Emmanuel Macron speaks. Reuters.
Emmanuel Macron has written a 2300 word letter to try and quell the Gilets Jaunes/Yellow Jacket movement that is protesting his rule. Reuters. The letter comes after nine weeks of continues protests that have crippled the French government and shaken the economy. Macron has offered reforms but refuses to change his core economic message and has not backed down on high taxes for the lower classes and tax cuts for the rich. In the letter, Macron asked several questions to the French people and encouraged them to reach out. Here are some of the questions:
- What kind of public spending savings do you think we should make a priority?
- Are there too many administrative layers?
- Should we use referendums more often and who should be able to trigger them?
After public feedback, Macron will give his own conclusions. However it is seen as unlikely that Macron will leave his policies up to referendum.
The full text of Macron's letter can be found here.
My Comment:
Sounds like too little too late for me. If Macron had done this immediately after the Gilets Jaunes showed up and started protesting it might have done something, but now? I don't think anyone will seriously listen to Macron.
Originally the movement was about a gas tax but at this point the movement has gone far beyond just that. It is now more of a rejection of globalism in general. Plus they are furious with Macron himself and his utterly tone deaf reaction to this crisis.
The Gilets Jaunes remain popular and Macron's approval rating is in the toilet. People no longer believe he has the right to rule and want him gone and I don't think there is anything that he can do to regain the trust of the French people. Even if it were possible to give the Gilets Jaunes protesters everything that they want, which doesn't seem possible since there is no agreement even among the protesters as to what they want, I doubt that they would want him to remain in power.
Macron is rapidly running out of options. The way I can see it, he has four options. The first is the give the French people what they want and get rid of the high taxes and pro-rich policies that he has put into place. It's an unlikely solution because Macron's pride is getting in his way and it may be too late. If he did it it might work but it is likely too late and even if he gives up everything people will still want him gone.
The second option is to do nothing. Macron could just hope that eventually the storm would pass but that is what he has been doing and it hasn't worked at all. The anger here is deep and ignoring it is a very dangerous game. Doing so could lead to much worse than just protests and there is a chance that revolution is even in the cards if nothing is done.
Third, Macron could crack down on the protesters. Instead of having riot police just keep they peace he could use mass arrests, crackdowns and banning gathering. What little leaders the movement has could be arrested and he could censor the internet making it much harder to organize.
Doing so would be a massively bad idea. There is a chance that it would work but much more likely would be open rebellion and/or civil war. Remember, most of the wars in this decade started when governments cracked down on protesters. Most of the leaders who did so were removed from power and even killed. And the only one that remains, Bashar al-Assad, rules a ruined country that will take generations to recover.
Finally, Macron could just resign. It's clear he doesn't have the kind of support he needs to rule and will never be able to recover. Indeed, his life may even be in danger. Resigning now is probably the only way for him to save any face at all and would ensure that he would be able to enjoy retirement safely. Again, Macron's pride is likely to ensure that this doesn't happen.
Given that Macron is fairly tone deaf and doesn't seem to do understand how bad his position is, I don't have a whole lot of hope for a peaceful resolution. The anger of the Gilets Jaunes is not going to go away and a letter is not going to change anything...
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