Russia intercepts Dutch frigate in the Black Sea.

 

The HNLMS Evertsen. Reuters.

Russia sent jets armed with anti-ship missiles to intercept a Dutch frigate in the Black Sea. Reuters. The armed fighters and bombers launched mock attacks on the frigate and jammed their communication systems over a period of five hours. The Dutch claim they were in international waters while Russia says their planes acted within the law. The frigate was part of a joint patrol with the UK's Royal Navy that included one of their carriers. The Netherlands will raise the incident with Russian diplomats. 

My Comment:

This incident occurred around the same time that the HMS Defender was getting harassed near Crimea. It seems pretty clear that the Russians were not happy with the actions of this Carrier Strike Group that was launched near their territorial waters. They seem pretty confident in harassing these ships. 

This is pretty obviously a case of saber rattling from both sides. Yes, the HNLMS Eversten did have a right to be in the Black Sea but they also knew that sending the ship there would be seen as an aggression. And the over-the-top reaction from the Russians is also all about sending messages. 

What are those messages? For the UK/Dutch its a twofold one. First that the seas are free and they can operate anywhere they want if they choose to do so. Second, they do not recognize Russia's defacto control of the Crimean Peninsula. For the Russians they are saying that if you interfere with their business you can be destroyed. Don't violate Russian territorial claims because they will respond if you do. 

I don't really think either side is in the right here. Provoking the Russians over Crimea is a joke as it's never reverting back to the control of Ukraine. But I also think that the Russians reaction was a bit extreme. Simply shadowing the fleet and giving them warnings if they approach your territory is the standard action, not jamming electronics and launching mock attacks. 

That being said, I think both sides are using this situation for training and intelligence gathering. The Dutch and British now know how Russia will respond if their borders are threatened and I am sure they got a ton of data on Russian jets and electronic weapons. Russia too got a little training for their pilots against live targets and discovered what the capabilities of these ships are. 

Do I think there is much of a chance of a major international incidents due to these kinds of incidents? It's very possible, accidents have happened before and sometimes one side just gets pushed to far (like the incident in Turkey where they shot down a Russian jet). But I do think the chances of that are very low and even if something dumb does happen it won't likely turn into a major war.