United States recognizes opposition leader as interim president of Venezuela, Venezuela cuts off diplomatic ties

Nicolas Maduro. Venezuelan government photo. 

The United States has recognized opposition leader Juan Guaido as the interim president of Venezuela with the country cutting off diplomatic relations as a result. Washington Post. President Trump and Vice President Pence have said all options are on the table, including military intervention, if Maduro attacks US diplomats in the country. Hundreds of thousands of civilians have protested against Maduro. Maduro won an election last year, but the election was widely regarded as fraudulent. Maduro's socialist rule has devastated Venezuela's economy and has led to a major South American refugee crisis. 

My Comment:

I am not sure how much longer Maduro will remain in power in Venezuela. There are a few factors that could help him though. The most important one is that he still has support of the military. If he didn't have it he would have likely been removed from power and perhaps even killed. He also can tell his people that his countries problems are due to America. It's a lie but the perception will be there because of America's aggressive foreign policy. 

Maduro also probably realizes that President Trump isn't interested in a military conflict with him. Though there has been some saber rattling, military action is not likely at all. Trump isn't a neocon and he isn't going to deploy troops to Venezuela for purposes of regime change. That gives Maduro quite a bit of leeway. 

Of course a military conflict is possible. If Maduro does something really stupid, like taking US diplomats hostage or even attacking them physically, he could provoke a conflict. Or if he finally confirms the long rumored conflict between his country and Guyana and actually attacks them in order to save his economy then that too could lead to war. Otherwise, invasion is extremely unlikely. 

That being said, Maduro has some major problems. The most obvious is that his people are turning on him. Hundreds of thousands of people are protesting them even though doing so is a crime. The people have nothing to lose and are willing to risk jail to counter him.

And there isn't much Maduro can do to quell the protests. The people are against him so concessions don't matter much. And any major crackdown could lead to sanctions and a huge international backlash. If, for example, he imprisoned Jaun Guaido, it would backfire on him immensely. 

Maduro is also surrounded by enemies and has earned the ire of the most powerful country on earth. Their neighbor Brazil has elected Jair Bolsonaro, a dedicated anti-communist who has said that Venezuela needs a new government. And the rest of the governments in the area want him gone as well, if for no other reason than the massive refugee crisis he created due to his socialist policies. 

As for me, I would be very happy to see Maduro go. He, along with Hugo Chavez, squandered his countries resources with their socialist programs. Venezuela has among the world's largest oil reserves but instead of reinvesting into the country the two leaders wasted it on social programs that created no value. It will be a good day when Maduro is finally gone.