A blog about Politics, Warfare, Culture and how they interact. I comment on current events and post occasional essays.
Wednesday, November 30, 2022
Bombing targeting a religious school in Afghanistan leaves 17 dead
Tuesday, November 29, 2022
Supposedly pro-Union Joe Biden sides against unions in rail dispute.
Monday, November 28, 2022
Major protests in China against coronavirus restrictions and a major fire.
Protesters in China. CBS News/Getty.
China is facing the largest protests they have had in years as people are losing patience with the country's zero covid strategy. CBS News. People in 10 cities called for Xi Jinping to resign. China has continued with lockdowns and other restrictions long after most countries have given up the strategy. The discontent was sparked when an apartment fire in Xinjiang killed 10 people. The people trapped in the fire were unable to escape due to being locked in their apartments. Video from the fire show people begging to be let out.
My Comment:
I mentioned yesterday on Twitter that I don't expect much from these protests. Much like Iran, China has faced waves of protests before and they have always put them down, sometimes with extreme force. Indeed, I remember the pre-Coronavirus protests in Hong Kong. When is the last time you thought about that?
China is limited in what they can do. They have gone all in on zero covid and if they lift it now the communist regime will lose face. Of course if they continue with their restrictions they will lose face as protests continue. And if they crack down they will also lose face as it will show they aren't completely in control.
Losing face is also an issue with lifting restrictions. Most Chinese people have not had the virus, if you believe China's numbers. It is very possible that if they do they will have a huge number of cases and a few deaths as well. It's also inconvenient that the vaccines they forced everyone to get don't really work so they lose face there.
It really is a lose-lose situation for China's government. If they crack down they could inspire rebellion and international condemnation. If they don't they could be hugely embarrassed both locally and internationally. The one thing the Chinese government can't admit is that they were wrong.
This fire happened at the worst time for the Chinese as the lockdowns were already unpopular. But now they are killing people locked into their apartments. Literally locking people into their homes was always an extreme fire hazard and I can't believe they haven't paid the price for it until now. The Chinese people aren't stupid. They see how the rest of the world has returned to normal and there hasn't been a huge wave of deaths with the current variants. But they all know enough to be afraid of burning to death while locked in their homes because of a virus that isn't that much of a threat for 99.99% of them.
Keep in mind that China's lockdowns have been dramatically more extreme than basically everywhere else in the world. Locking people in their apartments was not an exaggeration, it's what they have done for almost three years now. And people have hated every minute of it, and for good reason. People aren't meant to spend weeks or months at a time locked at home.
With all that being said, I again don't expect much from these protests. At least not yet. The Chinese people are upset, but they aren't furious. That could happen soon though. In addition to all the problems with the virus, China is also having major economic problems. Their real estate sector is showing signs of collapse and they are facing the same problems with energy and inflation as everyone else is. If China fails with the virus and also has an economic collapse? Then they might have finally lost the mandate of heaven...
Sunday, November 27, 2022
Is Kanye West trying to destroy Donald Trump's 2024 run?
Friday, November 25, 2022
School shootings in Brazil leave three dead and 11 injured.
A pair of school shootings in Brazil has left three people dead and 11 injured. DW. The attack occurred in the small town of Aracruz, in Espirito Santo State. The gunman first attacked a public school and then moved to a private school across the street. Two were killed and nine were wounded in the first attack while one person was killed and two wounded at the second. The attacker was armed with a pistol and had body armor. He was arrested after the attack and police have identified him as a 16 year old who was undergoing psychiatric treatment. School shootings are uncommon in Brazil but not unheard of.
BRASIL: Imagens mostram o momento em que um homem entra na escola de Aracruz.
— Renan Brites Peixoto (@RenanPeixoto_) November 25, 2022
2 professores e 1 aluno foram mortos.
Segundo a polĂcia, o homem continua foragido e armado. pic.twitter.com/iUrLCSjIK2
My Comment:
A quick note on the firearm. The media is saying the gun is a semi auto while it appears the attacker is using a large bore revolver. It's hard to be 100% sure given the quality of the video, but it sure appears like his firearm has a cylinder, which means it isn't a semi auto. Why is that important? Because it shows that even if you were to ban semi autos you would still have mass shootings.
What is kind of shocking from an American context is that we actually have video of the attacker. Generally speaking in the United States most video evidence of these crimes is never released, which leads to conspiracy theories that the attack never happened. In Brazil I have noticed that there is often video released which means those conspiracy theories don't really happen. Regardless, it's very rare to see video of a school shooting in progress.
It seems that these schools were largely empty when the attacker came in. This probably reduced the death count considerably. It's unclear why the video shows so few people in the school, but I am guessing that the video is from the 2nd school and most people evacuated after the first shooting. I could be wrong about that though.
I try not to give too much coverage to mass shootings unless there is something vital to say as I have long suspected that news coverage of these events inspire copycats. But in this case I think it's worthy to write about due to the fact that not only was this attack on video, it also shows that the rest of the world has a problem with mass shootings as well. It also shows that Brazil's restrictive gun laws didn't do a thing to stop this shooting.
As for the motive of the attacker, it probably doesn't matter. We all have seen enough of these attacks that we could probably write a profile of him ourselves. There is a small possibility that the attacker was upset about the recent election in Brazil, and if that is the case it will be a political mess, but I am guessing it was just another disgruntled teenager. The fact that news media is reporting he was in treatment for mental health issues greatly supports that interpretation.
Wednesday, November 23, 2022
Andor review: The best of Star Wars TV.
Andor poster. Disney.
It's been a while since I have had any kind of review on this blog, but I think today is a good day for another one. This morning I finished watching season one of the Disney+ show Andor. Set in the Star Wars universe, the show follows Cassian Andor, the deuteragonist of the only really good Disney Star Wars film, Rogue One.
Andor is wildly different than the other Disney+ Star Wars originals. Instead of being an action show like The Mandalorian, The Book of Boba Fett and Kenobi, Andor is more of a thriller/drama. There certainly is a lot of action, but compared to those shows it's a lot slower paced and high brow.
The show essentially has four arcs. The first is the origin story of Andor and is by far the weakest part of the story. The first two episodes are hurt by the baffling decision to have constant flashbacks to Andor's childhood. These scenes would have been fine on their own but they are interspaced between the main plot, Andor being on the run for killing two corporate goons and the investigation trying to bring him in. The flashbacks totally wreck the momentum of the first two episodes. The arc gets better in the third episode, as the plot picks up, but the first two episodes are the weakest part of the series.
After that, the plot moves on to a new arc focused on a heist of an Imperial payroll. This arc was a lot more consistent and didn't have the constant annoying flashbacks. A slew of new interesting people are introduced and we get to see how Andor starts to transform himself from a outlaw mercenary into an actual rebel. The finale of this arc is beautifully shot and has some great scenes.
The real meat of the show is the third arc, the prison arc. The arc is set in an Imperial prison and at first I was skeptical of the direction the show was going. But Andy Serkis as Kino and Stellan SkarsgĂĄrd as Luthen make the arc. Indeed, the conclusion features incredible speeches from both characters that rank either at the top or close to it in terms of acting and writing in the Star Wars series.
The final arc concludes the story and for the most part it is satisfactory. The ending brings most of the stories together and gives a decent conclusion for most of the characters, though there were a few misfires. The only problem is that the conclusion of the last arc in episode 10 was so strong it was very hard to follow up on in episodes 11 and 12.
The interesting thing about Andor is how much the side characters outshine Andor himself. Don't get me wrong, Diego Luna does a great job as Andor and the show does a lot to make him interesting, but he can't hold a candle to characters like Mon Mothma, Kino Loy, Syril Karn and, critical, Luthen Rael. These characters hold the show together and without them it would not be anywhere near as interesting as it was.
Luthen is one of the more interesting, and subversive, characters in Star Wars and it's easy to see why. Without getting into spoilers too much, Luthen is an accelerationist. That means he's the kind of person that plans crimes and terror attacks because he is counting on the backlash to inspire others to join the rebellion. He's a true rebel and wants to make things worse before they get better and is extremely aware of how high the costs of doing so will be.
To say this is subversive is an understatement. Most people were introduced to the concept accelerationism by the New Zealand Mosque shooter, Brenton Harrison Tarrant. And it's an idea that is extremely popular among certain factions of right wing America. Though Luthen isn't portrayed as being a "good" character he is portrayed as being right. The narrative says that without his actions, the rebellion would have been doomed from the start. It's not something I expected to see in a Disney show. I don't know if the choice was a deliberate act of subversion or simply a case of Disney not realizing how the show could be interpreted, but it is refreshingly new and interesting to say the least.
Another aspect of the show I liked is how it humanized many of the imperial characters. In much of Disney Star Wars, Imperials have been one dimensional without any depth at all. I can't remember the last time that Disney portrayed an Imperial as anything other than a card carrying villain (unless they end up redeemed in the end). That is not the case at all. Syril Karn and Dedra Meero are both staunch and dedicated imperials but are also complex and even sympathetic characters. And they are actually competent as well! In short, they are human and not simply evil for the sake of being evil. They are still the bad guys but are more interesting than most of the villains in Star Wars of late.
The show also does a lot of "show, not tell". This is a minor spoiler but in the last episode we see a minor character building a bomb. Instead of telling us he's preparing an attack, they show us building a bomb. Instead of telling us he's doing it because he wants revenge for the death of his father, they show him watching a hologram of him. Many other shows would have the guy make a speech but this worked a lot better and Andor has a lot of little moments like that, which elevates the quality of the show.
My biggest criticism of the story has to be the first two episodes, and I think it really worked against the success of the story and probably caused a few people to give up on the show before it got good. The constant flashbacks to Andor's childhood really destroyed the pacing of the series. When I started the show, I was very afraid that it was going to be the same thing as the Book Of Boba Fett, which was ruined by the constant flashbacks. Both shows would have been improved if the flashbacks had just been a separate episode (or the first act of an episode).
I have a few other criticisms. The Mon Monthama story is interesting but barely intersects with the main plot and is mostly about Monthama trying to hide her support for the Rebellion. There isn't much wokeness in the show but the lesbian relationship between Vel and Cinta felt a bit forced, though it helped a lot that both actors did a good job with it and were fairly attractive too.
What really hurt the show though is the rest of the Star Wars universe. We all know what happens to Andor in Rogue One, but that's not anywhere near the worst part. If you have seen the Disney sequels, you know that the rebellion is pretty pointless because the New Republic falls and the Empire inexplicably comes back. Mon Mothma, one of the more interesting and well acted characters, had one of the dumbest fates in the post-Return of the Jedi eras where she becomes the Chancellor and is responsible for the absolutely idiotic decisions to both ignore the First Order and disband the fleet. If you aren't aware of the direction the rest of Star Wars went the show is very good, but with that knowledge it really detracts from the quality.
Not helping things is the absolutely negative reception to much of Star Wars after Disney bought it. I have seen many people that concede that Andor is a good show, but won't watch it because they have been burned by Disney so consistently. I can't say that I blame them, out of the five Disney films, only Rogue One was good, with the rest either being mediocre (Solo, The Force Awakens) or really, extraordinarily, bad (The Last Jedi, The Rise of Skywalker). Star Wars TV is pretty contested as well, with only the Mandalorian being considered decent. Both The Book of Boba Fett and Kenobi were controversial at best and the cartoons have been controversial as well. And that's not getting into the absolute nonsense we are seeing in the expanded universe.
Still, as long as you can ignore the fact that Disney has been hit or miss at best Andor is a really good show. It's worth watching just for Episode 10, which, as I said before, has some of the finest scenes in Star Wars history. I fully recommend watching the show, even if you aren't a big Star Wars fan or have felt burned out by the series or Disney's management of it.
Tuesday, November 22, 2022
Associated Press fires reporter that almost started World War III over a false report...
A photo taken near the scene of the errant missile impact site. Fox News/AP.
The Associated Press has fired a reporter that almost started World War III with a false report about Russia launching a missile at Poland. Fox News. James LaPorta reported that Russia had launched a missile at Poland that had killed two farmers, citing an anonymous defense official. However, it became clear that the missile was actually an errant air defense missile that Ukraine had fired. The incident caused a major increase in tensions between the west and Russia and caused a minor panic that World War III was going to break out. LaPorta was terminated and released the following statement:
"The rigorous editorial standards and practices of The Associated Press are critical to AP’s mission as [an] independent news organization, to ensure our reporting is accurate fair and fact-based, we abide by and enforce these standards, including around the use of anonymous sources. When our standards are violated, we must take the steps necessary to protect the integrity of the news report.
My Comment:
I have long urged caution when a press outlet bases a report on anonymous sources. That's a red flag and it's even a bigger red flag when there is only one anonymous source. It's lazy reporting and when nobody is willing to go on the record there is a very good chance that the story is either wrong or completely made up.
I am not sure what happened in this case though. It's possible that LaPorta simply made up the quote from the defense official. It wouldn't be the first time such a thing happened and he might have thought the gamble was worth it. It wasn't as the story was debunked fairly quickly and even the US government was skeptical of the idea that Russia would attack Poland deliberately.
It's also possible that LaPorta's source was either lying or wrong. Without knowing who the source is it's pretty impossible to know if it's either case. My guess is it would be the 2nd outcome because I can't see why someone would lie about it given the obvious possible consequences. But it's possible that the random defense official who was quoted was giving an opinion not based on fact.
The consequences of this false report were pretty severe. Though I don't think Russia or the United States bought the report, other people did, including Poland and Ukraine. Indeed, Ukraine still appears to claim that Russia did in fact fire a missile at Poland. There were attempts to invoke Article 5 in the NATO treaty, which wouldn't immediately cause World War III, but it would mean we were a lot closer to it than we have ever been before.
This is just another example of how bad journalism has gotten in terms of reliability. It's a good thing that this reporter was fired, but the fact remains when it comes to many topics the press is not even attempting to be objective or accurate.
This story never made even a lick of sense. Why would Russia launch a missile at Poland? And if they did, why would they only launch one? Why would they target a farm and not a military installation? And why couldn't it have been an accident by either side in the war? The knee-jerk response that it had to have been Russia did a lot of damage.
But it's also clear that the international news media has next to zero credibility on Russia. Like Donald Trump, they hate Russia and any objectivity goes out the window. For a good example of how detached from reality they are, they claim both that Russia is losing the war in Ukraine while at the same time saying that Russia is also a huge threat to the rest of Europe. I don't think either of those things are true, but if one is, it stands to reason that the other is not right?
Regardless, the whole incident just shows how stupid this war is and why it needs to end. All it took was one false report to incite a panic that could have started a world war. Tensions are way too high and it's time to ratchet it down...
Monday, November 21, 2022
Turkey is threatening to invade Syria and Iraq to target the Kurds.
A Turkish soldier with a flag in Afrin Syria. Jerusalem Post/Reuters.
Turkey is threatening to invade both Syria and Iraq to target Kurdish groups that they consider a threat. The Jerusalem Post. Turkey has made the threats after a major bombing was blamed on the Kurds. Turkey has long had a presence in Syria and has a campaign against both the Kurdish PKK terror group and the Kurdish YPG, the non-terrorist militia. The United States has prevented large scale invasions against the Kurds, but it is unclear what Joe Biden will do now. Turkey has an agreement with Syria for deploying troops in Syria and Syria, along with their Russian allies, have offered limited support for Turkey's actions.
My Comment:
It is not surprising that Turkey has stepped up their actions against the Kurds. Though it is unclear what the motivation for the bombing that killed six people, the Kurds were blamed for it. Who exactly is actually responsible for the attack isn't clear yet but I think it provided motivation for the Turks to do what they wanted anyways.
The invasion of Syria isn't much new, though the new invasion would move into areas that Turkey hasn't been before. Russia and Syria seem to be on board as they have an agreement with Turkey. And they certainly aren't in a position to fight the Turks. Syria has been devastated by years of civil war and Russia has the Ukraine war tying them down.
Speaking of Russia, they have little reason to want to stop Turkey. They don't care about the Kurds at all, and need good relations with Turkey for use in the Ukraine war. They probably think that Turkey can pressure other NATO allies to stop supporting Ukraine, or at the very least, stop a major interventions of NATO. Russia's main interest in Syria remains the Tartus port.
The Iraq situation is a bit more complicated. It's unclear if Turkey will actually invade there and if they do it's unclear what the Iraqis would do about it. Unlike Syria I don't think they have an agreement with Turkey to invade. The Kurds there are also a lot more well treated by their government. But on the other hand Iran is fairly close to Iraq as well, and they have their own problems with the Kurds.
The Kurds seem to be in serious trouble in the region. Turkey absolutely hates them and the actions of the PKK have turned off a lot of people that would otherwise support them. Iran hates them as well and nobody else is willing to speak up for them.
As for the United States, it's important to point out that the Kurds were our best allies in the fight against ISIS. I don't know if we would have won without the help from the Kurds. To betray them now would be fairly disgusting.
But I also don't know if Joe Biden has any motivation to help the Kurds. Turkey is a critical ally unfortunately and would be needed if World War III were to break out, even if their own relations with Russia are a lot closer than the rest of the alliance. Turkey was also a critical ally against ISIS, at least after they attacked Turkey, so we do owe them some consideration there as well.
My guess is that the Kurds are very screwed. I don't see Turkey backing down here and nobody seems likely to step up and help them. To be honest, the PKK probably does deserve that fate, after all, they are one of the only secular groups to ever use suicide bombing, but the rest of the Kurds? They don't deserve this...
Sunday, November 20, 2022
Iran deploys troops to Kurdish city and declares marital law.
Saturday, November 19, 2022
Donald Trump is back on Twitter, or, at the very least, his account is unbanned.
Donald Trump has had his Twitter account restored after Elon Musk bought out the company, but it remains unclear if he will use the account or not. AP. Trump was banned after January 6th, a decision that Elon Musk said was a "morally bad decision" and "foolish to the extreme". Musk put the issue up to a vote on Twitter with 51.8 percent of users who voted saying Trump should be reinstated. Trump's account is currently back, though his follower account was reset to zero. It is unclear if Trump will use the account as he has his own social media site, Truth Social, and he has said that he will continue to post there.
The people have spoken.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 20, 2022
Trump will be reinstated.
Vox Populi, Vox Dei. https://t.co/jmkhFuyfkv
My Comment:
I wasn't going to write this up since everyone in the world has talked about it already and I'm a little late, but there wasn't anything else that I saw that was worth writing about. It is a significant event and a historical one, but again, I am late on writing about it.
Of course, Donald Trump never should have been banned in the first place. The media has created a false narrative that Trump was trying to "incite an insurrection" and other such nonsense. With Trump's account restored we can see he was calling for calm and nothing else. The decision to ban trump was a political one, full stop, and it prevented him from advocating for his position in the wake of the most dysfunctional and corrupt election in recent US history.
It is very unclear if Trump will come back to Twitter or not. He does have his own thing going on via Truth Social now and if he does return to Twitter I think that website is probably done. Truth Social doesn't really do anything special, it just has the advantage of having Donald Trump there exclusively. Given how much money Trump has invested into Truth Social, it would be a bad financial move for him to do so.
Of course, there is a damn good reason for Trump to come back to Twitter. If he does he stands a better chance of getting back into office in 2024. Trump's mastery of his Twitter account is how he won in 2016 and if he can back into form he may be able to pull it off again. He does still have an impact on things with Truth Social but his reach would be greatly expanded if he was on Twitter.
I am sure that Elon Musk is hoping that Trump will come back. Trump is obviously a huge draw and having him come back would more than make up for the few people that actually left after Musk took over. It would also increase engagement and advertising rates so Musk stands to make a bit of money if Trump comes back.
As for Trump's account, it appears to be dormant at the moment. The follower account is unstable as well, probably due to millions of people trying to follow him all at once. I tired myself and it didn't work, so I am guessing it will take some time to get all the kinks out.
If nothing else this is a huge win for future historians. Trump was a major power user and you can't understand the history of Twitter, and even the history of America, without access to Donald Trump's tweets. Like I said before, he would not have been elected in 2016 without his mastery of social media and people in the future will want to know what he had said. Those tweets were lost to the aether for a long time, but now they are back and I hope like hell people are archiving them...
Thursday, November 17, 2022
Should Republicans number one focus be on investigating Hunter Biden in congress?
Incoming House Oversite chairman James Conner. BBC/Getty.
House Republicans say that investigating Joe Biden's son, Hunter Biden, will be their number one priority after taking the chamber. BBC. Hunter Biden is already under federal investigation but has not faced any scrutiny from congress. The committee will explore the Biden family and their business deals, including those with Ukraine. The Republicans have accused Hunter Biden of wire fraud and tax evasion. The White House says the investigation is "politically motivated".
My Comment:
I have mixed feelings about this. My gut says that focusing on Joe Biden, who has a very good chance of being totally irrelevant in 2024, is not a good use of extremely limited GOP resources. Voters priorities right now are nor corruption in the White House. It's things like inflation, pay raises, crime, war and the LGBT culture war. This investigation isn't going to help with that at all.
Indeed, it's taking a page out of the Democrat's playbook. The Democrats put a huge amount of energy into attacking Donald Trump through the January 6th Committee (which is finally getting shut down). It accomplished very little outside of the beltway and it's probably a major reason why the Democrats lost the house. Instead of helping out the people that voted for them, they went for a vendetta and it didn't pay off for them. I think if the Republicans focus on it they could be in trouble.
Of course the problem with this is that there isn't much the Republicans can do with the Democrats in control of the Senate. I can't see much in the way of legislation being passed during the next two years. There is almost no chance of anything happening so what else are the Republicans can do? The Democrats will simply block any legislation they pass.
On the other hand I do think that the Biden family is essentially a crime family and people need to realize that. The committee won't need to prove it but they will accomplish something that they have failed with these accusations before. They will get publicity for Biden's corruption. The censorship campaign back in 2020 where Hunter Biden's laptop from hell was essentially banned from being discussed on every major website won't happen again after Elon Musk bought Twitter.
And I do think that Biden's corruption is a major foreign policy issue. Right now we are giving Ukraine billions of dollars and the laptop from hell proved that Hunter Biden had major links to Ukraine. We essentially went to war with Russia over Ukraine and it's very important that people realize that we may doing it to protect Biden's investments in the country. And with the FTX story raising the possibility that US aid is being laundered there and transferred to the Democrats, it's hugely important.
Still, I have limited hopes of this investigation actually taking down Biden. Biden's corruption has been widely known for two years now and it hasn't really affected him. And even if rock solid proof of impeachable offensives are found, Biden would not be removed from office because there aren't anywhere near enough votes in the Senate to remove him. Plus, even if there was, nobody on either side wants Kamala Harris to be President...
My gut says that this will just be a sideshow without much meaning, just like the January 6th committee. Biden's crimes will be exposed but I don't think much else will happen. The problem is that there is nothing else for the Republicans to do with their failure to capture the Senate (or, more accurately, prevent the Democrats from stealing it). I wish that they could do something about the various serious problems that are rocking the country right now, but essentially their hands are tied, and I doubt the Democrats will actually work with them on any of these issues.
Wednesday, November 16, 2022
Some people in China are protesting the country's "zero covid" strategy
NEW - People in China's Guangzhou city tear down COVID barricades.pic.twitter.com/M28Rw63APC
— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) November 14, 2022
My Comment:
It's absolutely insane to me that China is still doing lockdowns. The rest of the world has moved on. Almost all of our restrictions have been pulled and it's pretty rare to even see people wearing masks here in Wisconsin. I was at the grocery store tonight and I saw only one couple wearing a mask and I did a double take when I saw it. For the rest of the world, the pandemic is over.
That isn't to say that the Coronavirus isn't still around. People are still getting sick and some are even dying. But for most people the virus is not a threat at all. At worst it's a flu and at best it's a cold. Most people who will get it now will be fine. The virus has evolved in a much less deadly and dangerous form.
But the idea that the virus is still bad enough that people shouldn't be allowed out of their houses? It's insane! It didn't make much sense even with the original virus, which was dramatically more deadly than the current version. Locking people down never stopped the virus and it's insane that they are still doing it.
And it's very surprising that the Chinese people have put up with it for so long. Keep in mind these aren't like the lockdowns we had here in the United States. In China they lock people in their homes and deliver them food. And people have been doing that on and off for almost three years now. It's crazy and I can't believe that they have only had a few small riots.
I do think that China will have to eventually back off of this policy. Indeed, it seems like they are heading that way already. They can no longer sustain the economic damage and disorder that these lockdowns cause and have said they are going to move away from zero covid. But they should have done it a long time before now.
I wonder what will happen when the lockdowns are lifted. China has large numbers of people that have never had the virus so I am guessing they will see a major wave of infections. The other problem is that the lockdowns have done a lot of damage to people. I can't imagine the psychological problems these people have after being lockdowned for the better part of three years...
Tuesday, November 15, 2022
Biden requests $37 billion for Ukraine from lame-duck congress.
Donald Trump announces 2024 run...
As you may be aware, Donald Trump has just filed the paperwork to run in 2024 as president. This was expected news, but it doesn't make it any less important. Donald Trump still leads the Republican Party and I personally think he is a shoe in to be the candidate in 2024. I haven't watched his announcement as I didn't really see the need to, everyone knew he is already running.
Unlike 2020, it is very possible that Trump will face a serious challenge. Many people are floating Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, but he is far from the only one. Many in the GOP are blaming Trump, someone incredibly, for the 2022 midterms not being a huge victory (it wasn't his fault, it was mail in ballots and ballot harvesting and it's impossible to argue otherwise) and there is a faction that has always hated Donald Trump.
I hope, for Ron DeSantis sake, that he does not run in 2024. I like DeSantis and I would support him for President if Trump was not running. But since Trump is running I hope he does not. Why? Because Trump will destroy him. Remember, Trump ended the career of so many GOP hopefuls in 2016. When is the last time you have heard from Jeb! Bush? Trump is excellent in destroying his enemies and Ron DeSantis would make himself one if he decides to run. I don't want Ron DeSantis to face the same fate. I don't think he can beat Trump and it would be foolish to even try. By running in 2024, he's ruining his chances in 2028 and perhaps his entire political career.
Can Trump himself win? I have no idea. He basically won in 2020 but it turned out that it didn't count. Given how terrible the 2022 midterms were, votes still haven't been counted in every state and it's clear that at least some of these races were stolen. Trump would obviously wipe the floor with Biden, or whoever the Democrats limp to the finishing line with in a fair election, but I am not expecting anything close to a fair election in 2024.
I think it's probably too late to stop the Democrats ballot harvesting operation but there is still things Republicans can do to help Trump win. If they focus on ballot harvesting operations of their own then they could have a chance in 2024. If that is the case than it hardly matters who the candidate is, after all, John Fetterman and Katie Hobbs manage to win with Hobbs being completely unelectable and Fetterman being a potato.
I do think that this announcement is premature. The Georgia Runoff is next month and I would have preferred to have Republicans unite to get Herschel Walker over the finish line. We shouldn't be campaigning for 2024 while the 2022 election isn't over with. Some people say I never criticize Trump, but that's not true, this was absolutely terrible timing and I think it's an obvious mistake.
Monday, November 14, 2022
World population reaches 8 billion...
Sunday, November 13, 2022
Terror attack in Turkey kills 6, wounds 81.
⚠️‼️🇹🇷💥Explosion occurred in the center of Istanbul, there are wounded, Turkish TV reports
— AZ 🛰🌏🌍🌎 (@AZgeopolitics) November 13, 2022
The explosion occurred on the pedestrian tourist street Istiklal in Istanbul pic.twitter.com/7tlBdBdQTU
Saturday, November 12, 2022
Major disagreement in the White House about what to do about Ukraine...
Biden and his staff. New York Times.
There is a major disagreement between Biden's top General and Biden's other advisors over what to do about the war in Ukraine. New York Times. General Mark Milley is the Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and says Ukraine has accomplished all they are likely to accomplish this winter and should negotiate now from a position of relative strength. The other faction says that negotiation would only give Vladimir Putin a chance to regroup. It is unclear what the Biden White House will do but they are sending more military support to Ukraine and have said they are not insisting that Ukraine negotiate. Ukraine, Russia and Europe have expressed confusion over the mixed messaging coming from the White House. Biden appears to be worried about a nascent antiwar movement both here in the United States and abroad, with Republicans in congress becoming more reluctant to send aid to Ukraine.
My Comment:
I think that General Milley is seeing the same things I am seeing from Ukraine. Yes, Russia has been retreating but they are also inflicting heavy casualties on Ukraine, basically trading territory for lives. They have also done massive amounts of damage to Ukraine's infrastructure to the point people there may freeze to death and/or starve this winter. And there is an absolutely massive buildup of Russian forces the size of which has not been seen in many years.
The Ukrainians are now at the apex of their power and it would be very wise of them to come to the negotiation table from a position of strength as opposed to waiting until after Russia's offensive happens. Even if they are able to stop Russia's offensive, which would be fairly shocking, they would almost certainly lose territory and lives in the process. Why not preserve that instead?
The problem is that the military has burned a lot of bridges with Joe Biden and the White House and for once I have to admit that they have a point. The military totally screwed up their intelligence estimates during the withdrawal of Afghanistan and it led to one of the most embarrassing defeats America has seen since the Vietnam War, and may have even exceeded that depending on who you talk to. The military could be right here but they just don't have the credibility anymore.
Of course, the political advisors don't have much credibility either. They were the ones that said that Russia was going to collapse, both on the battlefield and at home, due to sanctions and support we gave Ukraine. That obviously hasn't happened and I honestly don't think either side of this debate in the White House has any credibility whatsoever.
I do think there is a real possibility that Russia simply wouldn't respond to a genuine peace effort either. They consider the war in Ukraine to be an existential crisis and to reach a settlement might end up being unacceptable to them. Especially since they have already been burned by negotiations once, famously progress had been made in the peace process but the entire effort was torpedoed by Joe Biden and Boris Johnson. Plus, as I have been saying for awhile now, Russia's efforts in Ukraine are far more effective than is portrayed in western media. I think they probably feel they have a real chance of winning the war still.
With that being said, I do think that the generals are right, there is never going to be a better time for the Ukrainians to come to the negotiating table and the powers that be in the United States and Europe should plan for peace. If we can avoid the major Russian winter offensive all the better. Tensions are way too high already and Europe is being crushed under sanctions. Plus there is the ever-present but low key danger of a nuclear exchange.
I have been saying for a long time now that we need to allow our diplomats to get to work. That's what we have them for, to avoid war, but for far too long they have been on the sidelines and not working with Russia. That needs to stop and so does this war.
Will that happen? I have no idea. I have zero faith in the Biden administration to do the right thing and even if they do, they will likely screw it up horribly (see Afghanistan for a major example of doing the right thing, ending the war, in the worst way possible). I do think that the hawks have a point about Putin not really wanting negotiations to begin so my guess is that an effort to end the war won't come from this White House anytime soon. But the fact that it's even being considered is a slim ray of hope in an extremely dark and depressing time.
Thursday, November 10, 2022
A federal judge has blocked Joe Biden's Student Debt relief scheme.
Joe Biden. Politico/AP.
A federal judge has blocked Joe Biden's student debt relief scheme. Politico. The Texas judge said that the program was “an unconstitutional exercise of Congress’s legislative power and must be vacated.” The effort had already been put on temporary hold due to a ruling in a separate case. 16 million people have already applied for the debt relief and it is unclear if other people will be able to apply after the order. Biden has said previously that he would fight any efforts to block student debt relief. The lawsuit was filed on behalf of two people that did not qualify for the full $20,000 debt relief.
My Comment:
This was a fully expected outcome to this case. Biden never had the authority to ever do this in the first place, it's congress that decides spending, and they had never agreed to student debt relief. It is not a surprise at all that the effort was overturned. Indeed, it would have been shocking if it hadn't been.
And I fully expect that Biden will lose this on appeal as well. Like I said, he had no authority to spend millions of dollars on student debt relief without approval from congress. This will be held up on appeal and if it makes it to the Supreme Court the ruling will be the same. All Biden is doing is wasting time and money to appeal this case.
Student debt relief was deeply unpopular among people that didn't benefit from it. I know that I always thought that it was a slap in the face to everyone who paid for college on their own and paid off their debt. And it was also a slap in the face to everyone who never got to go to college in the first place. I can't complain too much, I got a lot of help from my family and mostly only had to pay for my books and some other expenses, but I do think it was B.S. that they never would have gotten one thin dime out of this. But they and everyone else who didn't benefit from this scheme would end up having to pay for it.
The timing of this ruling is not the best, to say the least. Biden was able to say that he had been able to keep a campaign promise with this program, even though he knew that it was likely to be overturned. It was essentially a bribe to vote for the Democrats in the midterms and an extremely cynical one at that. Biden and the Democrats knew damn well that not a single check was going to be sent out.
Would this ruling have affected the midterms? I think it might have. Though I doubt there would be anyone who would have voted for Republicans because of this, I do think some of the Democrats out there would have stayed home if they knew that the student debt relief was never actually going to happen.
What is confusing is that the Republicans didn't harp on this during the election campaign. They had to know that this was going to be the outcome in this case, but why wasn't it used in campaign commercials? Doing so would have probably demoralized the Democratic vote enough that they would have had more success on Tuesday.
Of course, it's not totally too late. The runoff election in Georgia is coming up next month and if the Republicans are smart they will harp on this issue. It could be the difference between a win and loss in that election. But given the... questionable... decisions the RNC made this election cycle, I am not sure that they will.
Student debt relief appears to be a dead issue. The Democrats couldn't get it passed with control of both the House and Senate and now it appears very unlikely that they will have that again anytime soon. Biden can't do it by himself and there are no other options to get it done. People will have to actually pay off their debts.
Wednesday, November 9, 2022
My thoughts on the 2022 midterms
As you are almost certainly aware, there was an election yesterday. As of this writing we still don't really know who is going to control the house and the senate, with the house looking to be a GOP win while the senate is such a mess we might not know who controls it until the likely Georgia runoff election. There are quite a few important races that have yet to have been called.
Before I get into the politics of it, I have to say that this was yet another unacceptable election. There is absolutely no reason why a 1st world country can't have their votes counted within a few hours. Brazil, famous for being a corrupt country, had their election a few weeks ago and had the results in three hours. If Brazil could do it why couldn't we?
It's pretty clear why. There are a lot of completely incompetent people running our elections. Though some states seemed to have improved a bit in how long it takes to count, others seem to have gotten even worse. Arizona was an absolute mess and it's no surprise that their races have not been called yet.
And here in Wisconsin, I had an election experience that was just embarrassing. First, as I was getting ready to enter the polling place, I found the door locked. Thankfully there were people in front of me that were able to open the door, but still. After that there was a big commotion by the ballot scanner and there was a big announcement that a ballot had gotten stuck. I saw a few people leave after hearing that and I wasn't able to have my ballot scanned. It was only the presence of an election observer that made me comfortable enough to hand my ballot in to be scanned in when the machine was fixed.
As for the election results, I have mixed feelings. I'm obviously furious that Tony Evers was reelected and somewhat baffled as to how. Evers is the most do-nothing governor that we have ever had (so I am not too worried about what he's going to do) but I am puzzled why Wisconsin voters gave him a second chance. The other governor races weren't much better with several unpopular governors getting re-elected inexplicably.
But the news isn't all bad. It does appear that the Republicans will probably win the house and may even take the Senate. That's a major victory even if it wasn't the red wave that we were all expecting. It should blunt some of the worst excesses of the Biden administration. It will be even better if they manage to take the senate, which looks at least possible at this point.
Some of my most hated political enemies have lost as well. Stacy Abrams, the go to person for claiming election fraud, was beaten in a landslide. Most notably, Robert Francis "Beto" O'Rourke has now lost as a Senate, Governor and Presidential candidate and I couldn't be happier.
And both Florida and Texas are pretty clearly red states now, with Georgia looking like it might be one as well. Florida is so deeply red now that I can't see the Democrats winning there in 2024 or beyond without major changes. That's a good advantage for Republicans in 2024 and it's clear that Governor DeSantis is a major rising star.
As for why the so called "red wave" didn't happen I have a few ideas. The first is obviously candidate quality. There is one reason and one reason only that John Fetterman managed to win in Pennsylvania and it's because the other candidate was Dr. Oz. Why the Republicans of Pennsylvania put up a Oprah castoff as it's candidate is beyond me. It was to the point that even a stroked out Fetterman, who could barely talk during his debate, was able to beat him. Joe O'Dea in Colorado was another weak candidate that tried to stay in the center and wasn't able to appeal to anyone in the end.
I think voter fraud was possible a factor in this election as well. Mail in ballots have still not been dealt with and with that being the case there is a real chance that some election fraud happened. I am not as sure about that as I was about the 2020 elections, as congressional races are harder to steal than presidential races, but are a factor in senate and governor's races. But there was at least something done in some states to prevent fraud.
A lot of people are blaming the repeal of Roe v Wade, and I don't really think that had too much to do with it. As I have said for a long time, most of the people that even cared about it a little were already going to turn out for the Democrats. And I do think that it being repealed did actually drive Republican turnout as well.
But I think it was an enthusiasm problem for the Republicans responsible for what happened. Though I didn't see many Democratic signs here in Wisconsin, I didn't see anywhere near the number of signs for Republicans compared to previous elections. I think 2020 was extremely demoralizing for a lot of people and many of those people didn't show up. I think there was little faith that the election would be fair and even if it was, the GOP has not delivered that much since 2020. They had a chance to fight in 2020 and they didn't take it and it disappointed a lot of people.
The other major problem is that the Republicans seemed to have abandoned the strategy that served them so well in the 2021 election in Virginia. That election was about education and the gross excesses of the LGBT community. People have a visceral disgust of what the transgender community wants to do with children but it didn't come up.
Indeed, for almost all of the issues the Republicans abandoned winning issues and instead focused on the economy. Indeed, that could have worked if the Republicans actually had a plan for what to do about runaway inflation and other economic problems. Same with crime, foreign policy and all the other issues. Those were Republican strengths, but I never got the impression that they pushed on it hard.
Regardless, this was not a victory for the Democrats and not a defeat for the Republicans. They did not do as well as we all hoped but they did deal a major blow to Democrats and will almost certainly control the house, and perhaps the senate as well. That's a win, even if it wasn't as convincing as it should have been. Now, unfortunately, we move on to the 2024 Presidential election and the possible Donald Trump/Ron DeSantis war (which sucks because I like both of them).
Monday, November 7, 2022
Why I am voting for Republicans tomorrow:
As you are most certainly aware, tomorrow is Election Day in America. It is the first major election since the utter mess that was the 2020 election and one where it seems clear that the Republicans will win the house, at the very least. Most likely the Democrats will lose not only the House, but the Senate as well, along with several governors races.
I live in Wisconsin that has two major competitive races. My congressional seat, with Congressman Mike Gallagher, is not really contested. He's running against a libertarian, with no Democratic opposition. I actually like Gallagher and have greatly soured on the Libertarian party, so that race is pretty irrelevant.
In the Senate, Ron Johnson is running against Mandela Barnes, the state's Lieutenant Governor. I will be voting for Johnson, and I have supported him since his first run. Indeed, I was actually at his campaign event in Oshkosh way back during his first Senate race. Though I did vote for him back then, that was a paid gig, but it was still a really cool moment. I have been happy with Johnson as a Senator, even though sometimes I don't get a response when I e-mail him (Gallagher and, surprisingly, our other Senator, Democrat Tammy Baldwin, are a lot better at this).
As for the Governor Race, I have not been a fan of Tony Evers at all. He's been a bad governor and I would vote for anyone with a R in front of their name. Tim Michaels is fine, but this is less about supporting him and more about voting against Evers. The best thing I can say about him is that Evers was mostly irrelevant during his term as Governor and has been handicapped by Republican resistance.
But I think that for most people this race isn't about the candidates. Perhaps it is in Pennsylvania where John Fetterman had a stroke and Dr. Oz is, well, Dr. Oz. Or perhaps it is in the Arizona Governor's race where Kari Lake is a rising star in the Republican Party. But that is no the case here in Wisconsin. For the people here I think people will be voting for two reasons, the terrible economy and the excesses of the Democrats.
I have heard a lot of smoke from the Democrats and the media about how the economy is actually fine and that we aren't in a recession. From the ground that seems like the biggest lie I have heard in a long time. People are going broke due to massive increases in inflation, and some of the factories in my area are scaling back production. Indeed, my businesses' main competitor has already cut down production to four days a week, meaning everyone that works there is only getting 32 hours of work.
And the Democrats? They aren't even talking about the Economy. All we have heard from them since 2021 was January 6th and nothing else. They care more about trying to get Donald Trump, who isn't even in office anymore, than doing a damn thing about the economy. For me personally, the January 6th event was a nothing burger at worst and an appropriate reaction to the 2020 election. It certainly was no worse than the 2020 riots the Democrats committed for a lot less reasonable reasons.
The Democrats are just wrong on policy. From the Ukraine war, to crime, to the economy, their answers are all wrong. I can't think of a single thing that I agree with the party on, which is a new development. Whatever they do it is the wrong thing, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.
Of course, gun control remains the major reason why I am totally opposed to the Democratic Party. This is pure self interest as I own several of the guns that Democrats want to ban and it makes sense to vote against them. They want to send armed men to my house to either take my property and send me to jail, or even kill me dead, just because I own some metal and plastic that they don't like.
Finally, I have to say that I am getting sick and tired of the T part of LGBT. I don't have a problem with LGB people but the transgender community has pretty much gone insane. From drag time story hours to claiming that children should take hormones and mutilate their bodies, it's gone far beyond the limits of tolerance. Republicans are doing what they can to stop this and the Democrats just want more.
So for all these reasons and more I will be voting for straight Republicans on my ballot tomorrow morning. I hope that millions of Americans will be doing the same thing and that the Democrats lose every competitive race they are in. I'm still worried about fraud, especially in Pennsylvania, but at this point it's too late to do anything about it, but vote and make the fraud harder to committ.