Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has died from pancreatic cancer, leaving a vacancy on the court. Reuters. The 87 year old had been on the court since 1993 and led the court's liberal wing. Her death means that the 5-4 conservative majority will move to 6-3 after President Trump nominates a replacement and the senate confirms him or her. The effort to replace Ginsburg will likely lead to a massive fight with the Democrats. If the effort succeeds it will be the third justice that President Trump has replaced.
My Comment:
Huge news today and news with massive implications. The fight to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg will make the Kavanaugh hearings, where he was falsely accused of being a sexual predator, look like nothing. It will be a major victory for President Trump and cap off his first term with a massive win.
I have never been a fan of a Ruth Bader Ginsburg. I do have some respect for her. Despite being critically ill she did her best to stay on in order to preserve her seat on the Supreme Court. She was ill for a long time with many different kinds of cancer but she fought as hard as she could. There is something to be said for that.
She did make a critical error though. She could have retired during President Obama's turn and her seat would have been safe. Given her health issues it would have been the safe move to make but she made the same assumption the media made in 2016. That Hillary Clinton would have been the President. We all know how that worked out and I am guessing that Ginsburg regretted that decision in the end.
I don't buy the argument that the Republicans should wait until the election is over with to replace Ginsburg. It just seems like special pleading on the Democrats part. Sure, the Republicans didn't take up Merrick Garland in the lead up to 2016, but that was because he was totally unacceptable to the Republicans and wouldn't not have ever been confirmed with the GOP in control of the Senate. If the Democrats wanted to confirm him they should have won the senate in 2014. And if they wanted to replace Ginsburg they should have won the Senate in 2018. Since they didn't do either of those things they have no right to complain. And if the situation was reversed? I have no doubt that the Democrats would push their guy through.
Who will replace Ginsburg? I am not sure. The White House released an updated list of candidates and the replacement will be drawn from that list. It's likely that the candidate will be a woman and one of the candidates, Senator Ted Cruz, has already said that he won't accept if nominated. It's unclear which candidate will be picked and I don't really want to speculate too much on who it will be. Nominating a woman is probably the right choice as it will make the Democrats efforts to prevent it much harder as attacks on a woman will be viewed as sexist. In theory at least, we will see how it works out in practice.
The death of Ginsburg significantly raises the stakes of the 2020 election. The Democrats are going to be furious and will understand that they will be locked out of the Supreme Court for a generation. It would also mean that the Supreme Court would actually be conservative. I know technically there is a 5-4 majority. but Chief Justice Roberts has not been reliable at all. He seems more concerned about not pissing off the Democrats than making the rulings he was put on the court to make. He's the reason we haven't repealed the draconian gun laws that are clearly unconstitutional.
He may have a point though as the big fear is that the Democrats will punish the court the next time they take the White House and Senate. That will probably not be in 2020, but in the future it's very possible that the Democrats will come up with a court packing scheme to take away whatever conservative majority there is on the court. Doing so would likely lead to civil war but it seems clear that the Democrats no longer care.
However, it's no sure thing that the Democrats will take anything in 2020 or even in 2024. The GOP is going to be even more motivated to vote now. I know a lot of Republicans who are iffy on President Trump's personality but even they will have to admit that he is getting results on the courts. And it's not just the Supreme Court either, it's the appeals and other federal courts as well, to the point where the 9th district, famous for terrible rulings, has now flipped conservatives. If the GOP wants to preserve those accomplishments they have little choice but to vote for President Trump.
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