President Trump speaks in North Carolina. The Hill/Getty.
President Donald Trump claimed today in North Carolina that he was sailing to an easy reelection before the Coronavirus pandemic hit. The Hill. President Trump speculated that China may have released the virus on purpose, though he did not confirm the idea. Trump touted the economy and how well it was doing before the virus hit and said that the country was coming together as well. Trump supported vaccine development and criticized Democrats for their role in the virus response.
Trump's speech can be seen below.
My Comment:
President Trump is correct here. He was sailing to an easy reelection before the virus hit. Not only was the economy doing very well, he had defeated the last major challenge to his rule, the Democrats impeachment attempt. That attempt failed miserably and it was the last real thing that the Democrats had in there basket. They had nothing left.
And then the virus hit. Though I tend to think that President handled the outbreak about as well as anyone else, it's clear that it had a major impact. He deserves credit for banning travel from China and Europe a lot sooner then the Democrats would have but it's not like his response was perfect. Allowing the Democrat governors to ship patients to nursing homes was a mistake as well.
The virus also had a major impact on the economy, made worse by the Democrats insistence to keep states closed well after it was clear it wasn't necessary anymore. Given that the economy was one of the strongest reasons to vote for President Trump it's hard to see this as enemy action. Though the economy is recovering a lot of people are still out of work.
However, I do think that the outbreak helped President Trump in a way as well. I consider it to be a major factor as to why the riots were so bad this time around. I was expecting riots regardless but not until the Democratic National Convention, which ironically enough, was entirely peaceful for being de facto canceled.
Having people locked up for weeks, no school, and millions of people out of work were a recipe for disorder. But the rallying point for the violence was the Democratic platform. These rioters were supposedly trying to get police reform, which the Democrats based their campaign on. This gave President Trump the opportunity to frame himself as the law and order candidate, giving his campaign a shot in the arm.
That being said, it's hard to argue that President Trump wouldn't be in a better position if it hadn't been for the outbreak. It caused a massive amount of economic damage and made it hard for people to focus on anything other than politics. I am guessing that President Trump would be ahead in the polls, even as biased as they are, if it hadn't been for the virus.
As for Trump's words on China I do think there is an argument to be made that China is responsible for the virus. I don't think they released it on purpose but I do think that they, at the very least, allowed the virus to spread. All they had to do was stop travel to foreign countries and they didn't do it. And that's assuming the virus wasn't an accidental lab release, which hasn't been proven but it is what I think happened.
So, will President Trump win? I think he probably will. If it hadn't been for the Coronavirus it might have been a landslide but I think that President Trump will still win. My guess is that he will probably improve his electoral vote count but will likely still lose the popular vote. He will probably add Minnesota and New Hampshire to his list of states he wins and I doubt he actually loses any of the states he won in 2016.
Of course a lot can happen between now and November. The virus itself is an example of a black swan event that can change everything. I don't think the Democrats have anything else up their sleeves, the suckers hoax is obviously a big sign of that. They never would have tried such a stupid hoax if they had anything better. But there is always the chance that something really stupid happening...
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