Tuesday, August 28, 2018

China is reportedly building a military training base in Afghanistan.

Chinese troops training in Djibouti. South China Morning Post. 

China is reportedly building a military training base in Afghanistan to assist the Afghan government in their wars against the Taliban and ISIS. SCMP. Once the base is complete China is expected to send a battalion of combat troops, roughly 500, to the site. The base will be located in the Wakhan corridor which is a strip of land owned by Afghanistan between Pakistan, China and Tajikistan. The Wakhan corridor borders China's Xinjiang area, which is dominated by Muslims. China has cracked down on Muslims due to several attacks in the region and they fear that the rebels in the region, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, could end up joining the Taliban. China also has economic interests in Afghanistan as the country is rich in minerals and straddles a critical trade route. 

My Comment:
This story is getting ignored in western media but that's nothing new. The South China Morning Post, Hong Kong's paper of record is one of the only outlets covering this crucial story. Good on them for covering a critical story. 

It seems very clear that China is intent on joining the war in Afghanistan. Afghanistan could certainly use the help. They are losing the war against the Taliban and if it wasn't for ISIS fighting both sides and the large US intervention they would have already lost the war. Though the deployment of 500 troops on a training mission won't change the outcome of the war it will be welcome. Afghanistan is in no position to refuse any help they may receive, even though I am sure that this assistance comes with strings attached. 

China has a lot of different reasons to do this. The most obvious is their security concerns. The Xinjiang area, with the Uygur Muslims, has been a thorn in their sides for quite some time now. The Muslims in that region are opposed to the communist regime and have conducted several high profile terror attacks and regularly practice civil disorder in a country that has zero tolerance for it. 

China has a real fear that the Taliban or ISIS could join forces with the Uygur groups in China and could provide them with weapons and training. The attacks in China have largely been low scale and primitive but if these people were to get weapons and explosives, the situation could easily descend into open rebellion. That's unlikely to happen as long as the Taliban and ISIS are fighting the Afghan government but if they were to win it would probably happen very quickly. 

China also has some obvious economic interests in Afghanistan as well. The country has one of the largest reserves of minerals in the world and if they were functional in any way they would be an economic powerhouse. China obviously wants access to those minerals and you can see the same pattern that has occurred in Africa potentially reoccurring in Afghanistan. 

Trade is also a major factor here. China is attempting to build up a new overland "silk road" and their overland trade route is threatened by instability in the region. If they can help prop up the Afghan government they can help keep that trade route safe. 

I do think that one of the goals for China here that isn't mentioned is that China's military just needs to fight once and awhile. China has not been involved in a major military conflict since their war with Vietnam in the late seventies early eighties. They have a large and powerful military but one that hasn't been tested in a very long time. They want to have a core of veterans who have at least seen combat. 

They will also get a chance to perfect their anti-insurgency tactics. China is always afraid of revolution and not just from their Uygur Muslim minority. Should things spiral out of control they want to have soldiers that know how to fight effectively in a counter insurgency. 

So how will things go for China? Probably about as good as it has gone for the United States. Years of conflict there have not lead to a US victory and I doubt a few Chinese troops will make much of a difference. What is needed is a large army that will fight and is willing to stay for the long haul. China isn't willing to do that but neither is any other country, America included. My guess is that they will accomplish very little in Afghanistan. 

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