Tensions between Venezuela and Guyana are increasing as Venezuela votes on annexing territory.

 

Map showing the disputed territory. France24/AFP. 

Tensions between Venezuela and Guyana are increasing as Venezuela has scheduled to vote on annexing the Essequibo region. France 24. The region has been disputed for years, but oil discoveries have increased the tensions since 2015. Another discovery last month brings Guyana's oil reserves larger than Kuwait or the UAE. The referendum would reject the 1899 compromise that set the borders between the two countries, along with granting citizenship in annexed regions and rejecting an international criminal court ruling over the dispute. Guyana said all options are on the table to defend the region, including inviting other countries to station troops in the country. 

My Comment:

This is hardly the first times tensions have been high between Venezuela and Guyana. Indeed, I wrote about it five years ago already. Much of what I wrote then still applies now, Venezuela is dramatically more powerful than Guyana and would likely win a war with them if Guyana could not get any allies. But given that Guyana would have gotten help in 2018, the war never happened. 

Today? Things are a bit different. The United States is absolutely not prepared for a war in Venezuela and neither are most other potential allies for Guyana. America's focus is on Israel right now, with Ukraine also drawing massive amounts of funds and attention. And the commonwealth nations? Same issue. 

That doesn't mean that Guyana wouldn't have help. Supposedly Brazil has been mobilizing troops near the border with Venezuela, though I don't know how true those rumors are. Regardless, Brazil would likely back Guyana if they were attacked by Venezuela. 

Would that be enough? I think it would be. Venezuela does have a large military but Brazil is more modern and has a bigger one. Guyana itself does not have much of a military, but Brazil would give them a lot of backbone. 

And even if Guyana had to fight on its own, I don't expect the war would go that well for Venezuela regardless. Invading a jungle region would be a major problem for any military, but I doubt that Venezuela would have good morale. I can't imagine fighting for a government as incompetent and pathetic as the Venezuelan government. Plus, they don't have a lot of manpower to draw from since so many people have fled their socialist government. 

Back in 2018, I though Venezuela's air power would help them win the war, but we have seen how effective air defense systems can be. Indeed, air power has largely been irrelevant in the Ukraine War and only recently, as Ukraine has run out of air defense missiles, is it starting to matter again. If I was Guyana I would be trying to modernize their air defenses as soon as possible. 

I do think that a war is possible as Venezuela may never get a better opportunity. America is weaker than we have ever been in modern history with an absolute failure as a president. By 2025, Biden will likely be out of office and there will be someone there that will have more of a backbone and will likely have the Israel-Gaza war and Ukraine-Russia war under control. Their window is closing so it might be a now or never thing. 

I also don't think there is any chance of this vote failing. Venezuela's elections are about as secure as our own and since the government wants this referendum to pass it will likely pass. When it does happen then war could happen as well. 

How likely is it? I am not sure. It didn't happen five years ago and there are a lot of reasons for Venezuela to back down, especially since I don't think they are prepared for a major war. But if it does happen I won't be that surprised.