Joe Biden claims that Democrats will hold both the House and Senate

 

Joe Biden takes questions from the press. The Daily Mail/AP.

Joe Biden claimed that the Democrats will hold both the House and the Senate during remarks to the media. The Daily Mail. Most polling shows Republicans having a very good chance of winning the house and a decent chance of taking the senate. Biden claims that he would instead pick up a seat in the senate and would keep the house. Biden claims that support for Republicans is weak and not what he sees on the ground. Why Biden is so enthusiastic is not clear, as even 538, a liberal polling outlet, gives Republicans an 85% chance of winning the house and a 55% chance of winning the senate. 

My Comment:

What incredible optimism from Joe Biden. I know it's part of his job to pump up his party before midterms but this seems incredibly out of touch as far as I am concerned. If Biden were to be right about this then the polling will have been an even bigger disaster than it was for 2020 and 2016. 

Indeed, the general consensus appears to be that the Republicans will easily keep the house and pick up several seats in the Senate, with four being the most common number. There are a few close races I am not too confident in, with Pennsylvania and Georgia being the biggest ones, but even that would leave 52 Senate races in the Republican column, with a few more races being possible. 

But the house is where I am really confused. Almost nobody believes that the Democrats will be able to keep their narrow lead in the house. Not only did Democrats get screwed in redistricting, they are facing a major demographic shift where Hispanics are trending towards Republicans. That puts a lot of formally safe house districts into play and I am guessing Republicans are going to pick up a lot of them.

I also don't think that Biden is at all tuned into the mood of the country, which I would describe as almost murderously angry about the economy. The powers that be don't seem to be aware of how devastating inflation is and people are absolutely reminded of how high prices have gotten every time they go to the store or try to get gas. Indeed, I went to the store to day and I was amazed how little stuff I was able to buy for the $115 I spent on groceries. And I am doing ok financially, how are people that can't pay their rent or mortgage going to vote? It's not going to be for the party that they blame the problems on and for many Americans that's the Democrats. 

The Democrats always were going to have an uphill battle in 2022. They are lucky that only 1/3rd of the Senate is up for a vote because if they were all in play I feel they would likely be wiped out. The mood of the country is terrible and people are also getting sick and tired of woke policies. Having Elon Musk buyout Twitter and him immediately stop cooperating with Democratic propaganda hurt them as well. Not to mention the natural trend for ruling parties to lose during midterms during a president's first term. 

My fear is that Biden knows something that we don't know. He has already said that it may take some time to count up the votes, which is utterly unforgivable in what is supposed to be the most advanced country in the world. Brazil's election can be charitably described as an "utter mess" but they had their votes counted in a day. Biden's saying we are worse than Brazil? 

The elephant in the room is the potential for voter fraud or other late night election day shenanigan's that were so common in 2020. There is some good news on that front as some of the efforts to continue mail in ballots and other easily abused practices have been taken away from the Democrats. But enough continue that it's possible there could be some hard to detect fraud during the senate races. 

With that being said, I don't think that will affect the house races at all, even though it could hurt in the senate. With state-wide races it's easy to find a couple trunks full of ballots at 3:00 am in the morning but that doesn't work if you find the ballots in a big city blue district but they are needed in a rural red district. I am very worried about Pennsylvania's Senate race for this very reason, but I think the house races should be fine. 

Still, it worries me that Biden appears to be this confident. All the polling and the general mood of the country indicates that there should be a huge red wave in the house and a respectable pickup in the Senate. Biden's arguments as to why he thinks he will win are nonsensical, so what does he know that the rest of us don't? I am hoping that he is just trying to spin here, but I worry that something might be up and if the Democrats aren't stopped in 2022 the country is basically dead at that point...