Turkey is threatening to invade both Syria and Iraq to target Kurdish groups that they consider a threat. The Jerusalem Post. Turkey has made the threats after a major bombing was blamed on the Kurds. Turkey has long had a presence in Syria and has a campaign against both the Kurdish PKK terror group and the Kurdish YPG, the non-terrorist militia. The United States has prevented large scale invasions against the Kurds, but it is unclear what Joe Biden will do now. Turkey has an agreement with Syria for deploying troops in Syria and Syria, along with their Russian allies, have offered limited support for Turkey's actions.
My Comment:
It is not surprising that Turkey has stepped up their actions against the Kurds. Though it is unclear what the motivation for the bombing that killed six people, the Kurds were blamed for it. Who exactly is actually responsible for the attack isn't clear yet but I think it provided motivation for the Turks to do what they wanted anyways.
The invasion of Syria isn't much new, though the new invasion would move into areas that Turkey hasn't been before. Russia and Syria seem to be on board as they have an agreement with Turkey. And they certainly aren't in a position to fight the Turks. Syria has been devastated by years of civil war and Russia has the Ukraine war tying them down.
Speaking of Russia, they have little reason to want to stop Turkey. They don't care about the Kurds at all, and need good relations with Turkey for use in the Ukraine war. They probably think that Turkey can pressure other NATO allies to stop supporting Ukraine, or at the very least, stop a major interventions of NATO. Russia's main interest in Syria remains the Tartus port.
The Iraq situation is a bit more complicated. It's unclear if Turkey will actually invade there and if they do it's unclear what the Iraqis would do about it. Unlike Syria I don't think they have an agreement with Turkey to invade. The Kurds there are also a lot more well treated by their government. But on the other hand Iran is fairly close to Iraq as well, and they have their own problems with the Kurds.
The Kurds seem to be in serious trouble in the region. Turkey absolutely hates them and the actions of the PKK have turned off a lot of people that would otherwise support them. Iran hates them as well and nobody else is willing to speak up for them.
As for the United States, it's important to point out that the Kurds were our best allies in the fight against ISIS. I don't know if we would have won without the help from the Kurds. To betray them now would be fairly disgusting.
But I also don't know if Joe Biden has any motivation to help the Kurds. Turkey is a critical ally unfortunately and would be needed if World War III were to break out, even if their own relations with Russia are a lot closer than the rest of the alliance. Turkey was also a critical ally against ISIS, at least after they attacked Turkey, so we do owe them some consideration there as well.
My guess is that the Kurds are very screwed. I don't see Turkey backing down here and nobody seems likely to step up and help them. To be honest, the PKK probably does deserve that fate, after all, they are one of the only secular groups to ever use suicide bombing, but the rest of the Kurds? They don't deserve this...
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