Possible deal between US and Taliban to withdraw US troops?

Taliban soldiers. New York Times/Reuters.

The United States and the Taliban may have come to an agreement that would withdraw US forces from Afghanistan in exchange for the Taliban not allowing Afghanistan to become a haven for ISIS and al-Qaeda. New York Times. It is unclear if the deal is final as negotiations are ongoing but named officials have said they believe an official announcement is coming. Details of a timetable of withdrawal or how the Taliban would guarantee that ISIS or al-Qaeda would be stopped. The Afghan government has not condemned the deal but say that any long term peace deal should go through them. One possible stumbling point is that a US condition of the deal would be a cease fire between the Taliban and Afghan governments. 

Just completed #Pakistan leg of my current trip in the region to advance the peace process. Good meetings. I appreciate their hospitality & resolve to push for Afghan peace. We’re heading in the right direction with more steps by Pakistan coming that will lead to concrete results

— U.S. Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad (@US4AfghanPeace) January 20, 2019

My Comment:
If true this is very good news. I do have to say that it is the New York Times but for once they actually had named sources that are saying that the negotiations are going well. They used anonymous sources as well, but only as further confirmation of the good news. That makes me think that there is actually something to this. 

America has been at war in Afghanistan almost 18 years. Though a military solution is probably possible the American people would not accept what we would have to do to actually defeat the Taliban. It would take hundreds of thousands of troops, much looser rules of engagement and no regard to military and civilian casualties. Even if President Trump was interested in that he would pay a massive political price among the people that voted for him and would anger US allies and the UN.

Without a military solution there are essentially two options. We can either negotiate or just keep the status quo. Nobody wants the status quo as it is expensive in both money and lives. Keeping troops in Afghanistan indefinitely is pointless if they can't win the war and it has become increasingly clear that they cannot with the resources they have. Jim Mattis tried and even a legendary Marine like him failed.

Of course there is another option which is just letting the Taliban take over everything. This would be a betrayal of our Afghan allies who can't stand against the Taliban even with our help. Without us they would lose the war. They are already taking unsustainable casualties and risk losing the entire country. Only US arms, airstrikes and training have kept them afloat this time.

A political solution is probably best for everyone. A formal peace deal would end the war. The Afghan government gets to survive in some fashion which isn't a guarantee at this point. The Taliban gets official control over the land they have. And the US government gets a guarantee that al-Qaeda and ISIS don't take over the country.

If we have any interest in Afghanistan at all it is to prevent it from becoming a base for terror groups. Though the Taliban qualifies they are not international terrorists and are not a threat to the United States. ISIS and al-Qaeda are and though both groups have been dramatically reduced if we can work out an arrangement we can ensure they they don't come back. Remember, the whole reason we went into Afghanistan in the first place was because of 9/11. The Taliban hosted them, yes, but once al-Qaeda was defeated we had little reason to stay.

There are a million and one things that could happen before the deal is reached. That being said withdrawing from Afghanistan would be a major victory for the Trump administration and something that everyone should hope it comes to pass. I sincerely hope that these peace talks are successful.