Ukraine has pulled US donated M1A1 battle tanks from combat after proving ineffective in battle conditions.

 

 Secretary of the Army Christine Wormuth with an M1A2 Abrams. AP.

Ukraine has pulled US donated M1A1 Abrams main battle tanks from combat after they proved to be ineffective against Russia. AP. The US sent 31 of the tanks to Ukraine with promises that they would change the course of the war and would allow Ukraine to break Russian lines. However, the tanks proved unable to deal with Russian drone attacks and were not able to even drive without being spotted due to Russian reconnaissance drones. At least five of the tanks were destroyed in combat already. The United States is now trying to devise new tactics that can make use of the tanks. 

File photo of M1 Abrams tanks in Greece. Newsweek/AP.

In related news Russia will display a captured M1A1 Abrams in Moscow. Newsweek. The tank will be shown in public along with other captured western weapons. Video released by Russia shows the tank being hit by two missiles and being destroyed. Video also shows the tank burning and Ukrainian soldiers fleeing from it. 

The first US-made M1 Abrams tank destroyed near Avdeyevka is shown by the Russian Defence Ministry

The Russian MoD released footage of the destruction and evacuation of the American "legendary" tank, also showing photos of the pile of metal — all that was left of the "best tank… pic.twitter.com/uTqwruQEGq

— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) April 29, 2024

My Comment:

The M1A1 debacle has been playing out for the last week or so and it's clear that the deployment was a failure. Why NAFO thought a small deployment of a 40 year old tank design, and not even the most modern version either, was going to change the outcome of the war is beyond me. If the Leopard and Challenger tanks, modern tanks from Germany and the UK, didn't change much, why would the Abrams? 

So why did the Abrams fail? First of all, they barely sent any of them. 31 tanks is not going to do much in a war involving hundreds of tanks and thousands of vehicles. Second, the tanks are not going to have much to do when the war has switched from an offensive war to a defensive one. These tanks are meant for breaking Russian lines, but since Ukraine is on the retreat, they don't have much to do. 

It's also clear that armor is a lot less useful than it used to be due to drones and high powered missiles. Ukraine is claiming these tanks were unable to do much against Russian drones, either because they were blowing them up or because they were instantly spotted. I think there is a lot of truth to that, neither side of the war has used tanks all that effectively. Indeed, for a long time the war had degraded into World War I tactics with trench warfare being the rule, not the exception. That is changing now due to Russia's air superiority and widespread use of KAB glide bombs, but it's clear that Ukraine is an infantry and artillery war.  

The M1A1's in particular had some major issues as well. They are extremely heavy which is not good for famously muddy Ukraine. They are fuel hogs which makes them expensive and difficult to run. And they are also heavy on the maintenance, which Ukraine is probably not able to provide. The modernized M1A2's are even worse in this regard so it does raise the question, does the United States need a new main battle tank? 

This is another example of western Wunderwaffen not actually having that much of an effect on Russia's war effort. It's also why that I don't think that the supposed delivery of F-16 falcons will do much either. F-16's are old tech too but Russia has the advantage in air power and air defenses. A few 4th generation fighters won't change anything and even if Ukraine got F-35's or F-22's it wouldn't matter much. 

As for Russia's display of captured Western equipment, it is a humiliation. The M1 tank will be the biggest trophy, but far from the only. Most of the weapons we have sent there have been captured and destroyed and if we deploy F-16's, I am sure the same thing will happen again.

Finally, I do have to say that it's not  western weapons Ukraine needs. We could give them all the weapons in the world but it won't matter if they don't have the troops to use and maintain them. Ukraine is running out of troops and won't be able go on the offensive again anytime soon, if ever. They still have enough troops to keep fighting but any new aid is probably going to be utterly wasted, barring some kind of divine intervention or an unprecedented collapse of Russia's armed forces or government, Ukraine will lose the war. 

States file lawsuits against Biden Administration's Title IX transgender rules.

 

Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt. AP.

Several states have filed lawsuits against the Biden Administration's new Title IX transgender rules. AP. The officials argue that the policy would hurt women and girls and damage free speech rights. The rules would add "gender identity" to the groups that Title IX, a 1972 regulation that prohibits sex based discrimination at schools that receive federal funds. Biden's change of the legislation would bar many recent laws in conservative states that protect girls and woman's sports by barring biological males from them. Laws that disallow people from using opposite sex bathrooms would be at risk as well. Biden's rule would also bar teachers from "mis-gendering" students, which means teachers would not be able to refer to children by their actual sex. Some states have said they will not enforce Biden's ruling regardless. 

My Comment:

Biden's unilateral evisceration of Title IX was not going to be taken lying down. With several states filing separate lawsuits against his new rules, I am guessing that this will be put on a judicial hold before it would go into effect this August. 

This is also a rare issue where the right can agree with portions of the left on. In reality the trans-positive part of the Democratic coalition is small. There are a lot of people on the far left that are anti-trans, though for different reasons than most Republicans. Both groups agree that transgender "women" aren't actually women, but for different reasons. The left are often trans-exclusionary radical feminists (also known as the slur TERFs). They believe that male-to-female transgender (MTF's) people are just trying to oppress actual women. 

I do think that these anti-trans laws are necessary. I don't think that transgender children are a thing that would exist naturally and it's mostly cultural contamination that causes them. Transgenderism is literally a meme by the original Richard Dawkins meaning of the word, an idea transmitted via culture. Stopping it should be a cultural priority, at least when it comes to children. Adults can and will do what they want but children do not have the maturity to make decisions that will affect them for the rest of their lives. That's why they aren't allowed to consent to sex, marriage or other body modifications, like tattoos.   

The desire by pro-trans people to get opposite sex students in sports is extremely disruptive to woman and girl's sports. Sexual dimorphism is a thing that exists in humans and pumping someone full of hormones is not going to change that. Almost any MTF transgender will have a major advantage over almost all women in woman's sports just because of basic biology. It has lead to the absurd situation where women are simply unable to meaningfully compete against MTF's. This isn't even speculation, there have been dozens of reports of transgender students absolutely destroying female competitors. 

The bathrooms use is disturbing as well. Bathrooms and locker rooms are vulnerable places for women and girls and there have been several cases of sexual assault by transgender students in bathrooms and locker rooms. The most notable case was the one that propelled Glenn Youngkin to the Governor's office in Virginia, but that was far from the only one. 

What really gets me is the compelled speech present in Biden's Title IX rules. Most people don't believe that transgender people are really their perceived sex. And many people have ideological or religious objection to transgender ideology. Forcing them to conform to things they believe to be false is a huge violation of the 1st amendment and should not be tolerated.

The real question is why Biden tried to do this now? This is the kind of unpopular policy that it makes zero sense to do in election year. It's going to be a huge issue and one that will take away voters from Joe Biden in a year where he can't afford to lose even a single vote. If it was his 2nd term this might make sense to try and push, even though there would be backlash against it. But that's not the case so it's impossible to see this as anything other than an own-goal. 

Ukraine retreats from three villages in Donetsk...

 

An Ukrainian solider of the 22nd Separate Mechanical Brigade. Reuters

Ukraine has retreated from three villages in Donetsk. Reuters. General Syrskyi, Ukraine's top commander, said that the situation at the front has worsened and the area around the captured city of Avdeeka. President Zelensky begged for new weapons despite a $61 billion funding bill passed in Congress. They are especially calling for Patriot missile batteries. General Syrskyi said that Ukraine had withdrawn from Berdychi, Semenivka and Novomykhailivka. A forth town, Novobakhmutivka, was claimed by Russia as well. Fierce fighting is also occurring near Chasiv Yar, a major strategic hub that Russia is trying to capture. Russia is also building up forces near the major city of Kharkiv, also known as Kharkov, but Syrskyi said that he didn't believe that an offensive there is coming. 

My Comment:

This retreat follows the Russian victory at Ocheretino in the same general area and shows that Ukraine is not doing well at the moment. Losing four more villages after Ocheretino is not at all surprising but what is surprising is that the media is reporting it and Ukraine is admitting it. 

Of course, it is being used as propaganda to try and get Ukraine more weapons, despite the fact that Ukraine just got $61 billion in funding. Much of that funding isn't going to Ukraine though, much of it is to buy new weapons for the United States, not Ukraine. 

The begging for Patriot missile systems is very telling. Russia has control of the skies at this point and are able to drop KAB glide bombs on Ukrainian positions at will. Indeed, that is what they have been doing, deploy small infantry units to hold the enemy and drop dozens of KAB's on their positions until there is basically no cover left and then letting the infantry take the positions. 

Would Patriots help with that? Probably not. Russia has gotten pretty good at destroying Ukrainian anti-aircraft systems. Indeed, that's the reason why Ukraine needs new air defenses in the first place. Those systems have problems defending against hypersonic missiles and are often baited into firing at drones and then being hit by missiles. 

The problem for Ukraine though is not equipment, it's troops. They do not have anywhere near enough to actually fight Russia at this point. Indeed, Russia outnumbers Ukraine at this point, which wasn't true for much of the war and a major reason why Russia had difficulty before last year's summer offensive. Ukraine doesn't have anywhere near enough troops to stop Russia and it's too the point where units are not getting the rest they need to stay effective. I had to laugh at the line in the article that said the holes in Donetsk were going to be plugged with "fresh" troops when I doubt there is a fresh unit left in Ukraine. 

The real question is if this was just Ukraine pulling back due to a Russian breakthrough or if it's a start of a general collapse. Both are plausible. Ocheretino opened up a pathway behind their defensive lines and once breached those defenses were useless. It would make sense to pull back to better defensive lines instead of staying in positions that are vulnerable. If so that would mark a change in Ukrainian strategy because they have been infamous for holding positions long after they have become indefensible. Perhaps Ukraine has finally decided to try and trade territory for lives?

But it's also possible that Ukraine is facing serious problems with their troops wanting to fight. Ocheretino was a rout with troops refusing the fight to the city, just like what happened in Adveeka. Their troops are having demoralized and exhausted. Weapons are a problem as well as Ukraine just doesn't have the air defenses and armor to hold back Russia anymore. I think it's possible that we will just see a general collapse of Ukraine's fighting men before any of the aid from Congress arrives. 

Ukrainians on the front line dismiss new aid from US saying it will only prolong the war.

 

Ukrainians mourn a dead soldier. The Daily Beast/Reuters.

Ukrainians on the front line dismiss new aid from the United States saying it will only prolong the war. The Daily Beast. One civilian said "are you serious? Now this war will just continue" when informed that Congress had passed a new aid package. Another said that the money would be a drop in the bucket and doubted new weapons would stop the Russians from winning. A third man lamented the corruption in Ukraine and said the money from Congress will go to the wrong people, and detailed a personal experience with corruption. A woman said that she actually supported Russia and didn't care which side won. Finally a soldier who was in treatment in a mental ward for PTSD and a psychotic break said with tears in his eyes that the new weapons would not help. The interviews by The Daily Beast occurred in Kharkiv, also known as Kharkov, a city that is likely to be Russia's next target and is under heavy attack. 

My Comment:

Some rare real journalism from the Daily Beast. They are not an outlet I use often since they are mostly biased, but in this case it's a good viewpoint that you rarely see in western media. I will give the Daily Beast credit for showing another side of the conflict and being fair to both sides as they also gave the more mainstream opinion that the aid will actually do something. 

Is this opinion widespread in Ukraine? It's hard to tell. It's important to note that Kharkov is a city that mostly speaks Russian and has a lot of Russian people. It's also near the front lines and is under frequent attack, unlike cities in Western Ukraine. Even Kiev has been less affected by the war than Kharkov has been. 

I am guessing that the people in Kiev don't share there views, for what should be obvious reasons. Those folks are mostly sheltered from the worst effects of the war and are where much of the graft and corruption is being sent too. And many of them are racists that hate both Russia and Russians and want the war to continue at all costs. 

But I think that the people The Daily Beast interviewed are pretty much right. Russia is pretty obviously winning the war and a few billion dollars in aid and weapons is not going to matter. Russia has a huge advantage in manpower and technology and has been steadily rolling back Ukrainian lines since their failed offensive last year. 

I do have to say that the human tragedy here is immense. Most of the folks interviewed by The Daily Beast had a rough time of it. The soldier interviewed was clearly traumatized and broken and probably had some serious physical damage along with the mental damage. He said he had 30 concussions and was still fighting on the front lines, which just shows how bad Ukraine's manpower issue is. And everyone seems to have lost someone...

I also think that they are right, peace talks should be happening. There is no reason for this war to continue until the last Ukrainian soldier is dead. And Ukraine itself would probably get a better settlement if they negotiate an end to the war instead of a unconditional surrender, which is now the most likely outcome for this war. But the Biden Administration won't allow any serious discussion with Russia to end the war, which means that everyone interviewed in this story will probably end up dead or crippled... 

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson confronts pro-Hamas protesters at Columbia.

 

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson at Columbia. Politico/AFP/Getty.

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson confronted pro-Hamas protesters at Columbia University. Politico. Johnson announced that he said he would call Joe Biden to send in the National Guard to break up the protests. Speaking over the protesters heckling him, Johnson said that the protests did not count as free speech and criticized the president of Columbia University, Minouche Shafik, for being weak and ineffectual. He is joined by his criticism of Shafik by many other Republicans and at least one Democrat, Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman. The protests at Columbia have lasted a week and have spread to other campuses across the country. There have been incidents of outright antisemitism at the Columbia protests. 

 

My Comment:

I've got mixed feelings about this. I think Mike Johnson was pretty obviously trying to distract against the fact that Ukraine aid got passed. That was hugely unpopular among the Republican base, especially since Johnson didn't secure any border security measures. Taking on the Columbia protesters is a very good way to get that out of the news. 

With that being said, I do think the Columbia protesters do need to be confronted. They have been acting terribly to the Jews on campus and it's clear that they aren't protesting Israel's actions in Gaza, they are protesting the existence of Jews themselves. That's absolutely not acceptable and the protests need to be broken up.

Is Johnson right that this protest isn't protected under the 1st Amendment? I would believe so. Protest is protected under free speech but civil disorder is not. Occupying campus and preventing people from using it goes beyond simple protest and harassing Jews on campus is disorderly conduct at best and a hate crime at worst. 

That being said, I am concerned about free speech when it comes to Israel and Judaism. I don't support bans on the ideas that the protesters spout, as misguided and inaccurate they are. I also don't support laws about denying the Holocaust or other similar laws against antisemitism, people should be able to say whatever they want whenever they want. 

Regardless, I think there is a huge difference in how this is being handled at Columbia and other campuses compared to what happened at UT-Austin today. When an unlawful protest broke out there, police didn't waste time in breaking it up. The protest was disrupted and the leadership was arrested. Compare that to other campuses where the protests have lasted weeks. 

I haven't made a secret of my disdain for left wing protests in general and the pro-Hamas position specifically. These protests are absolutely pointless as Israel does not care at all what happens on American campuses, at least in terms of foreign policy. They do care about the Jewish students being threatened, but they absolutely aren't going to stop their war on Hamas regardless of what happens at college campuses in America. 

I think the idea is to put pressure on Joe Biden which also seems pointless. Biden no longer has any influence on Israel's actions, which is proven by their strike on Iran and their refusal to change their war plans. Any change in foreign policy by Biden won't actually do anything to stop the war in Israel. It could be this could be another effort for the progressive left to take over the Democrats, but that seems pointless when they basically have done so already. Biden, instead of shifting to the center, has gone hard left outside of his Israeli policy, so there isn't much of a point. 

As I have mentioned before, Biden is in a no-win scenario here. If he goes hard against the pro-Hamas wing of his party, he risks losing them, and he has indeed lost quite a few of them already. If he goes in their favor he risks losing Jews for Democrats for good. He has no good options and no matter what he chooses he will be hurt for 2024. Which side will he choose? I am not sure, both options are bad for him. I'd hope that he would side against the protesters but who knows what he will do? I doubt even Biden knows... 

Mitch McConnell believes that Republicans don't like Ukraine aid because of Tucker Carlson...

 

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. New York Post/AP.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has blamed Tucker Carlson for Republicans not supporting Ukraine aid. New York Post. McConnell said that Carlson's enormous audience was convinced by him to question aid and also said that he should continue to interview Russian President Vladimir Putin. McConnell also blamed Donald Trump, the Democrats and the border crisis for why it took a long time for the bill to pass. The Senate approved the bill sent to them from Congress that would give $95 billion to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. 

My Comment:

This is another example of Mitch McConnell being totally out of touch with his voters, along with Republicans in general. No, Tucker Carlson didn't convince everyone that Ukrainian aid was the wrong thing to do. We came to that conclusion on our own. Carlson is popular not because he shapes the discussion, it's because he follows the trends on social media. 

And the trends on social media? It's almost totally opposed to Ukraine on the Republican side. People are sick and tired of this war that nobody outside of the arms industry and the few remaining neocons wanted. Indeed, people on social media were absolutely furious when it was announced that the aid package passed, to the point where there was a semi-serious discussion that it was time to consider taking up arms. For me personally, it disgusted me to the point where I can no longer consider myself a patriot and thinks America deserves to fall. 

Even more infuriating was the fact that Republicans just laid down and died and did not extract a thing from the Democrats for this bill. You would think at the very least they would have gotten the border closed and illegal immigrants deported but not one thin dime went to help actual Americans. Indeed, we are doing more to enforce Ukraine's border than we are doing for our own. 

It's also pretty clear to people that actually do the research that Russia is winning the war and would be regardless of the aid Ukraine is getting. That was clear to me the second the war started but it became undeniable after Ukraine's summer offensive totally failed. Sending more aid will do nothing to actually change the course of the war. It will only prolong it. 

As for Tucker Carlson himself, I have to say that though he's not responsible for people disliking Ukraine aid, he is one of the few people out there doing true journalism. Journalists are supposed to challenge the status quo, not just parrot the party line and Carlson is doing the former, not the latter. It's a shame he reports in a format that I hate, video, otherwise I would consume his content a lot more than I do now. 

Russia destroys a TV tower in Kharkiv Ukraine, in a sign they are targeting the city.

 

The destroyed TV tower in Kharkiv. Reuters. 

Russia has destroyed a TV tower in Kharkiv, which is a sign of Russia's designs on the city. Reuters. President Zelensky said it was an effort by Russia to make the city uninhabitable. Russia has been targeting Kharkiv with missile and air strikes for weeks now and thousands have fled the city. The TV tower was hit by a KH-59 cruise missile. The pace of attacks from Russia has increased as Ukraine has ran out of air defenses and the Kharkiv region has been hard hit. 

Watch the moment the Kharkiv TV tower snaps in half and falls to the ground after the Russian attack.

The broadcasting signal was disrupted, and no casualties were reported.https://t.co/hhEnBfNWIW pic.twitter.com/5tYPvnIUqF

— Sky News (@SkyNews) April 22, 2024

My Comment:

The destruction of a single TV tower is not that significant in the big scheme of things. The tower has been attacked before and the attack is most notable as it was very impressive that the cruise missile managed to hit that tower so effectively. It was a very good shot.  

It's also telegraphing that Russia's next major target will be Kharkov. The city, now know by it's Ukrainian name Kharkiv, is a strategic and symbolic target for Russia. It's a major Russia-speaking city that functions as Ukraine's 2nd city. Taking the city would be a huge victory. 

The problem the Russians face is that urban combat is an absolute mess under the best of times but is even worse when there are civilians everywhere. It's why they are targeting things like this TV tower and Ukraine's power generation. They want to make the city uninhabitable so these civilians will evacuate. That should make the city at least a little easier to capture. 

The real question is if Russia is going to have a major summer offensive or if they will continue their general offensive on a lower, less intense scale. There are arguments for both as Russia has had quite a bit of success with their more limited attacks. Indeed, just today they took the town of Ocheretino, which is west of Avdiika. The town was the center of their new defense line after evacuating that city and from what I understand that town fell extremely fast because Ukrainian soldiers fled the battlefield. 

Of course you would not know that if you only watch mainstream media. In the real world the fall of Ocheretino was a much bigger story than the destruction of one TV tower, but guess which one has dozens of articles in western sources while the other does not? Indeed, this post was going to be about the fall of Ocheretino but there were no western sources to use. 

Ocheretino shows that Russia's current strategy of airstrikes and pressure followed by infantry assaults is working, but there is a real temptation for a big "arrow" attack with concentrated forces. Doing so could help pain the map in a big way and could also lead to a major collapse of Ukrainian forces. And that could end the war. 

But the problem is that offensive warfare is a lot harder than defensive warfare and a major attack could cause tremendous casualties. Though Ukraine's military is obviously showing cracks and is rapidly running out of troops, the problem is that they can still do damage. If the offensive isn't effective Russia could damage their troops for no real gain. 

It's also possible that this is another feint. Though Russia appears to be gathering forces this might be misdirection and the attack could come somewhere else. Russia could attack some place where Ukraine's forces are weak and are falling apart. And they just might want to continue their effective tactics they are using now. 

White House condemns pro-Hamas protesters at Columbia University

 

Pro-Hamas protesters at Columbia University in New York. Politico/AP.

The White House has condemned pro-Hamas protesters at Columbia University in New York City. Politico. Biden condemned antisemitism at the campus after video showed protesters yelling and Jewish students saying "October 7th will be every day for you". Protesters have occupied portions of Columbia University for five days now. A Jewish Rabbi recommended for the 300 Jewish students that go to Columbia to "leave and never come back". Police swarmed the site on Thursday and arrested 100 protesters, but it did little to quell the protests. 

My Comment:

This is yet another example of the schizophrenic and bizarre policy the Biden administration has on Israel and Judaism in general. There appears to be no rhyme or reason as to their policy when it comes to this subject. Biden will condemn these protests but is also critical of Israel's behavior during the war. But not the one bad thing that Israel did, the bombing of an Iranian embassy in Syria. That got such a free pass that Biden defended Israel with our weapons. Today news broke that Biden is going to sanction a IDF unit while at the same time ordering our military to defend Israel. It's nuts. 

I am not sure if this just regular Biden incompetence or if they are unable to balance the pro-Hamas and pro-Israel sides of their party. Incompetence is always a possibility for the Biden administration and I don't want to discount it. But them talking out of both sides of their mouth might be because Biden needs both groups to vote for him in November if he is to have any chance of winning. 

I do think that American Jews are paying a price for supporting the far left. It was only a matter of time before they turned on them, the far left turns on anyone. They are a large group of people that follow trends and I doubt any of them actually know or care what is happening in Gaza. They just want to bully people who they think deserve it. 

I also think that any Jew that votes for the Democrats at this point is beyond foolish. Doing so is not going to work out for them, as the real power in the Democratic Party is the activist class. They are winning their war for the control of the party. 

Indeed, antisemitism seems to be increasing on both sides of the political spectrum. There are some of the people on the right that seem to hate Israel and Jews just as much as these Hamas supporters on campus at Columbia. I never really understood that, whatever sins the Israelis have, they are dramatically overshadowed by the sins of their Muslim enemies. 

As for the protests themselves, they aren't going to accomplish anything. Protests rarely accomplish anything in the first place. But I guarantee that nobody in Israel cares about what is happening in Columbia University. Israel will continue to do what it wants and even if these protests put pressure on Biden, Biden has little to no influence on Israel at this point. In global terms it's a lot of sound and fury that signifies nothing. 

But for the normal people that go to Columbia? This is a disaster for them. Even if you aren't Jewish it would be threatening to see people support the actions of Hamas on October 7th. And if you are Jewish? Then you are getting blamed for things you have nothing to do with and could even be in physical danger. It's not like people haven't died during protests or anything, I'd be concerned to be around a protest like this no matter what the cause is. Especially since the police aren't shutting it down. 

If there is good news is that this is mostly an internal squabble between Democrats, most Republicans aren't at risk from campus idiocy. And both sides in this conflict are going to be angry at Joe Biden for trying to thread the needle between both sides. And it's very likely that many of these folks will not be turning out to vote for Joe Biden... 

House passes funding bill for Ukraine war...

 

Speaker Mike Johnson. Reuters. 

The House has passed a funding bill that gives $61 billion to fund the Ukraine war. Reuters. The unusual bill was also bundled with money for Israel and Taiwan and would ban the app TikTok. The bill will come up for a vote in the Senate and will likely be signed into law by Joe Biden. 112 Republicans opposed the bill saying that it was too expensive and did not have any funds for securing the American border. Supporters of the bill waved Ukrainian flags in Congress, which is a breach of decorum. House Speaker Mike Johnson had faced threats that he could be removed if he allowed the bill to go to a vote but nothing came of it.

My Comment:

This is the most despicable thing that congress has ever done. Not one cent should go to the Nazis in Ukraine (and I don't think it is a coincidence that this was voted for on 4/20, which was Hitler's birthday). Of course the fact that Ukraine has Nazis is always ignored by the same people that say everyone to the right of Obama is one. 

What is worse is the fact that the war is pretty much lost at this point. Ukraine wasn't losing because they didn't have enough funding, they are losing because Russia has more troops and better weapons than Ukraine. Ukraine is so desperate for troops that they lowered the age of the draft and is now drafting young people to fight. Given the demographics of Ukraine and the small size of the generation now being drafted, Ukraine is now eating their seed corn. When this war is over, Ukraine as a culture won't exist in a meaningful way. 

$61 billion won't fix the lack of troops that Ukraine has. It won't fix the technological advantage Russia has. It won't stop the rain of KAB glide bombs that are devastating Ukraine's front lines. It won't fix the corruption that has diverted billions of dollars that should have gone to fighting the war or managing the state into the hands of corrupt politicians. And it won't do a thing to actually win the war. 

The Republican base is furious about this, and for good reason. Not only is the Ukraine bill an absolute slap in the face for a party that is now anti-war, it wasn't bundled in with any Republican priorities like the border chaos that needs to be fixed. Indeed, there were no domestic wins here at all, unless you happen to work for a military contractor. Getting some kind of priority passed would have done a lot to make this poison pill easier to swallow and GOP leadership in the House didn't even do that. Banning TikTok is not anywhere near enough. 

The obvious question is why this even came up for a vote, and the answer probably is that someone either bribed or threatened Mike Johnson. He had been adamant that no Ukraine vote would happen without a border bill but he turned like a dime. Given that Tucker Carlson was talking about the other day that congressional leadership is terrified of the Intel community because they can plant illegal pornography on their computers, perhaps that is what happened? Either way, it's a betrayal and it's a shame that he hasn't been kicked out of his chair. We absolutely didn't get rid of Kevin McCarthy to get someone who would do exactly the same thing that he would have done. 

This spending hasn't been paid for either, it's going to be paid for by printing out new money. This will, of course, lead to a bigger deficit and more inflation. Inflation that the American people can hardly afford. It's just another example of Congress doing things for themselves and not the people they supposedly serve. 

Will there be fallout from this? I would hope so. I've got to say that nothing has radicalized me than seeing these traitors waving their stupid Ukraine flags while spending our money on a ridiculous cause. I honestly don't think America even deserves to survive at this point, but I am guessing that not everyone agrees with me. Either way, if it wasn't for Donald Trump running 2024, I think Republicans would face being wiped out in 2024, if it wasn't for the fact that the Democrats are going to be just as furious with Congress for funding Israel...

Breaking news: Israel launches an attack on Iran...

 

Benjamin Netanyahu. Israeli Government Photo.

Israel has launched a retaliatory strike against Iran in response to their attack this weekend. Reuters. The attack is a response to the massive missile and drone strike Iran launched last weekend that was mostly ineffective. Iranian media reported explosions in the Isfahan province, where many of Iran's nuclear facilities reside. Flights have also been rerouted in Iran in response to the explosions. Israel had said they were going to respond to Iran's attack on April 13th. 

Live updates:

ABC News

Haaretz

My Comment:

There is not a whole lot of information about this and rumors are flying. The news media is about an hour behind the events and the events are rapidly changing. I am also hearing reports of attacks in Syria and Iraq as well, but western media has been silent about it. It's unclear if those are related to these attacks or not, but it would be a massive coincidence if it wasn't. As  always, information could quickly get out of date. 

Regardless of the details, this is not a welcome development. Israel had a perfect off-ramp with any conflict with Iran. Iran's strike against them was a total failure and did very little actual damage. There wasn't a need to retaliate because each side had saved face. Israel could claim victory because they shot down most of the attack and Iran could claim victory as well as they showed a strong response to Israel's attack on Iran's embassy. 

But that didn't happen and now I am afraid we are going to see an actual war. It won't be a high intensity conflict like the Ukraine war, but I could see these tit-for-tat attacks continuing for a long time until one side either runs out of weapons or simply gets bored with the conflict. We also might see attacks on Israel from Iran's proxies, including Hezbollah. 

Will the United States be drawn into the war? I am not sure. Biden made it clear that they did not support any attacks on Iran from Israel and Iran has refrained from attacking US forces in Iraq and Syria. Right now there doesn't seem to be much of a reason for Iran to attack us and our only involvement should be to defend Israel from further attacks. 

I still have fears that America could indeed be drawn into the war. I don't think it would be in Iran's best interests to launch an attack on us, but Israel might have motivation to do so. If there is a major loss of life on Israel's side we would probably join the war. And that could leave us vulnerable from attacks from Iran. Both our troops in Iraq and Syria and our civilians are home could be under threat due to Iran's expertise in unconventional warfare. 

I think that Joe Biden has a lot of blame for all of this. He has no influence in either Israel or Iran. He told Iran not to strike Israel and they did. And he told Israel to not strike Iran and they did. It's clear that neither side is listening to the senile dotard currently occupying the White House. If there is a peace deal to be made, it is going to have to come from some other country than the United States as long as Biden is in the White House. Perhaps Russia or China? 

Biden bizarrely and falsely suggests his uncle was eaten by cannibals in World War II.

 

Joe Biden. New York Post/Reuters.

Joe Biden falsely claimed that his uncle was eaten by cannibals in World War II. New York Post. Biden said that his uncle, 2nd Lt. Ambrose J. Finnegan, had crashed in New Guinea after being shot down and the body was never recovered because of cannibals. Finnegan and two others died in a plane crash after his A-20 Havoc, which he was a passenger, went down in the Pacific. One person survived the crash and was rescued. Biden then used the false story to attack Trump with another false story that claimed that he skipped a memorial for veterans in Paris and called veterans "suckers and losers". Documentation showed that Trump did indeed speak at a memorial event in France before the trip ended and that the first event was canceled due to the Navy saying helicopter travel would be unsafe. The "suckers and losers" quote was also debunked by former Trump administration officials, including ones that were critical of the President. Biden often regales people with false stories from his past. 

 

Biden, for the third time in less than 24 hours, tells the dubious story about his "Uncle Bosey" and "a lot of cannibals" in New Guinea before repeating the debunked "suckers and losers" hoax.

He also claims D-Day was on a Sunday (it was on a Tuesday).

HE IS NOT WELL. pic.twitter.com/iqeOjjFY0v

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) April 17, 2024

 

Biden, for the third time in less than 24 hours, tells the dubious story about his "Uncle Bosey" and "a lot of cannibals" in New Guinea before repeating the debunked "suckers and losers" hoax.

He also claims D-Day was on a Sunday (it was on a Tuesday).

HE IS NOT WELL. pic.twitter.com/iqeOjjFY0v

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) April 17, 2024

The military records for 2nd Lt. Ambrose J. Finnegan can be found here. 

My Comment:

If Donald Trump had said something so ridiculous it would be the biggest story in the world. But because this is Joe Biden we are talking about the only one that appears to be talking about this outside of social media is the New York Post. Thankfully they put out an article at least, but you would think the rest of the media would be fact checking Biden here. 

I do wonder how on earth Biden came up with this story? Is he the liar or is his family? Given that he lied about Donald Trump right after I am assuming he would come up with it. Why didn't his handlers fact check him? None of this makes any sense. 

You would also think that Biden would be called racist for this. Though there were cannibals active in World War II in New Guinea, and may be today, the truth has never stopped accusations of racism before. I'm guessing a lot of woke people don't believe that cannibals even exist. My grandpa also fought in New Guinea and he showed me pictures of headhunters in New Guinea. To be fair, I didn't see any pictures of the natives there eating people, but it's not like the idea of cannibals in New Guinea is unrealistic.  

But that's obviously not what happened. What actually happened to Lt. Finnegan is that his plane went down in the Pacific. His body wasn't recovered because it sank with the bomber he was flying in. He didn't get shot down, the plane had a malfunction and crashed. Basically nothing Biden said here was true.

Is this an example of Biden's senility? The first video seems like he was barely awake but the fact that he said the same basic story makes me think that he is just making things up again. Biden was a liar long before he went senile and he has had huge numbers of lies over the years. It's just the kind of person Biden is, he's a lying liar who lies. 

What is even worse is that Biden is also lying about Donald Trump. The "suckers and losers" hoax has been debunked for years now, it's insane that he's still repeating such a lie. Even people that had a grudge against Trump, like John Bolton, said that the story was false. Biden should know this but he repeats the lie anyways... 

Ukraine says it ran out of anti-air missiles during a Russian missile strike on a power station.

 

File photo of an Ukrainian  AN/TWQ-1 Avenger. Reuters.

Ukraine says it ran out of anti-air missiles during a Russian missile attack on a power station. Reuters. The attack last week destroyed a major power station in Kiev. President Zelensky said Russia had fired 11 missiles at the power station and Ukraine was able to intercept 7 of them but did not have enough missiles to destroy the last 4. Zelensky also warned that Ukraine could be out of missiles entirely soon. Russia has been attacking Ukraine's non-nuclear electrical plants and have 7 gigawatts worth of power generation. Russia said the attacks were meant to degrade Ukraine's ability to fight and in response to Ukrainian attacks on Russia. Ukraine says they need 25 Patriot missile systems to properly defend their airspace, though allies have been reluctant to send any more. 

My Comment:

For anyone paying attention to the war, the fact that Ukraine is running out of air defenses is not surprising. Indeed, Ukraine has had many of their Patriot launches destroyed along with other air defenses and are now basically out to the point where Russia is now able to use their air weapons fairly freely. 

What is different is that Zelensky and Ukraine is admitting this so freely. I know why they are doing so, they want more missiles and if they admit they are in trouble they might convince people to send them to Ukraine. 

But the problem is that I doubt there are all that many Patriot missiles left in the world. Indeed, instead of the 25 they are demanding, they are getting one, from Germany. One missile system is a joke and won't be able to do much of anything to destroy any Russian missiles and could only defend a small section of Ukraine's territory. 

And things are going to be a lot worse after the Iranian strike on Israel. That attack ended up using a huge amount of anti-air missiles. Many of those were of Israeli origin, but Jordan and Saudi Arabia used their weapons as well and that means the demand from these weapons is going to be even higher. And I am guessing that American Patriots that might have been given to Israel if the military assistance bill passed will now go to Israel instead. 

Without more weapons what does this mean for Ukraine? It means that they are going to have to shepherd their remaining weapons. They are going to have to leave their front lines undefended and try to concentrate their remaining weapons on critical infrastructure and their command and control network. 

That means that Russia's devastating KAB weapons, glide bombs similar to American J-DAM's, will continue to pulverize the front lines. Without air defenses, Russia can send KAB strikes on Ukrainian positions and destroy them easily. Not only is that hugely demoralizing to Ukrainian fighters, it's going to make gaps in Ukraine's lines that Russia can pour through. Not that the air defenses have been that effective anyways, Russia has figured out how to counter Patriot missile batteries and there is a reason why Ukraine has such a need, they brought their systems closer to the front lines and they lost many of them.  

Of course the other major problem is that Ukraine is now suffering under Russia's attacks on their electricity. Most of Ukraine's non-nuclear plants have been hit, if not destroyed and their power generation is limited. Most of their power now comes from their nuclear plants, which haven't been hit for obvious reasons, and whatever they can buy from Europe. 

This will obviously make just about everything in the world more difficult for Ukraine. Even the power situation will get worse even with their surviving plants not being able to keep up with demand. This will cause outages and transformer explosions. Whatever industrial production Ukraine still has will stop and the people are going to be under extreme pressure. Russia should have done this during Winter to increase the hardship and put pressure on the Ukrainian government but supposedly Putin didn't do it for humanitarian reasons. 

The war probably won't last much longer with Russian air superiority. Ukraine isn't likely to last much longer with their power out and their front line troops getting wiped out. And all that is before Russia launches their supposed summer offensive... Though a quick collapse is unlikely, I do think we will start to see Russia advance their front lines at a higher pace. 

Biden administration says Israel will be on their own on any offensive attacks on Iran.

 

The Israeli war cabinet. ABC News/AFP.

The Biden administration has told Israel that they will not assist in any reprisal attacks against Iran. ABC News. Biden has said that support for Israel will be "iron clad", but he has also made clear that he will not participate in any bombing of Iran. They also said that they would support Israel defensively if there is another attack from Iran. Iran launched a major drone and missile strike against Israel but the attack was defeated due to Israel's air defenses as well as assistance provided by America and other countries. Israel is weighing its options and said they will respond to the attack, but are under major pressure to not start a war. Biden has been critical of the war between Israel and Hamas. 

My Comment:

It looks like cooler heads are prevailing in the Middle East. There was a fear that a major war between Israel and Iran would break out but it seems possible that a war could be avoided. The Biden Administration has somehow made the right choice here. 

Does that mean that Israel will do nothing? It's possible. I think that's what most people want but there is the question of face. Israel defeated Iran's attack but they could be seen as weak if they do not strike back. They could launch a fighter strike against targets in Iran, though doing so would be difficult. 

But I don't think a strike is at all necessary. The strikes ended in a way that both sides can save face. Israel was able to intercept the vast majority of the missiles and drones shot at them and can rightly claim victory. Iran was able to send a message and can claim victory as well because a few missiles got through. This could very easily be the end of it. 

There are other concerns as well. Israel has used a large amount of their defensive weapons in this weekends action. And they have been under pressure since the October 7th attack. There is a real danger they could run out of weapons if they provoke Iran into another attack. To be fair, Iran might not have a whole lot of weapons left either, but the success they had this weekend might not be repeated if a 2nd strike comes. 

There is also the question of how they would even reach Iran in the first place. In order to do so they would either have to fly through Syria or Jordan and then Iraq just to reach Iranian airspace. If they go through Syria they would have to deal with their air defenses and if they go through Jordan they would need permission, which they aren't likely to get. 

My hope is that this is basically over. The last thing we need right now is a tit for tat Israeli-Iran strikes and a major war. That could eventually draw the United States into a war, a war that we can't really handle anymore. It seems very likely that this will be avoided right now. We may have dodged a fairly bad bullet here. 

Fishing: New species!

 

Something a little different today, I went fishing and I caught something new. I believe the above fish is a quillback, also known as a quillback carpsucker. I am not 100% sure that it isn't something else, but given the high fin and deeply forked tail, I am pretty sure. 

I caught it semi-legit. Carpsuckers are bottom feeding fish and I caught this one on a bladebait. I am guessing I snagged it but my hook was in its lip. I probably just ran into it with my lure as I doubt it was trying to eat the large bladebait I was using. Still, since it was hooked in the lip, it was a fair catch so I am counting it, unlike the lake whitefish I caught this spring which I snagged in the back. 

I was fishing with my Dad and he may have caught a new species as well. He caught a 19 inch fish that may have been a sauger but I am thinking was a hybrid between a sauger and a walleye, a saugeye. Why? It had the blotches and spots on the fin but it was also a lighter color and had the white patch on the tail fin. I don't have a picture of that one but my dad ended up keeping it. The place we went fishing has an open season for all three species year round so it was ok to keep it, which was for the best since it swallowed the hook. 

We also caught a couple of decent smallmouth bass, both on minnows. Mine was pretty small, around 12 or 13 inches, while my Dad's was probably 14 or 15. We couldn't keep those though as they are out of season, and I'm not sure if we would keep bass anyways. 

Regardless, it was nice to go out fishing on a very nice spring day. It was warm out and we saw lots of wildlife besides the fish, including cranes and an osprey. I am hoping to go fishing more this year than I did last year, I did not have much luck when I did go. But the constant overtime I was working since last May has finally trailed off so I should be able to go fishing more. 

Iran launches over 200 drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles at Israel...

 

Israeli air defenses operating in Ashkelon. Yahoo News. 

Iran has launched a major strike against Israel for the first time ever, with over 200 drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles being fired. Yahoo News. The attack was in retaliation for the April 1st Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria. Most of the drones and missiles were destroyed, either by Israel's air defenses or by allied fighter jets, including from the United States. Iran said that the attack is considered "done" as long Israel does not respond, but vowed an even bigger attack if any retaliation happens. It is unclear how many casualties the attack caused but it is assumed to be light. 

The following networks have live updates for this story. 

ABC News. 

NBC News. 

Fox News

The Guardian

My Comment:

As expected the de facto war between Iran and Israel has now become de jure. Everyone was expecting a major attack from Iran and it is now here. Nobody is surprised about this and it is also not surprising that nothing much was accomplished. 

Indeed, I think Iran absolutely had to respond to the attack on their embassy. Embassies are considered the soil of the country that owns them and to not respond to a direct attack on one is to lose face. Iran was pretty much forced to respond to such an attack and it should have been no surprise that this happened. 

As I said before, I have rarely been critical of Israel during their war against Hamas, but I was critical of their attack on Iran's embassy for this very reason. Though I have little doubt that Iran was coordinating attacks on Israel via the embassy, that's not a good reason to attack one because the obvious potential it has to start a war. And now the war has started. 

There is still a chance that a major war could be averted. Iran has said that they consider the matter closed unless Israel responds. If cooler heads were to prevail a major war could be averted. All it would take is for Israel to not respond to this attack, which in theory could be easy as the attack appears to have mostly failed. 

In practice I doubt that would happen. Indeed, Israel has said that they are going to respond to this attack sooner rather than later. That could lead to a tit for tat series of attacks by both sides responding to each other and eventually a major war. That is seeming more and more likely despite the fairly limited attack that was launched. Iran has also vowed to attack anyone that helps Israel if they attack as well, so the whole thing could spiral out into a larger regional war. 

America is likely to be drawn into the war. Indeed, we are already participating in it since we helped the Israelis shoot down missiles and drones. The good news is that US bases in Syria and Iraq were not attacked as of this writing so it's possible that we could avoid that outcome as well, as long as we don't directly support any Israeli strike on Iran. The big question now is how big that strike will be and if we participate in it. 

I do think that all of this could have been prevented. I don't think the war with Hamas would have happened under Donald Trump, or even Barack Obama. More importantly, if Biden hadn't ruined his relationship with Israel, he might have been able to convince them to not strike the Iranian embassy. But as it stands now, Biden has little influence with Israel and I don't think he can stop this war from spiraling out of control. 

With that being said, I don't agree with this being the start of World War III, or even another war the size of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. I'm expecting more of the same, long range missile and drone strikes with perhaps some old school airstrikes thrown in. Indeed, if Israel does respond to this attack, I expect it to be with their F-35 fighters sometime in the next 24 hours. 

Either way though, neither Israel or Iran really has the capability to destroy or invade each other. They don't share a border and it's not like either side can get their forces across Iraq and Syria to strike each other directly. All they can really do is the missile strikes and drones, neither of which will accomplish much. Israel's air strikes could do more but they don't have the airpower needed to destroy Iran's ability to make war on them. Indeed, the Red Sea conflict calmed down because the Houthis ran out of weapon, not because of airstrikes against them. That means that we will probably see a lot more strikes that don't really accomplish anything. 

What does concern me is the possibility of terror attacks, either inspired by the conflict or launched by parties involved in it. I have said for awhile now that I think there are Iranian and Hezbollah fighters inside the United States considering how open our border is. If the war does get serious we should expect attacks here in the United States... 

White House offers condolences to OJ Simpson's family...

 

OJ Simpson after being acquitted. New York Post/AP.

The White House offered condolences to OJ Simpson's family after his death but did not offer any for the two people he was accused of murdering. New York Post. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said “Our thoughts are with his families [sic] during this difficult time — obviously with his family and loved ones,”. Simpson was reported dead of prostate cancer today at the age of 76 and was a famous football player and actor. However, he was most well known for the "trial of the century" where he was acquitted of the murders of his ex-wife Nicole Brown Simpson and her friend, Ron Goldman. Brown had also accused Simpson of being physically abusive during their marriage. 

My Comment:

The tone-deafness of the White House continues. And I have to say Karine Jean-Pierre is one of the worst press-secretary we have ever had. The press secretary should not be making news for her own comments, her job is to make the President's accomplishments make the news. 

Expressing condolences for the death of a man that the vast majority of people think of as a double murderer is, quite frankly, baffling. Does Karine Jean-Pierre think that O.J. Simpson was not guilty? Does she even know who OJ Simpson is? That seems impossible since she's 49 and was absolutely around for the trial. Was this on purpose? Some kind of snide commentary on race relations? Or a deliberate attempt to outrage people?

What would have been a better response? No comment. Or, failing that, expressing sadness for his family but also acknowledging that he was a likely murderer and wife beater. There's absolutely no reason to not mention that he probably killed two people, unless you are going to be smart about it and ignore the issue entirely. 

Regardless, I am kind of surprised that OJ's death isn't bigger news. For people that are too young, it's easy to not understand how important the OJ trial was. It was the biggest news story in the world and the whole world was paying attention when it happened. I still remember watching the OJ Simpson police chase. And it's not every day that a huge celebrity goes on trial for a double homicide. It was a huge story and it will remain one for the foreseeable future. 

It also exposed how bad race relations were in the country in the time and it would show in the future how certain groups cared more about scoring points during a trial than actually proving guilt or innocence. Very few people actually thought that OJ was innocent but they celebrated his acquittal nonetheless. 

As for OJ himself, it is strange to see him go. I do think he killed his wife and Ron Goldman, so I am not exactly mourning him. And he was also absolutely guilty of the crime that got him sent to prison many years later. Despite his career as an actor and sports star, he should always be remembered for what he was. A criminal. 

Biden vows ironclad support of Israel as rumors of a strike from Iran continue.

 

Joe Biden. BBC/Reuters. 

Joe Biden has vowed "ironclad" support of Israel as rumors of a strike coming from Iran continue. BBC. Biden said that Iran is threatening to launch a significant attack against Israel after the country attacked an Iranian embassy in Syria. Iran has said that the attack on the embassy will be treated like an attack on the country itself. Biden appears to be talking out of both sides of his mouth with the comments as he has also criticized Israel's conduct in the Gaza war and has called for a cease fire. Biden has also been trying to use backchannel diplomacy to try and get Iran to back down from attack plans. 

My Comment:

Once again, Biden has chosen the wrong side of every issue. Biden has been extremely critical of Israel's conduct in Gaza, which is not something I have a problem with at all, Hamas deserves whatever it gets and more. But he is not criticizing Israel's attack on a foreign embassy? How does that make sense? How does any of this make sense? 

Worse, Biden is committing us to a war against Iran that nobody wants. If Israel is attacked than Biden has said we would help them. That's pretty insane since Israel is the one that started the problem by attacking an embassy in the first place. Usually when a war of choice is started the allies are not obligated to join it. 

To be fair, we would probably be drawn into the war anyways. Iran is likely to attack US forces in Syria and Iraq as well. They have proven that they can do so in the past and would likely do so in the future. They won't want the threat that US bases would cause to their operations in Syria and Iraq and would want their supply lines protected. And they would probably assume that America would be joining the war anyways. 

The war could happen at any time now. Today is the last day of Ramadan and Iran might want to launch an attack afterwards. I would expect large missile strikes from Iran itself targeting both Israel and US targets in Iraq and Syria. I would also expect direct attacks from Iranian proxies, special forces and allies like Hezbollah and the Houthis. I am not expecting any kind of weapons of mass destruction, but we could see a major conventional attack with possible terrorism involved as well. 

I do think if America does get involved in a war with Iran it would be extremely unpopular. Most people on the left seem like they would support Iran over Israel, even if they did attack US forces in Iraq and Syria. And the right is just sick and tired of war and aren't likely to support yet another war in the Middle East. And that's assuming the war goes well, there is a decent chance that we take serious casualties. Given the performance of our intelligence agencies I would not be surprised if any attack ends up catching them by their pants down. 

Of course, there is a chance that nothing will happen. If that's the case I think it will be more to do with Iran not wanting a major fight right now over Biden's backchannel diplomacy. Though I admit that it takes time to prepare a major attack, you would have thought that they would have hit Israel by now. But honestly, I think it is very possible that a war is on its way. 

Arizona Supreme Court rules that law banning abortion can be enforced...

 

Pro-life demonstrators. BBC.

The Arizona Supreme Court has ruled that an 1864 law banning almost all abortion can go into effect. BBC. The law would ban all abortion except when the mother's life was at risk and would make it a felony to perform one with a penalty of two to five years in prison. The law superseded a more recent law that allowed  abortion up to 15 weeks. It is unclear if the law will be enforced and the Court said that there would be a two week stay as the case was sent back to lower courts. The decision has major implications for the 2024 election as there may now be a proposal for a ballot measure that would re-legalize abortion. Senate candidate Kari Lake said she opposed the decision. 

My Comment:

Abortion is not something I write about often since my own beliefs on the issue are esoteric and not strongly held. Unlike most people in the Republican Party, I don't have strong beliefs either way. I lean pro-life but that's probably tribalism more than anything else. 

So why write about it? It's pretty clear that the Democrat's 2024 strategy is going to be about abortion. They are depending on the issue to spur turnout among their young female voters and the Supreme Court ruling against Roe v Wade. And that is what this ruling will do in Arizona as well. 

Arizona is, ostensibly, a swing state and the idea is if that there is a ballot measure legalizing abortion then Democrats will turn out in droves to vote for it, energizing voters that are otherwise disgusted or disappointed in Joe Biden. That's the idea at least, there is a chance that it could backfire as it could turn out pro-life voters as well.

The whole thing could be moot if both sides in Arizona could come up with a compromise. The 2022 bill that this ruling canceled seemed like a good compromise, no abortions after 15 weeks but unlimited abortions before that. Neither side got what they wanted 100% but both sides got some of what they wanted. You would think that both sides would want to go from there but I don't see it. The pro-life people won't accept any abortion and the pro-choice won't accept any restrictions, and they also sense the political utility of the issue. 

It's possible the lower courts will review this and end up reversing course and the Arizona Supreme Court could go long with it. But if that doesn't happen then Arizona is probably going to go blue. Out of all the swing states, Arizona was already the one I expected the Democrats to keep, even if all of the other ones go red. I don't trust the elections there at all, but it's possible that abortion could turn out the vote enough that the Democrats could win without cheating. 

I do think that Donald Trump (and Kari Lake) understands that abortion is a losing issue for Republicans. Most people don't like the extreme position on either side and don't want abortion totally banned. They don't want abortion after birth either, but memories of that fiasco in Virginia are pretty old and the discussions about abortion bans are very fresh. Hence Trump making comments about ensuring that the big three exceptions (rape, incest and mother's health) and saying he won't call for a federal abortion ban. 

Will it be enough? I don't know. Abortion could be the Achilles heel for Republicans in 2024. Most other indicators are very good for Trump and the Republicans. The economy is bad, foreign policy is a disaster, people are angry at just about every Biden policy and the Democrats are hemorrhaging voters from young people, blacks and hispanics. Abortion becoming a dominant issue won't fix those problems but it could increase turnout for single issue pro-choice voters... 

Zelensky says Ukraine will lose the war against Russia without US aid.

 

Zelensky. New York Post/Getty.

Ukrainian President Zelensky says that Ukraine will lose the war against Russia if congress does not pass additional aid. New York Post. Zelensky said that if Ukraine loses the war, other countries could be attacked. Aid has been held up in Congress by Republicans who think that Ukraine has gotten enough money. $100 billion in aid has already been delivered to Ukraine. They are also demanding that any aid to Ukraine be paired with spending cuts and border controls to deal with the border crisis. 

My Comment:

I know Zelensky's job is to try and continue the war until the last Ukrainian is dead, but the idea that Ukraine could win the war at this point is laughable, regardless if more aid is voted for. Ukraine simply doesn't have the manpower to continue the fight much longer and the weapons that are supposed to be sent there don't actually exist. 

I also don't believe for a second that Russia would actually attack any further countries. What other territorial ambitions do they have? Maybe reconnecting Kaliningrad? They wouldn't really have a reason to do that and I don't think the Baltic states are under any real threat either. The war in Ukraine was mostly about protecting Russia's territory and Russian people in Ukraine, I don't think that motivation transfers to other countries at the moment. 

This is an important story though because as far as I know it's the first admission that Zelensky knows that he's losing. For the longest time Ukraine has been claiming that Russia is losing and that they were only a few billion dollars away from beating them for good, despite the facts on the ground that pretty obviously show otherwise. I don't know if this admission is the start of Zelensky fleeing the country or just a momentary lapse in his judgement. 

I don't think any aid should be passed for Ukraine under any circumstances, but holding it up in order to get concessions from the Democrats is a good idea. The Democrats won't vote for a bill that has border security or budget cuts in it, so it should be DOA if the Freedom Caucus gets its way. 

If a bill does pass it will be seen, correctly, as a slap in the face to Americans everywhere. People are sick of the Ukraine war and can't understand why we have to send even more money and equipment to the country. Especially when there are so many problems here at home, and even other conflicts that people care about more, like the war in Israel. It could even cost Republicans in 2024, what point is there in voting for Republicans if they just do whatever the Democrats want anyways? 

Regardless, it's a moot point, Ukraine isn't going to win the war anyways. All the bill would do is create a lot of pork for districts with defense industry factories. Which is the point anyways. Congress knows that Ukraine can't win the war but there is a lot of opportunity for pork and graft in sending billions of dollars to Ukraine. Given how corrupt Ukraine is, I am betting more than a little bit of that money will make it back to the people that voted for it...