Chinese media says that the country is now ready to defeat the United States in a military conflict.

 

Troops from the United States, Japan, France and Australia during a joint training exercise. Newsweek/US DOD.

An editorial in the state sponsored Global Times says that China is now ready to defeat the United States in a military conflict. Newsweek.  Hu Xijin, the Global Times editor in chief made the comment last Wednesday. The comments come as the United States, France, Japan and Australia hold their first joint training exercise on Japanese soil. The commentary stated that China could now defeat the United States and its allies in any naval conflict. China has become more aggressive in pushing its maritime claims. 

My Comment:

I have been unable to find the commentary that the Newsweek article mentioned and quoted from. I have found several articles from Hu Xijin, including this one where he threatens Australia but nothing on the current military exercises in Japan. Whenever you see quotes in an article referencing another article but no direct source it raises red flags for me. 

Regardless, reading other articles from the Global Times it is obvious that the Chinese media is more confident than it really should be that China could win a war with the United States and its allies. That seems optimistic at best and totally misguided at worse. 

Given how powerful America and our allies are I don't think China could achieve anything more than a Pyrrhic victory against the United States. That is to say that they could somehow destroy enough of our ships and aircraft that we bow out of the war for political reasons. And even that would probably leave most of China's navy destroyed along with much of their air force. It wouldn't be a one sided battle but it would be one that China would lose more than they could afford even if they pull out ahead. 

The one advantage that China does have is that there is next to zero desire for any new wars from the American people. In general, Americans are sick of war and have very little to show for the 20 years of post 9/11 adventurism. If China were to invade Taiwan, for example, I doubt there would be very few people outside of the Military-Industrial complex that would care. 

China should also understand that they have not fought in a major war since Korea. They did have a military conflict with Vietnam but pretty much they lost that conflict. They have a large and advancing military but almost zero military experience. In a new war they would have very little experience to draw on. 

So is war with China likely? I doubt it. They still do not have the military capability to take back Taiwan or enforce their territorial demands in the Pacific. A war could break out for stupid reasons, as they do occasionally break out that way, but I doubt that a purposeful war will start anytime soon. All sides involved have too much to lose.