Houthi rebels launched multiple ballistic missiles and drone attacks on commercial shipping in the Gulf of Aden. ABC News. The attack started in the morning with a ballistic missile being fired at bulk carrier, missing the ship. The USS Carney, a Arleigh Burke class Destroyer which has been involved in several incidents in the Gulf of Aden, responded to the attack and intercepted and destroyed a drone in the area. 30 minutes later the same ship was hit by a ballistic missile and the Carney responded again, shooting down another drone. Two additional bulk carriers were hit with ballistic missiles again and suffered minor casualties. The Carney shot done one more drone responding to that attack. The Houthis say the ships were targeted due to their connection to Israel and the Israel-Hamas war. The Houthis have stepped up attacks on both Israel and the Gulf of Aden, resorting to piracy in some cases, and have even taken a ship.
My Comment:
These attacks are a major escalation in a conflict that is already in danger of starting another major war. These attacks mostly failed, with little damage being done and nobody getting killed, and that's probably the reason we aren't at war right now.
The USS Carney has had a very busy cruise in the Gulf of Aden the last few months. It seems that they are the ones involved whenever there is a big story in the region. They have shot down missiles and drones and have responded to pirate attacks. And they were key in this story as well. I doubt any of the sailors on the ship were expecting such an eventful tour!
It's unclear how much damage this attack did. Most of the ships suffered minor damage at best but there were rumors that one of them was close to sinking. I think that fate was avoided though as if it had happened we would have heard about it by now.
It's also unclear what exactly these ballistic missiles are. I know Iran has some anti-ship ballistic missiles but I didn't know they have given them to the Houthi rebels. Either way, I am not too impressed by their results. They have launched several of these missiles now and have not destroyed any ships. Perhaps though that is just good luck and the next attack could destroy a ship or kill someone.
As for the drones, I'm not sure if these were recon drones trying to analyze the success or failures of the missile strikes, or if they were attack drones. The media seems to be going with the 2nd interpretation and it would make sense. But the drones have not proven effective as the USS Carney has become quite good at shooting them down, to the point where I am wondering if they are going to run out of anti-drone defenses.
Given the result of these attacks and the various incidents of piracy on the open seas, I think that we are going to see a war with the Houthis sooner rather than later. Attacks on shipping is not something that is tolerating and the Gulf of Aden is a critical shipping route. If it is closed, shipping will have to route through the Mediterranean Sea and eventually around the Cape of Good hope in Africa. That's a huge delay and will cost companies millions, if not billions, of dollars.
That's not something I can see lasting for long without retribution. I would not be surprised if we some kind of response from the United States military. I don't think we will be invading Yemen anytime soon, and if we did it would not go well, just ask the Saudis. But I would not be surprised if we see drone or airstrikes hitting Houthi leadership or missile launchers.
And we should not underestimate the Houthis. They fought the Saudi government to a standstill in their war and are extremely well armed and well equipped for a rebel group. The Iranians have been giving them all their best technology and if we were to go to war with them it will probably not be as easy as it would be against a typical terror group. I think we would still beat them, but it's very possible we could face casualties.
Iran is, of course, the elephant in the room. The Iranians have provided the Houthis with the modern weapons and equipment that have made them such a threat. And they are a proxy army for the Iranians, much like Hezbollah and the various militias that have been attacking US troops in Iraq and Syria. I don't think the Houthis would be doing these attacks if they weren't getting permission and support from Iran.
The real fear that I have is that this will spiral out of control and we will end up in a war with Iran. Such a war would be a good distraction from the failures of the Biden administration and you know that the neocons in both parties would love to see a major war so their defense contractor supporters could get a big payday.
I think for now we will probably avoid that. But a war with the Houthis at least seems pretty likely. The only way I think they avoid it is if they either stop launching attacks or if they keep having rather pathetic results. They could also run out of missiles fairly quickly at the rate they are using them. But if there is another attack and a ship gets sunk or someone gets hurt and/or killed then I think we will see a war.
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