As ISIS fades the UN warns of a greater threat from al-Qaeda.

Hamza Bin Laden. CIA Photo

The UN is warning that as ISIS fades al-Qaeda could return under new leadership to be the biggest terror threat. Fox News. With Osama Bin Laden's son, Hamza Bin Laden, now in charge, the terror group has been invigorated. Already al-Qaeda is stronger than ISIS in Yemen, Somalia and South Asia and is now making inroads into Iran. ISIS members have also begun to defect to al-Qaeda as the terror group's fortunes have been reversed. 

My Comment:

Most news articles are focusing on the other major find of this report. It says that ISIS still has 20,000 to 30,000 fighters in Syria and Iraq. I don't know how true those numbers are but I do know that ISIS has no claim to be a state anymore. They are still a major terror network and hold some territory but the number of fighters they have is still pretty small compared to what it used to be. 

I find the al-Qaeda findings to be much more interesting. Of course, if you have been paying attention, al-Qaeda never really went away. Al-Nusra is/was their major affiliate in Syria and is one of the last remaining groups there besides the government and the Kurds that control territory. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is a powerful group that has conducted some international terror attacks. And the African affiliate, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb is also very dangerous and one of the more active terror groups in the world right now. 

Still, with ISIS on the decline there is going to be a vacuum in terms of Islamic terrorism. ISIS has almost completely stopped launching major attacks and they can only pull off attacks by lone wolves that are inspired by the organization and not trained and paid by them. Al-Qaeda has also been greatly reduced but they have had less international attention focused on them, giving them room to breath. 

I do think that the recruitment of former ISIS fighters is going to be a major issue. Many of those fighters have likely escaped from Iraq and Syria and will need a new place to live. They won't be welcome at home and have few other options. Joining another terror group is the perfect solution with them and they will bring the skills and experience that they have learned on the battlefields of Iraq and Syria. That will greatly increase the capabilities of al-Qaeda and other groups. 

As for Hamza Bin Laden I don't know how well he will do as a leader. He certainly has the name recognition and his marriage to 9/11 hijacker Mohammed Atta's daughter will give him a bit of credibility. But unlike his father he doesn't have the experience Osama had. Remember, Osama Bin Laden got his experience during the war in Afghanistan against the Russians back in the day. Hamza doesn't have anything like that. Time will tell what kind of leader he will be. 

We should also remember that al-Qaeda, especially AQAP, has launched several attacks. Most famously AQAP was responsible for the Charlie Hebdo shooting and I think they could very well do something like that again. 

The problem with al-Qaeda is that they tend to focus on spectacular attacks that are overly complex and easy to disrupt. One of the reasons the Charlie Hebdo attacks worked is because it was relatively simple to pull off. Time will tell if they have learned from ISIS, who tends to focus on much simpler gun and ramming attacks over massive bombings or hijackings. Given the butchers bill that ISIS has accumulated over the years it's easy to say which strategy is more effective. 

Finally, I do have to say that the danger from al-Qaeda is mediated by their focus on holding the territory they have. It's to the point where al-Nusra ended up changing their name and dropping out of al-Qaeda so they could better focus on the fight against the Syrian regime. Similar things have happened in Yemen as well as the focus seems to be on fighting the Houthi rebels and the Saudi alliance and not sending out major attacks. If that holds than the threat from al-Qaeda may remain minimal.