The Taliban are predicting that they will take Afghanistan soon after US troops leave for good.

 

Afghan troops. AFP.

The Taliban are predicting that they will take Afghanistan soon after US troops leave for good. AFP. Afghan troops are in retreat and will soon lose their biggest advantage, US air support. US troops began withdrawing in May and since then the Taliban claim to have taken 30 districts. The Taliban have taken many rural areas and are encircling major cities. The Afghan government claim that they can withstand any major assault from the Taliban, due to their own air strike capability and the Taliban's lack of heavy weapons. Talks between the government and the Taliban have fallen apart. 

My Comment:

This is a story that is basically being ignored. But I do have to admit that I got the story wrong. I thought that Joe Biden had purposely sabotaged the peace talks so he could go back on his commitment to withdraw us troops. I had thought that the rising level of violence would "force" Joe Biden to re-deploy our troops to Afghanistan. 

But I have seen no evidence that Biden is going to do so. Indeed, many of our troops have already been pulled out and I think we will make our withdrawal date in September. I guess things could change in the coming months but given how the media is ignoring this story I don't think it will be changing.

This means that we are essentially leaving the Afghan government to twist in the wind. I don't think they will be able to survive the Taliban's onslaught and the government will likely fall. They do have their own air force, small as it may be, and more heavy weapons than the Taliban, but they don't have competent leadership or good morale. I think they will lose. 

Should we care? At this point I think we have done all we can for the Afghan government. We have been in Afghanistan for almost 20 years. Indeed, if we pull out on time we will be one month short. We have spent billions of dollars and sacrificed hundreds of lives and at this point we have done about all we can do for the Afghan government. I don't think we have any reason to keep wasting money and lives on the Afghan government. They need to stand on their own. 

There is of course the fear that the Taliban will take over and then give safe haven to groups like al-Qaeda. I am not worried about that. Al-Qaeda is dead and ISIS is no friend to the Taliban. Both groups are at war with each other and I bet the Taliban's first priority after taking down the government will be to take out ISIS once and for all.