. The real question is if this was a hack or an act of treason. Neither is good of course but the fact that we don't know is even more concerning as in either case more documents could be released.
I think the hack is the least likely explanation. Iran has hacked people before, most notably the Trump campaign this year. However, their hacking of the Trump campaign was very simple, somebody clicked on a phishing e-mail. To get these documents I think Iran would have to do a lot more than send phishing e-mails to the NSA, they would have to defeat the NSA's formidable fortifications. If they were hacked though, I would be very concerned as that would be a major increase in their capability.
Much more likely is a deliberate leak. We have certainly seen leaks from US sources before. There were the Ukraine leaks and the nonsense Reality Winner pulled back in the day. And of course there was Edward Snowden. And a leaker would have a much easier time accessing the documents than some Iranian or other foreign hacker. I think a leaker is the easiest and most likely explanation and I would be surprised if it is anything else.
So why would they leak this? I think ideology is the most likely explanation. There are a lot of people in the Biden Administration that are very upset about their Israel policy. There are probably a lot of people that would want to warn Iran about an Israeli attack just to hurt Israel in revenge for Gaza and Lebanon. It could also be someone who cares more about Iran and wants to protect them, perhaps an Iranian sleeper agent?
Ideology might not be the explanation though. The guy that leaked the Ukraine documents did it for internet clout and we can't discount the idea that they did it for money as well. Indeed, supposedly the account that posted this material said they were paid for it. It's possible the motive is all three, ideology, clout and money.
Either way, the main focus now is finding whoever this is and prosecuting them. They could be even charged with treason since they gave it to an enemy country. There are only so many people that have access to these files, assuming it is indeed a leak, and I am sure every single one of them is going to have a hard time as this investigation continues...
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