China updates children policy and will allow couples to have three children.

 

BBC/EPA.

China has announced that they are changing their children policy and will couples to have as many as three children. BBC. China famously had a one child policy that limited couples to having a single child. That limit was changed to two in 2016 and has now been changed again to three. The one child policy led to consequences including demographic changes and gender issues. It is unclear that reversing the policy will change China's demographic problems due to the high cost raising children in the country. 

My Comment:

China's one child policy was clearly a disaster. It did accomplish the goal of reducing the population but it had major problems. Getting rid of population did not turn out to be a good thing as older people retire there are fewer people to tax and take care of them. This should have been a predictable outcome for the Chinese government but I guess it wasn't. 

But the biggest problem is the gender discrepancy the policy created. Chinese people value sons over daughters and many of the people that had their one child did whatever they could, up to and including abortion and infanticide, to make sure they had a son. This lead to a huge surplus of males with little to no hope of ever getting married. 

This has always been a recipe for disaster. Having a large number of men with no prospects is a recipe for revolution and disaster and many of the normal historical ways to fix this problem, mostly warfare and raiding, are not available for China, with the possible exception of a conflict with Taiwan. 

The damage that the one child policy has done is not easily reversed. A couple of generations of people there are now used to small families and the old culture of multiple children is dead. The cultural pressure is not to be underestimated and even efforts from a totalitarian Chinese government might not be enough to change things overnight. It might take effect in a decade or so but it won't do so on the short term.

Plus the birth rate is falling across the world, outside of a few places like sub-Saharan Africa. There is something about modern life that makes people not have kids. Part of it might due to be pollution and other problems. But my guess is that it's just too expensive to raise children. That's certainly the case here in the United States but I think it it's just as true in China.

I do think the one thing we can't expect is that China admitting that it screwed up with its one child policy. It's clear to me that they made a huge mistake and reversing the policy is an admission that it wasn't working but they won't say out loud the obvious. 

Study claims that Chinese scientists not only created the Coronavirus in a lab through gain of function research, they also covered it up.

 

Timeline of the pandemic. Daily Mail. 

A new study due to be published soon claims that Chinese scientists not only created the Coronavirus in a lab through gain of function research but that they also covered it up. Daily Mail. The studies authors said they found markers that would make a natural origin very unlikely. The virus has four amino acids in a row that all have a positive charge, which allows them to cling to human cells with a negative charge. But since positive charges repel positive charges the arrangement would be extremely unlikely to occur in nature. In another explosive claim, the authors said that China had manipulated samples of the SARS-COV2 virus and edited it to make it look like it evolved naturally. The idea that the Coronavirus was a lab experiment that somehow escaped has been dismissed as a conspiracy theory but the idea has gained more traction after a CIA report claimed that three Wuhan lab workers got sick in November of 2019. 

My Comment:

A few disclaimers. First of all I rarely use Daily Mail as a source as they are little better than a tabloid and have an extremely busy website that I don't like. But this article was the best there was for this story and it was a Daily Mail exclusive so I thought I could make an exception in this case.

The other point is that it's critical to note that this study hasn't been peer reviewed yet. Though the peer review process is far from perfect it does help to wait until other scientists have reviewed the data and conducted their own investigation into the study. That doesn't mean the study is wrong or right, just that it's still unproven at this point. 

With that being said, if this report is true then it may be a smoking gun for the idea that the Coronavirus pandemic was a man made disaster and not a natural one. I am far from an expert on viruses but the argument makes sense to me. If the amino acids had a positive charge and were all lined up together that could be strong evidence that the virus was man-made. 

It's important to note that does not confirm the conspiracy theory that China let the Coronavirus out on purpose. That seems extremely unlikely and completely idiotic because it would be an act of war that China would gain nothing from. Instead I think it's evidence that the virus escaped from a lab. 

My guess is that the Coronavirus was being worked on in a lower biosafety lab and due to the lack of precautions and the general incompetence of Chinese scientists the virus escaped. My guess is that the lab workers were exposed to the virus and then brought it back home where it spread until it hit the Wuhan wet market and then the world. Given that the original SARS virus had escaped from Chinese labs several times it would not be a surprise if 2nd SARS virus did the same thing. 

This was already the prevailing theory after the CIA report was released (and probably should have been long before but the media and scientific community had a terminal case of Trump Derangement Syndrome), but I think this new evidence would probably come to as close as confirming it as we are going to get without a confession or a whistleblower from China. 

What is especially damning would be evidence of the Chinese government engaging in a coverup. It's true that some scientists have disappeared or otherwise been silenced but if this report is true and the Chinese created a bunch of viruses to make it look like the SARS-COV-2 virus was natural than that would be damning. However this part of the article was less specific on what evidence they have of that being the case, so I would advise caution. 

The problem of determining the truth here is that there are vested interests in either concealing or fabricating the origin of the Coronavirus. China has every motivation to lie if they were responsible and have extreme amounts of power and control over the World Health Organization. And, in fairness, there are people that would love to blame China regardless of their guilt. Determining the truth is going to be extremely difficult for laypersons. 

What happens if this is the smoking gun? As much as I would like to think that it would cause the fall of the Chinese Communist government, it likely won't. Indeed, I doubt that the Chinese would face any punishment at all, other than a strongly worded letter or some public scolding. Other lab leaks that caused pandemics didn't result in punishment after all.  

What would I want to have happen if the accidental release theory turns out to be fact? A global ban on gain of function research, major sanctions against China and for the worlds government to sue to Chinese Communist government for every penny they have got for the damage they caused. We aren't likely to see that but in a perfect world... 

Illegal immigrant convicted in Mollie Tibbetts murder case.

Mollie Tibbetts before her death. Police Handout. 

An illegal immigrant has been convicted in the Mollie Tibbetts murder case. Fox News. Cristhian Bahena Rivera, an illegal immigrant from Mexico who lived and worked in Iowa, was convicted of first degree murder and will be sentenced to a mandatory life sentence. There was strong evidence that tried Rivera to the victim, including DNA evidence, a confession and the fact that he helped police find the body. The defense argued that Rivera was present at the scene of the murder but two other men had forced him to be the driver while they killed Tibbetts and he testified to that during his trial. They also argued that no murder weapon was found and that no witnesses saw Rivera killing Tibbetts. The defense also argued that Tibbetts boyfriend, Dalton Jack, may have been involved in the murder but a witness testified he was at work at the time. 

My Comment:

I first wrote about the Mollie Tibbetts murder case back when Rivera confessed to the crime and the body was discovered.

At the time I expected this case to be a lot bigger than it was. After all it played into what I thought the 2020 election narrative was going to be. Illegal immigration. However, given the twin crisis's of the Coronavirus pandemic and the riots that destroyed much of America's big cities, the issue of illegal immigration disappeared and any effort to use this case for political hay going either way was not taken advantage of. 

However, it's clear that illegal immigration is still a major issue and the current media coverage of the conviction is evidence of that. Most non-conservatives outlets are describing Rivera as a "farm laborer". They aren't describing him as being from Mexico or addressing his immigration status at all, even ignoring their own doublespeak of calling illegals "undocumented". 

Folks, this seems to me to be an act of outright racism. When I think of a "farm laborer" I don't think of an illegal immigrant from Mexico, I think of a strong young blond farmer boy working with his dad. That's probably a strongly outdated idea of who does actual farm labor but I think it's a stereotype that exists. And the media knows this because they want the people that just read the headlines to assume that this horrible crime was committed by a white person. It's racism. They will do anything to downplay the fact that this crime was caused by an illegal immigrant. 

Regardless of the illegal immigration angle this case was always a disturbing one. It seems to me that what happened in the case was crystal clear. Rivera saw a pretty young girl jogging and decided that he wanted her. She rejected him and that set him off, ending up with Tibbetts dead in a corn field. The crime didn't have anything to do with his race or the fact that he was in the country illegally, but it was a horrible one. He was a murderer that should not have been in this country, but if a similar situation happened in Mexico he probably would have done the same thing there. 

Rivera had very little defense for the accusations. The idea that two murderers would abduct a Mexican man who speaks next to no English and force him to drive them to their murder makes no sense. Why would they need a third person to drive and use his car? Why would they leave a witness to their crime? It makes no sense to me. And accusing the boyfriend, who had an alibi, did not save him in this case. Without having seen the trial I am not sure what I would have done but I can't imagine if I was on that jury I wouldn't have convicted him as well. Still, his lawyers should be commended for at least trying to defend a man that had little in the way of defense. I don't know what I would have done differently in their shoes, even if defending this man would have to be distasteful. 

The sad thing is that the people of Iowa will now have to feed, house and shelter Rivera for the rest of his life. For a man that shouldn't even be in this country. My guess is that he won't do well in prison as the Tibbetts case was big enough that even prisoners probably heard about it. If he's in general population and not protective custody he will probably get beaten or worse for what he did. In a perfect world he would have been deported long before he ever got the chance to hurt anyone. 

As for Mollie Tibbetts herself she seemed like a normal example of her generation. From what I gathered from her social media, she was the kind of person that would be defending Rivera for being in this country illegally. Same with her family. There is something seriously wrong with people if they can't simply condemn an illegal immigrant because they fear being called racist, even after he murdered your own daughter. It's still sad that she died but it's clear the her beliefs and the people that shared them indirectly caused her death. Rivera may have been a murderer regardless of where he was and what race he happened to be but the fact remains that Tibbetts would be alive if he had been deported, which is something she opposed. 

 

I hate white people https://t.co/vNNhvpl98e

— Mollie Tibbetts (@Motibbs) December 13, 2017

 As for what can be learned from this case? I don't know. It was a senseless murder that could have easily been prevented by a deportation but that doesn't seem to be in the cards now. We will likely see more cases like this soon as both immigration enforcement and general law enforcement have been kneecapped. My guess is that they won't get the attention that this case got as it was just a fluke that she became a media cause before her murderer was revealed to be an illegal immigrant.  

Saudi coalition behind build up on Yemeni island.

 

Perim island in the Red Sea. NASA

The Saudi coalition is behind a major military build up on an Yemeni Island in the Red Sea. Reuters. A report from Associated Press showed a new airstrip and three hangers on Perim Island in the Red Sea. The Saudis responded to the report saying that the troops there were to counter Houthi rebels in mainland Yemen. However, they dismissed reports that the UAE has troops on the island as well. Perim Island is on a major trade route and would be a critical possession in any war against Iran. It may also help in efforts to prevent the Iranians from smuggling in weapons and equipment for the Houthi rebels in Yemen.

 My Comment:

Fairly slow news day but this was mildly interesting. It shows that the Saudis are positioning themselves to counter any Iranian efforts to close the Red Sea. Having a major air base would effectively counter any attempts by the Iranian Navy to disrupt shipping. It would be used to launch air strikes against any Iranian ships that try to enter the area. 

I do think that the island base will help against Iran's efforts to supply the Houthis and that it is probably needed by the Saudis. They have had a major problem with the Iranians using hybrid warfare in the Yemen conflict. The weapons that Iran has smuggled into Yemen include ballistic missiles and drones, both major threats to the Saudis. 

In a major war I don't think that the Iranians could do much to eliminate this base either. They don't have a strong navy and their missiles will not reach the area. I guess they could have the Houthis try to launch missile attacks but I don't know if it would be a priority target for them. 

I think there is a small possibility that the Iranians may want to launch a war before this base is operational. I doubt they would do so but it would leave the option of closing the Red Sea, which will no longer be a realistic option once the base is operational. Still, I don't think a war is likely. 

As for the war in Yemen, I don't see any major changes. The country is still a mess and neither side in the conflict is strong enough to defeat the other. That's a major ingredient for stalemate. I don't think that anything will change in the Yemen conflict anytime soon.  

Biden's nominee for head of the ATF David Chipman says he is in favor of an AR-15 ban.

 

David Chipman at the Senate hearing. The Federalist.

Biden's nominee for head of the ATF, David Chipman, says he is in favor of an AR-15 ban. The Federalist. When confronted with his gun control past by Senator Ted Cruz, Chipman explicitly said that he was in favor of a ban on America's most popular rifle. He also characterized the AR-15 as an "especially lethal" weapon, despite it being chambered in a smaller caliber than most hunting rifles. Chipman has previously called for an "assault weapons" ban and spent time working with Gabby Giffords' gun control groups. 

My Comment:

I have already contacted both of my Senators about Mr. Chipman. As far as I am concerned advocating for the ban of any firearm, especially the most popular rifle in America, should permanently bar you from holding any government position. It doesn't matter if you are a dogcatcher or the head of the ATF, if you want to ban firearms you should be disqualified. Incidentally, if you wanted to contact your senators, here's the place you can do so. 

Chipman also lied about the lethality of the AR-15. Most are chambered in .223/5.56, which is an intermediate round of limited power. My .30 caliber rifles (a hunting rifle and a world war II era rifle) both have dramatically more power than the AR-15. 

Do I think that Chipman will be confirmed? I am not sure. I think a few Red State Democrats, like Joe Manchin and Kristyn Sinema may vote against him if they are pressured to do so by their voters. Confirming someone who wants to ban the country's most popular rifle will not play well for the voters that put Manchin and Sinema into office. There is a decent chance that one or both will defect. And I don't see any Republican that doesn't want to commit political suicide voting for Mr. Chipman. 

However, even if Chipman is confirmed I doubt that any new gun control laws are coming. Joe Manchin has already said he won't support an AR-15 ban and since he is the controlling vote in the Senate nothing will be passed. And I am guessing that the GOP will pick up seats in both the senate and the house in 2020, ending the threat of new gun control laws in the foreseeable future. 

Still, it's disgusting that Chipman is even considered. As far as I am concerned the ATF shouldn't exist but if it is going to be there the head of it should not be a person as involved and invested in gun control as David Chipman is. The fact that he got nominated just goes to show how incredibly hostile the Biden administration is towards gun rights. 

Finally, I have to say that an AR-15 ban is almost certainly going to result in a civil war. You can't make millions of people into felons overnight without there being major consequences. And since many of the people own AR-15's to protect themselves from those who would ban AR-15's it would be a major red line that the government would be wise to not cross... 

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signs anti-tech censorship bill.

 

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. The Federalist. 

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has singed a first in the nation anti-tech censorship bill. The Federalist. DeSantis praised the bill and compared the big tech companies censorship campaigns to the kind of censorship that happens in Venezuela and Cuba. The bill will allow private citizens to sue tech companies for up to $100,000 for damages if they are censored or banned. It will also allow the states Attorney General to sue the big tech companies for violating antitrust laws. Finally, the bill prevents tech companies from deplatforming Florida political candidates and imposing a $250,000 a day fines for banning state wide candidates and $25,000 a day for local candidates. 

My Comment:

It's about time that a state took such a strong stance against big tech censorship. The amount of damage that companies like Twitter, Facebook and Google have done to this country is almost incalculable. And their actions in the 2020 election is just one aspect of why I don't consider the results anywhere near legitimate. These tech companies are totally out of control and even have the power to censor the President of the United States. 

Clearly something had to change. This law is a good start. Though most of the media focus has been on the fines for banning politicians it's the fact that normal people can sue the big tech companies for damages. Given how many people make their money online these days and how important social media sites are for gaining money its pretty clear that people should be able to. I know if I was banned from Twitter and Facebook this blog would die pretty much instantly and Google could kick me off of here at anytime. It would be nice if I could do something if that were to ever happen.

Don't get me wrong though, the actions against banning political candidates is a major win as well. I consider the banning of a political candidate from social media to be election interference and an in kind donation to any opposing candidate. It is in no way acceptable and the heavy fines issues in Florida should help defend against it. 

Will this law hold up? I have no idea. I am guessing these big tech companies will somehow say their rights to free speech are being violated somehow. That legal argument seems absurd on its face and would go against other rulings governing free speech. After all, the Christian bakers had to bake the gay marriage cakes. Why can't big tech companies be forced to host content they don't like?

I do hope that other states and even countries go ahead and use this law as a foundation to their own laws against tech censorship. I don't think these laws have any chance of passing in blue or purple states but every state that has control of the government under Republican hands should pass similar bills. If they do big tech will be forced to act like the common carriers that they actually are and end viewpoint discrimination. 

Wuhan lab workers sought medical care before the Coronavirus outbreak was disclosed.

 

The Wuhan Institute of Virology. Reuters.

Wuhan lab workers sought medical care before the Coronavirus outbreak was disclosed. Reuters. The three workers sought treatment in November of 2019, giving more circumstantial evidence that the coronavirus was an accidental lab release. The Biden administration downplayed the report and said that the origins of the Coronavirus pandemic need further investigation. China has strongly disagreed with the lab release theory and cited a WHO report that declared a lab release as being extremely unlikely. 

In addition Dr. Anthony Fauci said that he was not convinced that the Coronavirus developed naturally. Fauci called for further investigations into the origin of the disease. 

My Comment:

I remember when President Trump made the same point, he was called a conspiracy theorist and everyone went to bat for China. But now that he is out of office the idea that the Coronavirus pandemic was a lab leak is now mainstream enough that even Dr. Fauci is admitting it. 

I have thought for a long time that the lab leak theory was a lot stronger than the natural origin theory. Keep in mind that the lab leak theory is not the same as the idea that China let the virus out of the lab on purpose as some kind of biological attack. That theory is bunk and one that wouldn't even make sense in the first place as China had a major viral outbreak themselves. 

But the lab leak theory is a separate theory that China had the virus leak out of one of its Wuhan labs due to incompetence. That was always plausible and the case for it is getting a lot stronger. China has a long history of lab releases. And they were doing gain of function research as these labs on Coronaviruses. It would have been very easy for them to have screwed this up so badly that the virus came from one of these labs. 

If the report was right and people from these labs were getting sick before the pandemic officially started than it is strong evidence that this was a lab leak. It's very possible that these three sick workers may have infected more people before they realized something was going wrong. Eventually the virus made it to the Wuhan wet market and then it spread globally. It's a very plausible theory.

Plus the natural virus theory doesn't make sense. The bats that have these coronaviruses naturally do not live anywhere near Wuhan and a secondary host still has not been found. Plus everything we know says the virus outbreak began in Wuhan and not where these bats live. I am guessing that there was a secondary host and that the host was a lab animal that exposed these workers. 

The problem is that I don't think we will be able to prove it. Unless a whistleblower from China comes forward or the current regime in China is replaced I don't think we will ever know about the true origin of the virus. There will be a strong circumstantial case but we won't be able to prove it. 

Editor's Note: Fishing report.

 

As you may know I spent last week on vacation, which is now drawing to a close. I had a pretty good time spending time with my family but I spent most of my time fishing. It was a very good vacation but that meant I did not spend a lot of time posting or even following the news. Expect things to return to normal after tonight. 

As for fishing, I actually did fairly well. I caught an absolute ton of sheepheads (freshwater drum) including a new personal best, pictured above. That fish was an even 6 lbs which isn't anywhere near as big as they can get but by a large margin the biggest one I have ever caught. I also caught a 3 pound one tonight. Sheepheads are far from my favorite fish and aren't really good for much of anything but they are fun to catch when they are bigger. 

I also caught a new personal best white bass, which isn't saying much as I only have caught two of them for sure. In my previous post about fishing I said I wasn't sure if I had ever caught any but that is no longer true as I caught two this week. Both were pretty small but it was nice to catch a fish I hadn't caught before. Like the big sheephead, I caught the white bass on #5 rippin raps. It's about the only success I have had with artificial lures this year. 

I did have some funny catches as well... 

That minnow wasn't a snag by the way. The thing actually hit my ripping rap. I saw a school of them and thought I could jig in case a white bass or white perch was underneath them but instead the minnow actually hit the lure! And the bass? That's about the size of largemouth I usually catch... 

I do have to say that I am kind of disappointed that I did not catch any catfish. I tried some store bought cut shad and it didn't do a thing. I also tried a live small rock bass but it got no action either. I kept that rock bass and another one that swallowed the hook and the next time I go I am going to use them as cut bait. 

In short, it was a good week of fishing and I am glad that I have gotten back into fishing. With ammo still unavailable it was going to be a long time before I could do my other outdoor hobby and I am glad I have found something else to do outside. 

Conservatives are pushing back against the new "woke" military.

 

Senator Ted Cruz. Politico/Getty. 

Conservatives are pushing back against the new "woke" military. Politico. Many are concerned with a series of recruitment ads which focus on left wing hobby horses such as gay marriage instead of war fighting, with Senator Ted Cruz going so far as to say that the left are trying to make the military into "pansies". Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has focused on "diversity" and rooting out "extremism" but has paid little public attention to actually fighting wars. Austin has mandated troops get training on diversity and inclusion while the Biden administration has lifted regulations banning transgendered people from serving and focused on climate change as a major threat. They have also fired a Space Force commander, Lt. Col. Matthew Lohmeire after he spoke out about critical race theory and marxism. 

My Comment:

In a time when America is under threat of losing our global military supremacy it is insane to me that the Democrats are trying to insert woke ideology into the United States military. The military has one goal and one goal alone and that is to win wars. But these new changes under the Biden administration are doing the exact opposite. 

Indeed, Ted Cruz had a good point when he compared the woke ad I posted above to a Russian ad. The Russian ad, and other ones I have seen from countries like China, feature strong young men training hard and preparing for war. The US Army ad? A woke white woman talking about herself and how special she is for two minutes. I've got nothing against this Corporal Malonelord, but I know who I would rather have on my side if I was in a firefight. Hell, the Russian and Chinese adds are so patriotic and masculine I wanted to sign up.

The major difference here is that Russia and China seem pretty obviously primarily concerned about winning hypothetical wars. In America? It's about pushing a rotten political ideology with warfighting not even a secondary concern. Given that there is a decent chance America and China will have a war in the next 25 years (and a small chance of a war with Russia) it does not bode well for America's chances in any such war. 

But the rot goes a lot deeper than a few woke political ads. The Biden Administration seems primarily focused on both purging the military of anyone even remotely right wing while at the same time using the military to advance critical race theory and other nonsense like climate change. And it's important to note that the purge of military officials began under Barack Obama, with his administration firing dozens of generals and admirals for having the wrong political beliefs. 

Domestically I have mixed feelings about this. I do want a strong military but I also want one that is loyal to America and it's ideals. It's very clear that under Joe Biden the military will be considerably weaker and actively hostile to America's ideals. In the event of any kind of civil conflict I'd prefer a strong military that could put down any hypothetical treason committed by Biden administration. But failing that a weak military more concerned about pregnant pilots and transgender commandos is a less dangerous enemy in event of a civil war. Plus they are likely to purge anyone that is competent and loyal to the constitution giving any rebel movement a good recruitment base. 

Still, it's utterly disgusting that we even have to think about that. In a decent world the people getting purged would be the people spouting woke critical race theory garbage. It's just out and out racism and has very little to do with the actual people and conditions of this country. 

Whenever the Republicans take control of the Senate and House again they need to legislate all they can to prevent this cancer from spreading further. And if the GOP takes back the White House in 2024 they need to do whatever they can to purge this nonsense from the military. 

I can't think of a better way to destroy the military than what they are doing right now. They are recruiting people that have no business being in an uniform and destroying the morale of the actual warfighters. And they are promoting politics over competence which is always a disaster when a war breaks out and it may be breaking out soon. I just wish I could say that this nonsense was on the way out but I don't see it happening until at least 2022. 

Mark McCloskey, a St. Louis man who used a rifle to defend himself against Black Lives Matter, is running for senate.

 

Mark McCloskey and his wife appear on TV. Fox News. 

Mark McCloskey, a St. Louis man who used a rifle to defend himself against a Black Lives Matter mob is running for Senate in Missouri. Fox News. McCloskey told Tucker Carlson that he intends to protect the citizens of Missouri the same way he protected his wife and home. He also said that claims that he was a Democrat were false, though he was not political in the past. McCloskey also criticized the Biden administration for attacks on civil liberties and "socialist" policies like major unemployment benefits causing a worker shortage. McCloskey joins former governor Eric Greitens and Attorney General Eric Schmitt in running for Roy Blunt's senate seat in 2022, as Blunt is retiring at the end of his term. 

My Comment:

As a reminder, the McCloskeys were at home when the Black Lives Matter riots happened last summer. A large group of rioters broke into a private road, knocking down a gate and then made threats to the McCloskeys They both grabbed firearms and the crowd quickly backed down when they saw the two with firearms. Both were later charged in a politically motivated case, but the governor has already said they will be pardoned if convicted. 

I generally support the McCloskeys actions that day. The Black Lives Matter movement has already shown that they are extremely violent and that they specifically hate upper class white people. The McCloskeys had every reason to believe that their property was about to be destroyed and that they were about to be killed. I personally would not convict them of the charges against them and even if they had opened fire on the crowd I believe they would be legally justified. 

Does that mean that Mark McCloskey belongs in the Senate? I am not sure. Though McCloskey claims he was never a Democrat his actual political background is pretty scarce. He's obviously pro-2nd Amendment and is against the presidency of Joe Biden, which are both positives for me, but other than that his political ideology is a mystery to me. 

There is also the matter of his criminal charges. Though I certainly believe that the charges against him were vindictive, reached the level of misconduct and completely politically motivated, the fact remains that a lot of people are not going to want to vote for someone who has a felony charge over his head. Plus the trial is scheduled for November, but there is no guarantee that the matter will be settled by 2022. 

Without more knowledge of the other candidates it's hard to compare how McCloskey stacks up. I do know that former Governor Eric Greitans had to resign because of a sex scandal and criminal charges due to that scandal. The charges didn't stick but it seems like the only candidate in this race so far to not have any major issues is Attorney General Eric Schmitt. Either way, it's way too early to judge these candidates. 

Personally I do kind of want McCloskey to win as it would be a major victory against out of control Democratic officals that seem to think those that fight against rioters are more of a threat than the rioters themselves. McCloskey deserves a reward for defending his home and a Senate seat might be a good message to these people. Voters should have the chance to reject attacks on the 2nd amendment and send a clear message to Black Lives Matter rioters. 

Still, this will be a major senate seat to watch and a lot can happen between now and November 2022. There is no guarantee that McCloskey will be the candidate and there are other viable candidates in the race as well.  And without a extensive examination of the candidates actual positions it is too early to decide who to support in this senate race. 

Supreme Court rules that police cannot search homes without a warrant for safety reasons.

 

The US Supreme Court. US Government photo.

The Supreme Court has ruled that police cannot search homes without a warrant using the caretaking exception to the 4th amendment. NBC News. The case involved a suicidal man that owned two firearms. Police were called and the man agreed to a medical evaluation on the condition that the police didn't take his firearms. Police took his firearms anyways using the caretaking exception using a 1973 case involving an impounded car and a firearm. The exception said that police could use evidence they found while doing duties unrelated to crime, such as helping an injured person. The Justices said that the lower courts were wrong and their interpretation of the 1973 case was too broad as it never should have involved entering someone's home and that the standard should be more strict there. However, the justices said that the emergency exception to the 4th amendment still exists.

My Comment:

Though this is a 4th Amendment case I consider it to be a major victory for gun rights as the case involved the confiscation of firearms. The police had no warrant here and also lied about what they were going to do. They should not have been able to confiscate firearms without a court order or a felony conviction here but they did anyways. 

I generally think the 4th Amendment has too many exceptions to it anyways. I do think that if a cop sees something that they would see in plain sight they should be able to use that but if they are searching a house for firearms without a warrant that's obviously wrong. I am glad that this case was decided this way. 

In this case especially what the cops did was despicable. The man was in a bad place and the cops were only supposed to be doing a welfare check. They had no reason to take his firearms and had no basis for a search as he had not committed any crime. He had just threatened suicide and that's enough for cops to take someone's weapons?

For all the talk about mental health I can't help but say that the very idea that you could get your guns taken away in this kind of situation is very disturbing. I know there are a lot of people out there that simply won't talk to mental health professionals due to the fact that one of the few ways to lose your gun rights for good is to be involuntarily committed. If people truly wanted fewer deaths from suicides' not threatening your property rights just because you asked for help is a good start. 

It's important to note that the Biden administration wanted to go the other way with this. They apparently do not respect the constitution and think that the 4th amendment is just like the 1st and 2nd. Outdated at best and threats at worst. I am glad that the Supreme Court gave them a unanimous rebuke. 

Chinese media says that the country is now ready to defeat the United States in a military conflict.

 

Troops from the United States, Japan, France and Australia during a joint training exercise. Newsweek/US DOD.

An editorial in the state sponsored Global Times says that China is now ready to defeat the United States in a military conflict. Newsweek.  Hu Xijin, the Global Times editor in chief made the comment last Wednesday. The comments come as the United States, France, Japan and Australia hold their first joint training exercise on Japanese soil. The commentary stated that China could now defeat the United States and its allies in any naval conflict. China has become more aggressive in pushing its maritime claims. 

My Comment:

I have been unable to find the commentary that the Newsweek article mentioned and quoted from. I have found several articles from Hu Xijin, including this one where he threatens Australia but nothing on the current military exercises in Japan. Whenever you see quotes in an article referencing another article but no direct source it raises red flags for me. 

Regardless, reading other articles from the Global Times it is obvious that the Chinese media is more confident than it really should be that China could win a war with the United States and its allies. That seems optimistic at best and totally misguided at worse. 

Given how powerful America and our allies are I don't think China could achieve anything more than a Pyrrhic victory against the United States. That is to say that they could somehow destroy enough of our ships and aircraft that we bow out of the war for political reasons. And even that would probably leave most of China's navy destroyed along with much of their air force. It wouldn't be a one sided battle but it would be one that China would lose more than they could afford even if they pull out ahead. 

The one advantage that China does have is that there is next to zero desire for any new wars from the American people. In general, Americans are sick of war and have very little to show for the 20 years of post 9/11 adventurism. If China were to invade Taiwan, for example, I doubt there would be very few people outside of the Military-Industrial complex that would care. 

China should also understand that they have not fought in a major war since Korea. They did have a military conflict with Vietnam but pretty much they lost that conflict. They have a large and advancing military but almost zero military experience. In a new war they would have very little experience to draw on. 

So is war with China likely? I doubt it. They still do not have the military capability to take back Taiwan or enforce their territorial demands in the Pacific. A war could break out for stupid reasons, as they do occasionally break out that way, but I doubt that a purposeful war will start anytime soon. All sides involved have too much to lose. 

Editor's Note: Vacation

 

Today marks the first day of my vacation. I will be off until the 23rd, so posting may be sparse or at unusual times. I probably will keep up posting as I am not traveling but you never know. Honestly, with the news being dominated by the Israel conflict it might be a good time to take a little break from blogging. 

I do have some plans next week though. I hope I can go fishing. The White Bass are supposedly running up here and I would love to catch some. I have had some luck fishing this year but it would be nice to have a great day of fishing.

The only problem is that I am still recovering from a cold and my allergies have been absolutely awful this year. Thankfully it will soon be warm enough to run air conditioning which helps quite a bit. I'm not sure why my allergies are so bad this year but I am assuming it has a lot to do with the mild winter and early spring. Either way, I won't let my allergies stop me from having fun! 

CDC drops mask mandate for fully vaccinated people.

 

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris making the announcement. NPR/AFP.

The CDC announced today that fully vaccinated Americans no longer need to wear facemasks while inside. NPR. The policy is based on studies of vaccinated people in the United States and Israel. There are exceptions to the new policy as the mask mandate for federal transportation services, like planes and trains, will remain in force for everyone. Masks can also still be required by local mandates and by businesses and workplaces. And people who have not been vaccinated are still recommended to wear the masks. 

My Comment:

This policy is long overdue. Not only did it make zero sense to have fully vaccinated people continue to wear the masks, it also took away one of the main reasons to actually get the vaccine. Not having to wear a mask all the time is a major reason why low risk people would want the vaccine but the Biden admin and the CDC never did anything about it until now. 

Though I approve of this move, I think it's going to be a very ugly few days for anyone that works in a job that has to enforce mask mandates. Those jobs tend to be tough already but with this CDC announcement there are going to be a ton of people that will ignore local or business mandates and cite the CDC as the reason why. Given that there was no lead up to this announcement, businesses have not had any time to readjust their policies. 

There is also the problem of how anyone is going to know who is actually vaccinated or not. I know they released those stupid vaccine cards but I know I am not comfortable showing mine to people and I doubt many people who are vaccinated will want to show theirs off. And it would be trivially easy for an unvaccinated person to just lie about being vaccinated in order to ditch the mask. Plus there are a ton of fake vaccine cards out there already circulating in case people do start checking them. 

I think a lot of people will likely get sick from this. Not from the Coronavirus mind you but from every other disease that the masks have been preventing. People will be catching colds at a pretty high rate and once flu season begins in the fall people will be catching it again. I know in my case, last year when everyone was super serious about masks, I didn't get sick once. But this year when everyone got sick of them and mandates were eased? I have already gotten two colds this year, including the one I have now and am slowly recovering from. 

I also worry that many of the people who have worn masks for the entire pandemic might have weaker immune systems now. Without regular exposure to germs bad things can happen to an immune system. I think a lot of children will develop allergies and people may be more vulnerable to disease after they ditch the masks. 

The effect this will have will vary from region to region. I know in my state masks had pretty much been ditched outside of businesses that required it. People generally no longer wear them outside and only wear them inside if a business requires it. But I know Wisconsin is not America and other states will have different reactions. For here it's just a shrug, but for states that have been under mask mandates for the duration it will be a major relief. 

Will some people still be wearing masks? Probably. For many people on the left wearing a mask had little to do with the virus and a lot to do with hatred of people who didn't want to wear a mask. And there are quite a few people that are way more concerned with the disease then they really should be. I think there is an argument for the Asian model of mask wearing, wear it when you are sick, but I think many people will just continue to wear it regardless of what the CDC says.

Is there a chance that the CDC will reverse this mandate? I think it's possible. The media is hyping up what is happening in India right now and saying the Coronavirus variants there are more dangerous. I don't see what is happening in India happening in the United States as we are not a country that smears cow dung on ourselves to treat the virus. And before you call me racist, let me point out that it is actually happening over there.

Despite the troubles in India I think it is clear that the Coronavirus pandemic is on the way out. With so many people now immune to the virus, either due to the vaccines or natural immunity, the virus has few people that it can infect. Without new hosts the virus will eventually die out and I think by the fall the virus will be nothing but a bad memory. Fingers crossed!

124 retired generals and admirals sign an open letter criticizing US elections and questioning the mental fitness of Joe Biden.

 

Flag Officers 4 America's logo. 

124 retired generals and admirals have signed an open letter criticizing US elections and questioning the mental fitness of Joe Biden. The Hill. The officers said that America will be lost without fair and secure elections that respect the will of the people. They also blasted the FBI and the Supreme Court for not investigating accusations of voter fraud. The officers also questioned the mental ability of Joe Biden, who is 77 years old. The letter also says that America is facing its biggest challenge since 1776 due to the Democrat's embrace of Socialists and Marxists. 

The letter can be found here.

My Comment:

This letter is probably inspired by the recent French letters from former and active duty French military. Those letters created quite a stir in France and may have even turned French President Emmanuel Macron more to the right. In those letters the French warned that their country was in dire straits due to immigration and cultural marxism and that it could lead to civil war.

I think this letter is warning of basically the same thing. The country is on a dangerous path and the Biden administration seems completely incapable of doing anything about it. Indeed, they seem incapable of doing anything about anything. Just look at the last few months, inflation is up, gas prices are up and there are shortages, the Middle East has devolved into war, our allies our furious and there is no indication that the culture war will cool down anytime soon. 

The media has been extremely critical of this letter and in every single piece they conclude that the idea that there was election fraud has been completely disproven. This is despite the fact that the idea never had a real day in court with every case being decided in a Kafkaesque fashion where pre-election cases were rejected on because the couldn't prove damage and the post-election ones were rejected on standing. Evidence was never heard and until very recently there weren't any investigations or credible audits. 

This knee-jerk rejection of a concern of millions of Americans and leaving them with no recourse is why I think that a civil war could happen. There is no reason to not address these concerns and at least point out that Joe Biden has nothing like a mandate. Even if there wasn't enough fraud to change the outcome of the election (and keep in mind, nobody actually knows because the evidence has never been heard in court) Biden wasn't elected in anything like an unanimous fashion.  

As for Joe Biden's health, it's been clear for a long time that the man is not in good health. I followed his career for awhile now and their has been an obvious and dramatic decline in his mental abilities and speech since he was Vice President. I don't think he's capable of making decisions, which brings up the question, who is really in charge? I don't think it is Kamala Harris, who seems to have been shut out, but who does that leave? 

I do hope that active duty troops do something similar to what the French did and sign their own anonymous letter. As impactful as these generals are, having the troops do it themselves will show the Biden administration that they need to take action to actually appeal to the half of the country that did not vote for him. Though they could be punished for it, I would consider it a supreme act of bravery.  

School shooting in Russia leaves at least 8 people dead

 

School #175 in Kazan. BBC/EPA.

A school shooting in Kazan, Russia has left at least 8 people dead, including 7 students and a teacher. BBC. A 19 year old suspect was captured by police, and he was a legal gun owner. In addition to the deaths at least 20 other people were wounded. Some of the deaths and injuries may have been due to people jumping from 2nd story windows to escape the shooter. Vladimir Putin commented on the incident and said that gun laws may be reviewed. A motive for the attack has not been released but local sources say that the suspect was a former student at the school. 

My Comment:

This is a breaking news story and as such some of the information may become inaccurate as time passes and more information becomes available. I have seen other numbers for the number of deaths with 8, 9 and 11 being the most common. The information wasn't even consistent on BBC as the article claims 8 while the link said 11. There was also the normal "2nd shooter" disinformation that always happens during a terror attack or mass shooting but usually isn't accurate. 

It just goes to show that mass shootings and school shootings are not a strictly American phenomenon. Russia too has a fairly horrific history of mass shootings at schools, with the most recent being the shooting in Crimea back in 2018. And it's impossible to forget the Beslan school siege back in 2004, which remains one of the most disturbing attacks on a school in recent history. This attack seems particularly bad given the large number of students killed and injured. 

The motive remains unknown but there are several possibilities. The region that this incident occurred in is mostly Muslim so it's possible that it was a terror attack, either against or in the name of Islam. It's also very possible that this was more traditional school shooting. I know the shooter in the Crimea shooting venerated Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold, the Columbine shooters, so it's possible something similar happened here. 

It does make me wonder how much of a role the American media had to play in this attack. For awhile earlier in the year in was gun control all the time with every shooting played up to extreme levels and wall to wall coverage of any shooting at all. Since it has been proven that coverage of these attacks often inspires copycat attacks I think it's possible that the shooter in this case was inspired to do so due to media coverage of American mass shootings. That is of course speculation on my part, but it does seem to be what happened with the Crimea case in 2018.

I don't know how well prepared the police were for a mass shooting in this part of Russia. Mass shootings aren't uncommon in Russia despite their draconian gun laws. And the country has a long, bloody history of terrorism and mass violence. I assume that they have the same plans that American schools and police departments have but who knows? I am far from an expert on Russian education and law enforcement. 

What does seem clear is that Russia's already limited gun rights are going to be threatened due to this incident. Vladimir Putin said he will review gun laws and it looks like they are going to reclassify the weapon used in the attack. I don't know the specific firearm but supposedly it would be considered an "assault weapon" here but was classified as a hunting weapon in Russia. That is probably going to change unfortunately as once again everyone's right to self defense is threatened by these kinds of mass shootings. 

I don't think any new gun control laws would have done anything to stop this incident. Russia is a corrupt country and guns are easy enough to find illegally, but even if the jumps and hoops of owning a firearm changed, we have to point out that the attacker was supposedly a legal gun owner regardless. He already passed the background checks without anyone knowing what he was planning on doing.

East coast gas stations are running out of gas due to a cyber attack.

 

People fuel up their vehicles. Bloomberg.

A major cyber-ransom attack has shut down a major pipeline and is leading to gas shortages in the southeast United States. Bloomberg. Gas stations in Florida, North Carolina and Alabama are seeing shortages with some stations out of gas and others imposing limits as cars stack up. The pipeline was attacked by a ransomware collective known as DarkSide and Colonial Pipeline says the pipeline will not be fully operational until this weekend. With the pipeline shut down emergency shipments of fuel are being sent by truck. The attack is having an effect on gas prices in areas not even in the service area of the pipeline due to increased demand. The timing of the attack was unfortunate due to the summer driving season beginning soon.

Video coming out of Asheville, North Carolina show the fuel shortage in effect.

Some gas stations are completely out of supply, while others have lineups. pic.twitter.com/7xrSoPA99G

— Marie Oakes (@TheMarieOakes) May 11, 2021

My Comment:

Some people on the left were saying that Joe Biden was going to be the next FDR. It seems pretty clear that he's going to be the next Jimmy Carter. Carter had a major gas crisis where people had to wait in line for hours for gasoline that wasn't even there. And now we are seeing that again under Biden as well.

Hopefully this crisis won't last as long as Carter's mess did. In theory the situation should be resolved by the weekend, but that is a long time. With a panic buy already on gas stations will probably be out of fuel in a couple of days. When the fuel runs out things will get ugly. People won't be able to drive to work, businesses won't be able to ship their products and everything could shut down for awhile. 

It's fairly insane to me that the cyber security at this pipeline company would be so terrible. Not only is it a major business, it's a strategic asset and as such it should have the best security money can buy. But on the other hand it only takes one idiot opening the wrong e-mail to bring down an entire company. 

If some random hacker collective could do this, imagine what a state actor could do during a time of war? Our gas infrastructure is only a small part of our economy and just taking out our largest pipeline could bring much of our economy to a halt. If these hackers had hit our power plants or hospitals things could have gone much worse.  

I think Biden's energy policy has a lot to do with the problems here. He canceled the Keystone pipeline and has banned fracking on federal lands. This has damaged our supplies and made it harder to respond to this crisis. This was always going to be a disaster if it happened but much of the damage could have been mitigated. 

This will also have a major impact on gas prices. The prices have already doubled since the low days of the Coronavirus pandemic and now have about a dollar more than they were before than pandemic. This will only make things worse as the panic buy will increase demand and the prices aren't likely to go down immediately after the crisis is resolved. 

Melinda Gates reportedly decided to divorce Bill Gates because of his friendship with the late Jeffrey Epstein.

 

Melinda Gates in 2011. World Economic Forum.

Melinda Gates reportedly decided to divorce Bill Gates because of his friendship with the late Jeffrey Epstein, a convicted pedophile and trafficker. The Hill. Melinda Gates had met with divorce lawyers as soon as 2019, the year Epstein died in a prison cell after being arrested for trafficking and child abuse. Bill Gates and Epstein reportedly had many meetings together and those meetings were documented in a New York Times article. Melinda Gates was reportedly uncomfortable with Epstein as soon as she met him in 2013. Notably, that was after Epstein's first conviction for child prostitution. 

The paywalled Wall Street Journal report can be found here. 

My Comment:

Normally I wouldn't comment on something as minor as a divorce, even if it was a divorce among billionaires. But this seems like a major story regardless. The Jeffrey Epstein case never had the impact that I was hoping for and it looks like there are finally going to be some consequences for the people that were involved with him. 

That being said, I do have a couple of warnings about this story that could make it turn out to be false. The first is that the actual article itself is paywalled, which is generally a bad sign. Secondly, the original report relies on a pair of anonymous sources. So many stories based on reports by anonymous sources have turned out to be false that I would be derelict in my duty if I didn't mention it. 

It is also possible that Melinda Gates wanted this story to leak in order to get better terms in her divorce. After all, what judge is going to be sympathetic to someone that hangs around with a convicted pedophile? Plus throwing Bill under the bus mitigates Melinda's responsibility for being seen with Epstein. This might just be a media smokescreen. 

I do have to wonder why this story took so long to break. After all, Bill Gates and his connection to Jeffrey Epstein have been well known for years, even before the 2019 story broke with Epstein's arrest and supposed suicide. It's not like this was a secret or anything.

Then again, I do think the accusations did percolate through to the right in America. To say that Bill Gates is a divisive figure to the right is a major understatement as he is utterly hated by most people in the right wing. The connection to Epstein is a major part of it, though Gates is not helped by his out of touch lectures attempting to shame people for their behavior. Consperiacy theories about Gates were already common but I think they will explode now, with at least some of the theories about him possibly being confirmed by this report. 

I do wish the media would cover the Epstein story again. There were a lot of people that were named in those flight logs that were never really even questioned about it. Bill Clinton, former governor Bill Richardson, and Alan Dershowitz never faced any consequences. Prince Andrew did but never served a day in prison for his role. Epstein is dead and his girlfriend, Ghislaine Maxwell, is in jail awaiting trial, but a lot more people should be facing justice here. 

As far as I know, there isn't any evidence that Bill Gates actually abused anyone and that the divorce is only because he showed extremely poor judgement in meeting with Epstein after his 2008 conviction. It's very possible that Gates did in fact do so but there isn't any evidence of that so far. Regardless though, it's likely that the days of Bill Gates being a media darling are pretty much done. 

Very bad jobs reports as workers are not returning to work as expected.

 

Construction workers wait in line to get their temperature taken. Reuters. 

American job growth slowed in April with only 266,000 new jobs being created. Reuters. Economists believed that almost a million jobs were expected in April. The numbers for March were also reevaluated and only 770,000 jobs were created as opposed to 916,000. The unemployment rate rose to 6.1%. The problem appears to be due to a labor shortage as demand for products increased in the same time. Some are blaming workers being afraid of the Coronavirus despite vaccinations or difficulty in finding childcare. However, many economists are blaming the major unemployment benefits increase that was passed under the Covid relief bills. The unemployment benefit which includes normal payments plus a $300 a week bonus pays more than many lower wage jobs, leaving little incentive for lower wage workers to work.  

My Comment:

It seems strange that we have a labor shortage at the same time unemployment is so high. But that certainly seems to be the case right now. We have a situation where nobody can find jobs and nobody can find workers. Part of the problem is that the workers needed are not the same as the workers that are out of work. An unemployed restaurant worker might not want have the skills to work at a manufacturing job and so forth. 

I can confirm that the labor shortage is real here in Northeast Wisconsin. I trend to listen to the radio when I drive so I hear a lot of radio commercials and it seems like every single one is a manufacturing plant looking for workers. My own place of employment is fairly desperate for workers and had to actually briefly slow production down as there wasn't enough line workers to work at full speed. 

I think that the obvious problem is the fact that benefits are so high right now. Everyone is flush with cash right now from tax returns and the last stimulus payment and if you are also on unemployment you are getting even more money. Why would you want to take a paycut to work hard at a smelly, dirty factory when you could just sit at home instead? I can't blame people for not wanting to work!

I think this is probably the strongest argument against Andrew Yang's Universal Basic Income plan. When people have enough money to get buy they simply are not going to work. There is no incentive to do so unless you can get a lot more money than you get from the government. And right now the government is making a much better offer. 

I don't think that's the only factor though. I think the child care issues from home schooling many of our kids is kinda screwing things up. In a two parent household someone's got to stay home and watch the kids even if the kids are doing at home learning. Without the free child care schools provide it's very easy for the cost of childcare to make it not worth it for one parent to work. And I think some of these people will realize that staying home taking care of the kids is not so bad after all. 

I also think the eviction ban might have played a role as well. I am guessing there is a huge number of people that simply aren't paying their rent right now and that means too that they would be less inclined to work. A judge just threw that out so we might see a large number of evictions and that could lead to better jobs numbers in May when people realize that they actually need money to have a place to live again. 

I don't really think fear of the virus factors into it. Fear of the Coronavirus seems to be exclusively an upper class thing that's mostly about virtue signaling. Among the working and lower classes it's an after thought at best or a scam at worst. With vaccinations now common I think the virus is mostly an afterthought for most working class people. 

Biden's policies are to blame for some job loss as well. His crusade against energy production cost quite a few jobs and those are the kind of people that aren't going to take a lower paying job. These are skilled labor jobs that aren't easily replaced and I haven't heard any answer of what these people are supposed to do. 

I really don't see the economy being in a good place right now. It's been propped up because the government has been throwing money at people. That's not sustainable and is already causing price increases and inflation. Eventually the band aid is going to have to be ripped off and the people on benefits are going to have to go back to work. But given which party is in charge I expect a lot of damage to be done before that point. And it's very possible that we could be heading to a period of stagflation... 

Should Republicans support Caitlyn Jenner in the California recall election?

 

Caitlyn Jenner in 2015. UN photo.

As you may know it looks like Caitlyn Jenner's run for California's recall election is actually serious. I first covered Jenner's announcement that she was running here. Since that post Jenner has been on a press tour where she had an interview with Sean Hannity.

That's kind of a big deal as Hannity is one of the larger conservative outlets out there and to have her on is an endorsement of a sort. It shows that she's a serious candidate and there doesn't appear to be too many of those in California going up against Gavin Newsom. No, the guy running around with a bear doesn't count. 

I didn't watch the Hannity video but from what I understand Jenner did a fairly decent job. Reading reactions even people who dislike or are disgusted by Jenner said that she hit the right notes and was someone they might vote for. I personally generally like her policies as far as I have heard and I was also aware that she was conservative even back when she was still Bruce. 

But can Republicans get over the fact that she is Transgender? Should they? That's the big question I have been wondering about lately. There is a strong argument for doing so. Obviously the biggest is Gavin Newsom himself. He has been terrible as a governor and has done massive damage to the State of California. It's hard to imagine anyone worse. 

Supporting Jenner also does damage to the narrative that Republicans are bigots. Jenner is transgender and electing her to the governors office would make the argument that Republicans hate all LGBT people. Maybe not to Democrats, they are already saying that Jenner is not a "real" trans person, but for people in the center it might be a convincing argument.

And it seems as though Jenner supports a lot of things that many Republicans support. She's not in favor of trans athletes competing in high school sports, she's in favor of the border wall and she's anti-lockdown. These are all big things for Republicans and things they will not get Gavin Newsom.

I also have to say that the GOP does have an opening with the LGBT community. At best the Democrats have been treating the LGBT community as a captive audience and there is no agreement in the community about continuing to support the Democrats. As hard as it may be to believe there has been a major pushback from the LGB community against woke politics and Jenner could be the pathway to peel off some of the T community.

But there is an argument that we should not be supporting Jenner. When Jenner came out as transgender it did a lot to normalize transgenderism to the general public. The left will argue that this was a good thing but I think it may have done a lot of damage. I'm not for discrimination against anyone but there is a lot of damage that can be done by convincing people they are the wrong gender. 

There are a lot of parts of the transgender community that I am deeply uncomfortable with. For one thing "bottom surgery" seems like one of those things that will be looked at with horror in the future, much like lobotomies are today. I'm also deeply concerned about puberty blockers. From what I understand the pills do massive damage to children and can even kill them.

But the worst part of the transgender community is their behavior. There are of course a large number of them that just try to live their lives and I have no problem with them. But the bad actors are among the absolute worst people in the country right now. It's a group full of pedophiles, harassers, sexists and just generally terrible people. Just look up Jonathan/Jessica Yaniv as a good example of how horrible these people can be. I don't see Jenner supporting this but I also don't see her speaking out about it. If she did I would be a lot more comfortable with her.

Still, I think what the Republicans in California need to ask themselves what is more important to them. Getting rid of Gavin Newsom or pushing back against trans-culture? It is a tough choice and I'm glad that I'm not in a position to face it. The best solution would be for another viable candidate to show up but that doesn't seem like it is going to happen. 

Personally I probably would vote for Jenner. Newsom is terrible but getting a new governor is probably worth any other concerns. And I hope that having Jenner as a governor will actually give trans-people a better role model than the current ones. But I also do hope that a more normal viable GOP candidate comes out of the woodwork.

Australia's military is concerned about a potential war with China.

 

The Australian Flag. The Hill/Getty.

Australia's military is concerned about a potential war with China, cording to a leaked briefing by an Australian general. The Hill. Major General Adam Findlay, now retired, told a group of Australian special forces last year that China was already involved in "grey zone" warfare against the country including cyber attacks and a misinformation campaign. He also said that the situation had a high likely hood of spiraling into an all out war. The report comes during high tensions in the region with China looking at trying to take back Taiwan. Australia is investing in their military in response.

My Comment:

I agree with this former general, the chances of war breaking out in the South China sea is getting larger. China has been throwing their weight around now for quite some time and they have made it very clear that they want to take back Taiwan.

This is a major threat for Australia as they understand that if Taiwan falls then they could be next. China needs a lot of the things that Australia has and I could see them invading several decades in the future if they manage to take over the rest of their targets in the South China Sea. They have resources and most importantly, space for colonists. 

I am guessing that any war over Taiwan will likely involve Australia. They have a major reason to defend Taiwan as they know they are next if something happens. They have major military interests in defending the island nation and they will want to help.

Australia can contribute quite a bit to any defense of Taiwan. They could deploy ground troops there as they have a lot of very good soldiers, some of whom were battle tested in Afghanistan. They also have a decent navy and air force with modern weapons mostly supplied by the United States. 

Remember, I am not sure that China could take over Taiwan even if the country got no help from foreign governments. An amphibious landing is one of the more difficult things to do and it's not like Taiwan doesn't have their own impressive military force. And even if China does manage to gain a foothold they would have to endure some major urban fighting that would probably bleed their military dry. 

If other countries jump into the fight for Taiwan? I think China can't win then. Even if it was some of China's smaller regional enemies, it might be just enough to stop them. And if the United States helps? They are really screwed then, even though they could inflict a lot of damage before they failed. 

The problem is that any conflict with China could devolve into a nuclear conflict. Nobody would actually want that but things could spiral out of control. China would lose a nuclear exchange as well, but nobody really does win an nuclear war. 

Even a conventional conflict would be devastating to the world economy. China's trade with the rest of the world would stop, cutting off many critical goods and services. Even if China were to win the war it's very possible they could destroy their economy, along with the economies of the trade partners they need. 

Still, war is possible to avoid. The only reason China wants Taiwan is for national pride and to save face. That's a very dumb reason to go to war and I hope that cooler heads prevail. But if they don't China should not expect an easy time of it...