US Navy RQ-4 Global Hawk shot down by Iran.

A file photo of a Air Force RQ-4 Global Hawk. US Air Force via Wikipedia. 

A US Navy RQ-4 Global Hawk was shot down by Iran, contributing to the high tensions between the country and the United States. Fox News. The drone was shot down by a surface to air missile over the Strait of Hormuz. The United States claims it was over international waters while Iran says it was over their territory. Iran also attempted to shoot down a second drone but failed to do so. President Trump condemned the attack but left open the possibility that Iran had made a mistake. The incident follows attacks on two oil tankers and many attacks on Saudi Arabia from Iran's Houthi rebel allies in Yemen. 

My Comment:

Thankfully this was just a drone. A very expensive and classified drone but a drone nonetheless. No humans were hurt in this incident and all that was lost was the drone and the missile fired at it. It's fairly amazing that with all the escalations and attacks from Iran recently there haven't been any deaths (not counting their proxies in Syria and Yemen). 

And make no mistake, this is a huge escalation. Though shooting down a drone is not the same as shooting down a manned aircraft it is a huge middle finger to the United States. Having a drone shot down like this may draw an armed response. 

I generally believe that this drone wasn't flying in Iranian airspace. Our drones wouldn't need to cross over and we weren't looking to provoke fire from them. Iran is spoiling for a fight and shooting down a drone seems like a deliberate act. Their claims that it was violating their airspace make little sense. 

That being said, it's also clear that President Trump doesn't want war. He campaigned against wars in the Middle East and has done a good job using diplomacy and a lighter touch that Bush and Obama did. A full scale invasion of Iran would torpedo his 2020 chances (one of the few things that would) and he personally thinks that a fight would be stupid. While the tanker attack was occurring President Trump had his ally, Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe, was in Iran trying to deliver a message of peace. That attack and this one shows that Iran isn't really interested in it. 

That explains the comments Trump made about Iran making a mistake. I don't think he believes for a moment that this wasn't a planned attack from Iran. But he's giving them an out. If the Iranians wanted to they could blame a local commander for the incident and then come back to the negotiating table. It's not likely to work, but it is certainly worth a try. 

President Trump also seems to be in disagreement with the war hawks in the administration. John Bolton is pushing for war and I bet that Mike Pence is as well. Trump may or may not listen to them, but my gut goes with no. But I think something is likely to happen. There just isn't anyway for America to ignore these kinds of attacks. 

However, any conflict with Iran isn't likely to be a full scale invasion. I can't see President Trump ordering that but even if he did, we aren't anywhere near strong enough in the region to take on Iran. If we had a huge invasion force deployed to the Middle East, even bigger than the one used against Iraq, then it might be likely, but we aren't anywhere near that right now. 

What is more likely is a series of limited air strikes targeting military targets, similar to what happened in Syria. Those strikes were very limited and more of a bloody nose than anything. It wasn't a full scale war with Syria and I doubt it will be with Iran. But with this latest provocation it looks even more likely that something will happen between Iran and America...