China sends an entire squadron of fighter jets to test Taiwan's air defenses.

A Chinese Shenyang J-16. Taiwanese military photo
 

China has sent 28 of their fighters to test Taiwan's air defenses. NPR. The incursion is the largest since Taiwan started publishing information on China's military incursions in to their airspace. Taiwan scrambled fighter jets, activated air defense arrays and sent radio messages to the Chinese fighters. The incursion comes after the leaders of NATO agreed that China was a threat and the G7 nations pledged to work against China and condemned their human rights record. China often sends fighters towards Taiwan when other countries criticize them. The flights included an entire squadron of fighter jets, a flight of bombers as well as early warning planes and anti-submarine planes. 

My Comment:

These incursions are dangerous to say the least. Sending so many fighters and bombers is a clear threat and one that forces Taiwan to respond. Though a war is unlikely, it's very possible that something could go wrong. An air to air collision might happen, either side might fire a missile or something even more stupid could happen and then we have a war on our hands. 

The more planes involved in these violations the more likely something goes wrong. Indeed, with so many planes involved in this it would have been reasonable for Taiwan to consider themselves to be under attack. They could have responded in kind and shot down some of these fighters and bombers. I wouldn't have blamed them if they did so even though the results would have been a disaster for basically everyone on earth. 

I do wonder what China's goal is here. It's been clear that they have had designs on Taiwan since the country's creation. And they have been working at modernizing their military so they can actually try and take the island. I have said in the past that China would probably lose any such war as their military hasn't been tested since the 1979 war with Vietnam, a war that they lost. 

But is that their goal here? I don't think so. I think even China understands that they aren't anywhere near where they need to be to even defeat Taiwan's military alone, let alone America's Navy. I don't think that they are going to invade Taiwan in the near future. 

It's possible that this is an intelligence operation. By launching these raids they are finding out how strong Taiwan's defenses are and how good their response time is. That's critical information for them if they ever do go to war. 

My guess is though that this is just saber rattling in response to the massive amount of criticism they are getting internationally. NATO has basically declared them a foe, the American media finally turned on them and admitted they may responsible for the Coronavirus and now everyone is concerned about their nuclear power plant. To save some face I think they are launching these air raids to remind everyone that they are still fairly strong...