Why is President Trump in Nevada?

 

President Donald Trump

As you probably know, President Trump has had several events in Nevada this weekend. Indeed, he's played to huge crowds and has been popular in the state. I am sure that President Trump could go pretty much anywhere and get huge crowds, so the question is why is President Trump spending time in the state?

Nevada is widely seen as a safe blue state for the Democrats. Hillary Clinton won the state 48% to 45%. The polling hasn't been frequent in the state but Biden has a similar lead over President Trump there. On the surface it makes little sense for President Trump to campaign there. 

So why is President Trump doing it? It's possible that Nevada is in play. President Trump does appear to be doing better among Hispanics and Nevada has a large population there. It's possible that the difference could be made up if President Trump gets a larger number of Hispanics. If so, it could make sense to campaign there. 

It's also possible that the polling is way off and President Trump's internal polls show that he can make a play for the state. I suspect that might be the case as the polling is pretty laughable at this point nationwide. The polling companies are still massively oversampling Democrats and under sampling Republicans and independents. Without further knowledge I can't really say for sure. 

It could also just mean that President Trump is very confident that he is going to win. A win in Nevada might not be necessary but it could help rub in his victory to the Democrats face. I don't know how much evidence there is for this as far as I am aware victory is likely, but not certain. 

For me personally? I don't think that Nevada is a likely swing state. They have done some major shenanigans with their mail-in ballots and I am guessing that even if President Trump has made up ground there, it's going to be erased by widespread voter fraud. No matter how many votes President Trump gets in the state they will find late ballots to make up the difference. 

Which could be another reason why President Trump is campaigning in the state. If people feel the state is in play, Trump campaigning there sends that message, they might be less likely to believe voter fraud if Biden wins the state by ten points or something. 

Still, I think there are better targets for President Trump. Minnesota is the easiest choice as the riots there likely moved a lot of independents and Democrats away from the party. Hillary Clinton barely won the state by less then a percentage point. It seems like an easy state to pick up, but President Trump isn't campaigning much there at this point. 

President Trump probably should focus on the Midwest. States like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio will be needed to win and it would be nice to shore up those states. And Minnesota isn't the only swing state in play. New Hampshire might be in play as well. If I was in his shoes I would be focusing on those states rather then a longshot like Nevada. But maybe President Trump knows something we don't?