After the failure of the summer offensive, Ukraine has launched another offensive near Kherson

 

Ukrainian soldiers fire a mortar. BBC/AFP.

After the failure of the summer offensive, Ukraine has launched another offensive near Kherson. BBC. Ukraine managed to capture a bridgehead across the Dnipro river south of Kherson. Russia acknowledged the bridgehead and said the troops there would be destroyed. Russians have sent reinforcements to the area. Ukraine had launched multiple attacks in the area over the spring and summer and did not have any success. Despite the advance, most of the fighting in the Ukraine war is centered around Avdiivka, with most Ukrainian units in a defensive role.

My Comment:

A desperation attack from Ukraine, and one that makes almost zero sense. Attacking across a river when you don't have air or artillery support is insane. Doing it with those things is extremely difficult, which is why Ukraine should have stayed on their side of the Dnipro and force the Russians to attack them. Instead they are attacking... again. 

The only way this makes sense is that Ukraine feels they need to make positive headlines to refocus flagging attention to the war. This has been a media war from the beginning and Ukraine needs to convince American lawmakers that they are actually winning. They aren't, and that's becoming more and more obvious.

It's also possible that the attack is an effort to draw Russian troops away from Avdiivka. Even though pro-Ukraine articles are saying that Avdiivka isn't actually that strategically important, it's actually a critical city. It's a major transportation hub and it threatens Donetsk. If it were to be retaken, and it sure looks like it will be, Ukraine would no longer be able to do anything about Donetsk and would have to cease their artillery attacks there. 

If that is their goal, I don't think it will work. Unlike Ukraine, Russia has plenty of reserves and can respond to this attack while advancing in Avdiivka as well. And given Russian air and artillery superiority these troops will be left out to dry. 

Plus, keep in mind that Russia might not want to advance quickly in Avdiivka. Russia has the troops there surrounded by three sides and can hit entrance and exit routes with artillery. Russia can replicate the slow, grinding offensive they did in Bakhmut which caused so many casualties for the Ukrainian military. 

I do think that the Ukrainian military is close to collapse. Close is a relative thing of course, they could last a year or more if things go their way. And this attack shows they are still capable of offensive operations. But they are running out of money, weapons and, most importantly, troops. Eventually they are going to run out completely and then they will collapse. 

And it might happen pretty soon. There are rumors that Zelenksy is purging his generals and the generals are not agreeing to these constant attacks. And funding has been drying up. The country does not look like it's going last much longer and, more importantly, Russia has shown absolutely no evidence of giving up the war...