The last major battle in Syria is about to begin with rebel and terrorist held Idlib province comes into the crosshairs.

Rebel held Idlib city. Reuters. 

The last major battle in the Syrian Civil War is going to begin in rebel held Idlib province. Reuters. Rebels, along with 10,000 foreign fighters belonging to al-Qaeda and al-Nusra, still hold Idlib which is the last province where that is the course. The UN fears that heavy weapons and chemical weapons could be used by both sides in the conflict as both the Syrian regime and al-Nusra Front have access to chlorine. Idlib has long been used as a dumping ground for rebel and terrorists who cut deals with the Syrian government.

Meanwhile Russia has deployed a major fleet to the Mediterranean. AP.  Russia has sent eight additional ships to reinforce the Mediterranean fleet, including a cruiser and two submarines capable of launching cruise missiles. 15 ships in total are now stationed in the Mediterranean. 

My Comment:

Looks like the Syrian Civil War may finally be reaching the end game. This is the last major area under rebel control in all of Syria. The only other rebel controlled area is the US backed rebel enclave in Tanf near the border with Iraq and Jordan. ISIS still has pockets of control in the southern desert and eastern border area. Of course the Turks still control part of the border and the Kurds control about a quarter of the country but everything else is in regime hands. 

The battle of Idlib is likely to be one of the most bloody and destructive of the war. Unlike previous battles against the rebels I don't expect another deal to be made. Idlib in the past has acted as a pressure valve that allowed rebels to retreat and not be slaughtered. There is nowhere left in the country for these rebels to retreat to with the possible exception of the American and Turkish enclaves. And that only counts for the more secular rebels. Al-Nusra has nowhere to run. 

I am not surprised that the media is focused on the potential of civilian casualties. I agree that there is a good chance of major civilian casualties but I think that is offset by the fact that if the regime wins, the war ends. Allowing the war to drag on any further than it has would be unconscionable at this point so even if civilians die it will be worth it to end the war.  

There are legitimate fears that both sides may use chlorine gas as a weapon. Both the regime and al-Nusra have used chemical weapons in the past and have access to chlorine. My guess is that if anyone uses chemical weapons it will be al-Nusra. They have basically nothing to lose and know that if they do use chemical weapons it will be blamed on the regime, even if they are the victims. 

The regime has little reason to use chemical weapons. They are winning the war and gain almost nothing from using chemical weapons. They can just use conventional weapons, airstrike and cruise missiles from their Russian allies to gain a similar results. Plus they know the international community will not stand for it and may even cause another round of airstrikes from the United States. 

Russia seems a bit loaded for bear in this case. They have deployed a massive fleet to the Mediterranean to help with the offensive. That fleet can launch cruise missiles to support the offensive but I don't think that's the only reason they are their. Certainly that role is important too but I think they are their for a different reason.

That fleet will give America and Europe reason to worry if they were to launch strikes against the Syrian regime. Not only do those ships have a powerful anti-air capability they provide a powerful deterrent to anyone who doesn't want a larger war with Russia, which should be anyone and everyone. 

People are worried that the battle for Idlib could be a tinderbox that could cause a wider war, but I doubt it. Even if Syria does use chemical weapons, and remember they have little reason to do so, I doubt that any strikes would be in the area the Russians are active in. We can launch cruise missiles from very far away. But I doubt even that will happen. 

I do hope that this battle goes quickly and that the regime is victorious. Bashar al-Assad is a brutal dictator but he's a better alternative to the terrorist dominated rebels. And even if he wasn't there is basically no chance of the rebels to win. All that prolonging the war will accomplish is more deaths, more refugees and more destruction. Hopefully it will be all over soon.