Friday, August 31, 2018

Separatist leader in Ukraine assassinated in cafe bombing

File photo of Alexander Zakharchenko. AP.

Alexander Zakharchenko, leader of the self proclaimed Donetsk Republic, has been assassinated in a bombing at a cafe. AP. Zakharchenko was the most important leader of the rebellion against Ukraine and was backed by Russia. The death was caused by a bombing at a popular cafe called "Separ" in honor of the rebels. Ukraine and Russia had dueling claims of responsibility. Ukraine believes that Zakharchenko was killed by his own side, either in a power struggle or because he had became a liability for the Russians. Russia says that the Ukrainians were likely responsible, possibly with American help. 

My Comment:
Ukraine has fallen by the wayside in terms of active wars. There is still some fighting and death going on but it's not anywhere near the level it used to be. The conflict there has largely burnt out as both sides attempt to lick their wounds and recover from the war which was devastating to all involved. 

It's clear though that the war's embers could flare up again. The assassination of one of the most important leaders in a terrorist attack is something that could cause it to reignite. Zakharchenko wasn't the biggest name in international politics but he was a major player in the Ukraine drama and his lose could have major repercussions. 

So who did it? I doubt that the Ukrainians are right. I doubt that the Russians turned on him as he seemed like he was loyal to him. That explanation doesn't make much sense. It is possible that he was killed in an internal power struggle but I find that fairly unlikely as well. I won't rule it out either though. 

I think Russia's explanation makes more sense. I doubt America had anything to do with it though. We usually use drones to attack our enemies, not low scale bombings like this. Plus we have little reason to risk a wider conflict in Ukraine after it has already calmed down. Our president doesn't seem to be that interested in starting up new conflicts. 

If anyone was responsible, I would bet on it being the Ukranians. They wanted to make Zakharchenko pay for his role in the revolution. They considered him a traitor and I have no doubt if he had been captured he would have either spent the rest of his life in jail or he would have been executed. They had the motive, means and opportunity to do so and I would not be at all surprised if they did it. 

So will this lead to more fighting? I kind of doubt it. Like I said both sides were pretty devastated during the war and neither side is strong enough to wipe out the other. And Russia is much more focused on their Syria adventure than Ukraine. There might be a small uptake in fighting but I kind of doubt it. Despite Zakharchenko's death I see it being status quo in Ukraine for the foreseeable future. 

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