As you are most certainly aware the 1st presidential debate happened last night. I watched and live tweeted the entire thing. Or at least attempted to, I had technical issues with all three sites I was using to post, Twitter, Gab and Parler. That means a lot of what I wanted to say during the debate I was unable to do so because I couldn't get the websites to reliably post.
Having watched the debate I have to say it was a doozy. It was probably the most aggressive and angry debate I have ever seen and it mostly consisted of the three men present, Donald Trump, Joe Biden and moderator Chris Wallace yelling at each other. The media class was furious and more then a few people described the debate as an absolute mess. I don't know if I would call it the "worst" debate I've seen, but I do think it was one of the least informative.
That being said, I think that the blame lies on Chris Wallace. He failed utterly at controlling this debate and, even worse, showed almost complete bias against President Trump. Yes, President Trump was interrupting Joe Biden, but Biden did the same thing and Wallace interrupted Trump just as much. When it was clear that things were out of control Wallace just whined about it and was not effective in allowing candidates to speak their 2 minutes without interruption.
That's not how you moderate a debate. You either let the candidates go or you reign them in. Wallace tried to split the middle and it was a disaster. This entire election cycle has had a problem with people talking over each other, making the debate harder to follow, but when the moderator jumps in too? It's even worse! Changes might be necessary for the next debates, but let's not pretend that Wallace didn't totally fail as a moderator. In the next debates they should either ditch moderators entirely or they should actually shut down candidates if they talk out of turn (assuming that we could trust them to do it fairly which they won't).
President Trump was extremely aggressive in this debate in a way I don't think we have seen before. He was rough during the 2016 primary debates and the debates against Hillary Clinton but compared to this debate those debates were child's play. Trump pressured Joe Biden all night and it's clear that he really rattled both Biden and Chris Wallace. Indeed, Wallace's voice cracked a couple of times and I thought he was near tears.
But it's also important to note that Joe Biden too was extremely aggressive and rude. He even declined to childish name calling and whining when Trump was attacking him. Biden called Trump every name in the book, from "clown" to "racist" to "the worst President America ever had". It's very clear that Trump got to him and that he lost his cool.
The good news for Biden is that the expectations of him were so low that even his mediocre debate performance was a victory for him. Compared to his performances in the primary debates and even way back into the 2012 VP debate with Paul Ryan, Biden did not do well. Indeed, Hillary Clinton did much better then Biden during her first debate with Donald Trump then Biden did in this one.
Biden was confused, stumbling on his words and had several incidents where he couldn't come up with an answer fast enough and had to get bailed out by Chris Wallace (or by President Trump interrupting him). By the last 30 minutes of the debate I could tell that he was starting to fade and fade badly. It's very clear that Biden isn't the same man as he once was and that he has lost a major step when it comes to his mental state. He's senile and it's pretty obvious.
That being said, all Biden had to do was not collapse entirely or drop a major gaffe and I think that he did so. The concerns about Biden being totally senile are going to be lessoned after this debate. I don't think he did a good job at all, but I do think that he at least proved that he can get through a 90 minute debate without passing out or peeing his pants. People were literally expecting him to do something like that and I think the debate shows that whatever Biden's problems are mentally he's at least still somewhat there.
As for President Trump, I think he made some mistakes in this debate. His aggressive style clearly rattled Joe Biden, but I thought he should have backed off during the 2nd half of the debate. Had he done so Biden probably would have put his foot in his mouth at some point but Trump was so aggressive with his interruptions that he didn't give Biden a chance to hang himself. "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake" is famous for a reason but Trump did so last night.
He also made some baffling choices in the race section. Though the media is blowing out of proportion his response when Chris Wallace asked him to denounce White Nationalists, he clearly did, he could have handled it better. Instead of saying "sure, name the group" he should have said something like "I totally disavow them, and I'm disgusted you would even ask that". He has done this in the past but I'm not sure why he didn't come out more forcibly then he did. Not doing so is obviously backfiring on him as the media is having a field day with it, even though they are cutting out the fact that he obviously did disavow them.
I also kind of think that Wallace and Biden trapped Trump with the Proud Boys remark. As a reminder, the Proud Boys are not White Supremacists, their current leader is a Cuban-American with very dark skin. They are a right wing group with some pretty crazy beliefs and are only notable for beating up Antifa. Trump told them to stand back and stand by, which the media is lying about, saying he didn't denounce them. They cut out what he said before, where he did condemn white supremacists, which is what I think Wallace and Biden were planning all along. Had he been a bit more forceful on denouncing the Proud Boys (which I think is probably justified since despite not being White Supremacists, they are violent assholes) he wouldn't be getting attacked in the media quite so much.
I also think that Trump left some things hang in the air that he absolutely should not have done. When accused of the old, debunked, "fine people hoax" he didn't fight back even though it was the worst lie that was told that night. He also made a mistake in letting the debate focus on his taxes instead of dismissing the story immediately.
Biden too made some pretty big mistakes. The one lie that I know that President Trump made, that he called black people superpredators, was left unchallenged. Biden has said some very questionable and terrible things about black people, but that's not his quote, it's Hillary Clinton's. But since Biden didn't push back on that, it's going to be something he's known for now as well. Either Biden didn't want to throw Clinton under the bus or he felt guilty about the other racial things he has said and wanted to move on. Either way, for a guy that spent the entire night saying Trump was lying about everything he didn't call out the actual lie.
Joe Biden also likely alienated a lot of his left wing voters last night. He was bullied into denouncing a lot of things the far left likes. He praised cops, he called for law and order and he denounced the Green New Deal, which his running mate Kamala Harris co-sponsored in the Senate. How much damage this will do is unknown, as the far-left already hated Biden and nobody in that part of the party was going to vote for Biden, just against Trump, but it still might convince a few of the far-left to stay home.
The debate itself was almost devoid of content in terms of actual issues. The personal attacks were so out of control that nobody learned much in the way of details over the candidates plans. It was mostly a rehashing of the various scandals, real and imagined, that both candidates have had over the years.
Who do I think won? I think it has to be President Trump. I think there was a method to his madness here. On the surface he came off like a total asshole. However, that's already baked into the cake with President Trump, so I doubt it hurt him too much. A few squishy "muh decorum" types might be turned off by him, but his fans probably loved seeing him tearing into Joe Biden. Indeed, though I thought the debate was a disaster it was at least fun watching Biden and Wallace become so exasperated.
But I think he did a ton of damage to Joe Biden last night. He may have damaged himself a bit in the process but I think his biggest problem was that he was seen as a jerk while Joe Biden was seen as a nice guy. I don't think anyone sees Biden as a nice guy after last night. He stooped to Trump's level and the one common thought I have heard from undecideds and independents after the debate is "these guys are both idiots, how can I vote for either?" Trump neutralized the threat of people who want to vote for a more normal, less cantankerous man for President as those people will likely now stay home or at least vote 3rd party.
And I think focusing on Biden's scandals probably helped as well. Everyone is familiar with Trump's issues (and often how debunked they are) but how many people knew that Democrats were thinking about stacking the Supreme Court? How many people knew that Biden's son was knee deep in corruption? How many are questioning why did Joe Biden call Antifa, the group that has been rioting, looting and burning their way across the United States, an "ideology, not a group"? These are things that I don't think the average low-information voter had any idea about before now.
Biden is also not going to win any voters with the slimy and evasive way he answered all of his questions. He absolutely refused to say if he would stack the court or not, which makes him look dishonest. And his answers for any of this scandals? "That's debunked" without actually saying why something is supposedly debunked. Such a weak defense is no defense at all, and given how serious the accusations were against Hunter Biden, he should have had something better planned.
That being said, if it was a win for President Trump, it was an ugly one. He could have handled a lot of it better then he actually did. I also think that the anger he had here was a lot more real. This wasn't the more playful and funny candidate we had in 2016. I think he is right to be pissed off considering what the Democrats and the Deep State has done to him, but if I had any advice for Trump in his remaining debates it would be this. Bring the joy and humor back. 2016 Trump was hilarious and silly, and that's not what we saw last night. He's obviously still capable of this since I've seen his recent rallies, but he didn't make that push last night and I think it was a mistake. I didn't laugh once during the debate last night and that's a huge issue for a candidate that is known for his humor.
And if I had advice for Biden, it would be this. The way to beat President Trump is to not try to out Trump him. Had Biden not been a snarky asshole all night he would have gotten more sympathy. Had he actually tried to sell his plans he might have actually made a little progress, but he didn't.
Will the debate have an effect on the election? Maybe. We really didn't learn anything new last night and historically the 1st debate is the least meaningful. After all, Mitt Romney destroyed Barack Obama in their first debate and Clinton either tied or beat Trump in the first debate in 2016. Romney lost in 2012 and Clinton did in 2016, so even if this was a rough debate for President Trump it doesn't mean that he will lose.
If it has any effect at all though I think it will be on Joe Biden. Though the media is declaring him the winner, they aren't doing it with confidence. I think they are rattled because Biden was so clearly rattled. He's not going to be seen as the senile nice old man that he was prior to the debate, he's going to be seen as left wing Trump, but without Trump's rabid fan base. The election still has a long way to go but I do think that Biden is basically finished now.
As for me I am now looking forward to what should be the most important VP debate in modern history, the debate between Mike Pence and Kamala Harris. That debate will happen a week from today and I plan to live tweet it as well. I expect a massively different debate considering Mike Pence is Trump's foil and Harris is so completely unlikable. Pence will likely wipe the floor with Harris who did not do well in the primary debates. It should be a good time and I am looking forward to it.
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