Two oil tankers attacked in the Gulf of Oman.

The Front Altair in a file photo. Reuters.

Two oil tankers have been attacked by unknown parties in the Gulf of Oman. Reuters. One of the ships, the Norwegian flagged Front Altair, with a cargo of petrochemical feedstock, hit a magnetic mine, causing the ship to burn. The other was a Japanese flagged tanker had to be abandoned after a suspected torpedo hit. The attack immediately caused a major spike in oil prices as 30% of the world's oil travels through the Straits of Hormuz. The attacks occurred after two attacks in May that targeted oil tankers. Iran is a likely suspect as tensions are high between the country and the United States. The most recent attack comes as Prime Minster Shinzo Abe is in Tehran bringing a message from President Donald Trump in an attempt to ratchet down tensions. Iran says the attack is "suspicious" and called for international dialogue. 

My Comment:

A fairly major breaking news story this morning and one that has fairly huge political and economic implications. If the report of a torpedo hitting one of the ships is true that is a major escalation in a conflict that looks like it could erupt into actual war or conflict. 

Attacking international shipping is a huge deal and one that tends to not go unanswered. By attacking oil shipments specifically you are pointing a dagger at the throat of international commerce. Already oil prices have spiked significantly just due to one attack. If these attacks continue to economic damage could be severe. That's the kind of thing that almost always draws a response as you can't mess with a countries lively hood in such a way. 

Thankfully, the United States has achieved energy independence and is no longer dependent on foreign oil. But Europe and Asia need oil from the Gulf in order to survive. While America would be fine if the Straits of Hormuz were closed due to a conflict, it would be very bad economically for the rest of the world. And even with our energy independence, America would be hit hard by the global recession any conflict in the Gulf of Oman could cause. 

If the reports of a torpedo attack are true, it narrows the list of suspects significantly. The previous attacks (and apparently the attack on the Norwegian ship) were made by attaching limpet mines to the hulls of the vessels, which anyone with frogmen or UDT training, including non-state actors. Those attacks could have been terror attacks until this new development. It would be unlikely, but it is still possible that it wasn't a state acting in those attacks.

Torpedoes are something else and it really takes a state actor to use them. Though some terror groups have major hardware, I'm not aware of any groups have both have torpedoes and the means to launch them. It's possible that a state provided a group, like the Houthi rebels in Yemen, but that's pretty much the same as doing the attack yourself. 

Iran is the most likely suspect in these attacks. They have the means, motive and opportunity to do so. They also have a large fleet of torpedo boats that are well suited for this kind of operation. They are furious with President Trump and the Gulf States for various reasons and tensions are extremely high. 

If it is Iran it's a very clear message that they want conflict. To attack international shipping while a state leader is visiting the country delivering a message of peace is a totally unfriendly message. It is as close to a middle finger a country can give. It's a clear rejection of any peace offer or negotiation on sanctions and nuclear weapons. 

However, given how suicidal such an action would be it's worth mentioning that it could be a false flag. I am sure that Iran will be pushing that theory soon, but it's not like Iran has a shortage of enemies in the region. I sincerely doubt it though as the only thing stupider than attacking international commerce is doing it and then sloppily blaming it on your enemy. 

Regardless of who is responsible for this attack, I expect some kind of response. The various fleets in the region will have to be deployed to protect shipping from whoever is committing these attacks. There are defenses against torpedo attacks and divers using limpet mines but they require a military presence. 

I expect that the Gulf of Oman will be one of the world's biggest tinder boxes very soon. A major military deployment could result in any number of stupid things happening. Tensions will be high and both sides may feel the need to fly their flags and deploy their weapons. That can cause any number of mistakes or just dumb actions that can quickly spiral a standoff into a shooting war. 

All that being said, I don't expect an actual "regime change" type of war to happen anytime soon. Despite Iran's recent behavior, nobody in the United States, other than a few irrelevant neocons, wants war with Iran. I believe that includes President Trump as well. Such a war would be the Iraq War all over again, we would win but at a heavy cost and with tragic repercussions all around. Let us hope that cooler heads prevail and this situation does not get any worse. And if the situation does get worse, let it be a limited, small scale conflict with no ground forces deployed.