One year before the 2024 election, Donald Trump leads Biden in five of six critical swing states.

 

CBS News poll saying most people would be better off under Trump. CBS News/YouGov.

One year before the 2024 election Donald Trump leads Joe Biden in five of six critical swing states. USA Today. Both Trump and Biden are expected to win their primary races and have a large lead in those fields. However, Biden might have an uphill climb as the polls show he is behind in critical swing states. Only in Wisconsin does Biden have a 2 point lead, near the margin of error. Trump wins by 10 points in Nevada, 6 in Georgia, 5 in Arizona and Michigan and 4 in Pennsylvania. Biden appears to be losing support among the people that voted for him in 2020, including black voters and young people. Voters trusted Trump on the economy, with Biden being trusted on abortion. 

CBS also conducted a poll that shows Trump with a large lead on the economy. 45% of votes said that Trump's policies would make them better off while 48% said that Biden would make them worse off financially. Trump was also expected to make the world a safer place and was less likely to get America involved into a new war. 73% of voters also said that things are going badly in America today. In a head to head matchup, Trump would beat Biden by 3 points, 51% to 48%. 

My Comment:

A pair of bad polls from the New York Times and CBS News for Joe Biden. Keep in mind I would say both outlets are more in favor of Biden than Trump to say the least so to see these kinds of numbers for Biden is fairly shocking. 

To be fair it is a year out from the election and not one vote has been cast in a primary election. A whole lot could happen between now and the election. Both men are old and it's possible, though extremely unlikely, that one or both could be replaced before the first vote is even cast. And given how things appear to be falling apart rapidly almost anything could happen between now and then. 

With that being said, it is still a very bad couple of polls for Biden. For him to be so far behind in these swing states is a very bad sign. The 10 point lead Trump has in Nevada is particularly shocking, though the state was hit hard by Biden's continuing Covid restrictions and they probably haven't forgotten it. The only swing state Biden seemed to even have a chance in was Wisconsin, and I can tell you people here are tired of him too. 

The economic approval is even worse for Biden. Nobody seems to be buying the idea that "Bidenomics" is helping the country. There have been several news stories lamenting the fact that people aren't buying that the economy is doing better. Largely because the economic gains have been in areas that are not helping everyday Americans. Most people remember that their grocery bills, rent and interest rates were dramatically lower under Trump compared to Biden and Biden doesn't seem to even notice or care about it. 

Foreign policy is a big issue now as well. It absolutely should have been during the 2020 election as I doubt people would have voted for Biden if he knew he was gung ho about fighting a war with Russia over Ukraine. 

Biden has been a bad president in general but it was his foreign policy where he has been an exceptional failure. Ukraine has been a disaster and there is a good chance that Ukraine will either be defeated or on the verge of being so by the time of the election. And, of course, Israel has a huge war against Hamas, which is especially bad as most people thought the region was finally calming down under Trump. I also think that people haven't forgotten about how badly he screwed up Afghanistan. 

People still support giving Israel and Ukraine aid, though that's as far as it goes. People don't want a war with Russia and they don't want a war with Iran but they understand that Biden could blunder himself in a war with one or both. Trump didn't get us into any war and was actually a competent diplomat. 

Of course the elephant in the room is that Republicans have not actually done anything to counter any of the things Democrats have done and are doing to tilt things in their favor. Trump still has a bunch of bunk charges against him. And nobody has done anything about voter harvesting, tech censorship and out and out fraud that dominated the 2020 election...