Is Iran planning an attack on Saudi Arabia or US troops in Iraq?

 

Iranian missiles being fired. New York Post/Reuters. 

US and Saudi forces are on high alert due to a possible imminent strike by Iranian forces. New York Post. Possible targets include Saudi energy production facilities and US troops in Erbil, Iraq. US officials claim that the strikes would be used to distract against protests that have rocked the country. US officials also said that they would defend their allies in the region. However, US relations with Saudi Arabia are extremely tense, with Joe Biden saying he would "reevaluate" relations between the two countries. 

My Comment:

The reporting on this supposed attack is very thin indeed. The only evidence provided is statements from US and Saudi officials, who haven't even gone on the record. That is always a red flag for me and one that makes me doubt the veracity of this story. 

I also don't buy that Iran would strike Saudi Arabia and Iraq just because of a few riots. Iran has riots all the time and is very good at putting them down. These current ones don't strike me as anything new so I don't think Iran is going to do anything crazy to just deal with them. I know neocons are always hoping that Iran will eventually be overthrown again but I don't think there is any reason why this would happen this time around. 

That isn't to say that Iran doesn't want to launch strikes, I just think the reasoning is flawed. They still want revenge for Qasem Soleimani, the general that was killed by the Trump administration. They also absolutely despise Saudi Arabia and need little reason to attack them. Plus they are helped by high gas prices, which any attack on Saudi Arabia's energy production will cause. Not to mention that they are essentially in a proxy war with Saudi Arabia in the first place in Yemen, a war which regularly result in ballistic missile and drone strikes on Saudi targets. 

Attacks on US forces are much rarer, but not unheard of. Indeed, Iranian forces have targeted Erbil before, not to mention the use of Iranian backed Shiite Militias that target US troops in Iraq and Syria. Iran is certainly capable of attacking US troops so this isn't anything that is new. 

Of course, under Joe Biden, everything gets more complicated. Iran and Russia are basically allies now with Iranian troops unofficially participating in the Ukraine war with Iran suppling drones and other weapons for the Russians. The Russians would gain from strikes in the Middle East as it would probably force the US to respond to Iranian provocations. Such a distraction might take US troops, weapons and money away from the Ukrainian front in what is essentially an undeclared world war... 

The real losers in this are the Saudis as they are caught between the Iranians, who hate them, and Joe Biden, who hates them almost as much. The Saudis do not have a strong ally in the United States and if Iran were to strike them and them alone I think they would be out of luck. But I bet if strikes do happen it won't just be limited to Saudi targets. 

So are strikes going to happen? I am not sure. As I said, I am skeptical of reports without on the record sources, but it's not like the idea is implausible or anything. I hope nothing happens though, the last thing we need is a higher tensions in the gulf.