Fantasy Football 2018!

My 2018 team. 

As you may know I have played Fantasy Football for quite some time. And despite not watching any NFL games last season (other than parts of one game during thanksgiving) I managed to be the league champion last year. I credit that to having a very good draft last year and a team that was stacked at pretty much every position. Such a feat had more to do with the unfamiliar two QB format that we were trying for the first time than anything else. This year we are back to standard PPR and we just finished our draft. Due to circumstances outside our control we had to draft very early this year so I am hoping my team works out. 

I'm going to analyze each pick and then give some more general feelings about how my team is and where it might be heading. A note on the scoring, this league is standard PPR so that informs some of my picks. 

Round 1: Kareem Hunt. I was hoping that my secret weapon from last year, Alvin Kamera, would fall to me. He was an absolute steal where I drafted him but I wasn't even going to get a chance to get him this year. Instead I went with Hunt. I thought Hunt was the best RB left on the board at that point and in my mind there was no question that I was going to go RB/RB. Skipping over great talent at WR is tough to do but I never feel like RB is a position that you can afford to skip on. I have had so many seasons just completely destroyed due to injuries at the position I always want to have at least two really good RB's. Hunt's a great RB, but I worry about his new QB situation. He should be a solid pick though. 

Round 2: Melvin Gordon. He was my RB2 last year (or three or four, my team was that stacked) and I was really happy that I managed to get him in the second round. Honestly, if Hunt had been gone he would have been my pick in the first. He's used very hard in San Diego and also gets a lot of play in the passing game. I think Gordon is a borderline first round pick and I was thrilled to get him in the second. 

Round 3: Travis Kelce. Another returning player, and one I was thrilled to get in the 3rd round. Back in the dark days of 2016 my campaign was ruined by a lack of talent at TE. I decided last year that wasn't going to happen again so I picked Kelce, who was rock solid at the position. Picking a TE before a WR felt kind of strange but getting a likely 15 to 20 points from a position that usually is lucky to get more than 10 is great and something I will try and get every year. If I had waited I could have gotten Zach Ertz in round 4 but I didn't want to take that chance since after that the drop off in talent is pretty steep.  He does have Patrick Mahomes throwing to him, which is probably a downgrade from Alex Smith, but my hope is that he dumps off to him regularly. 

Round 4: Tyreek Hill. It's at this point I should have realized that I was going heavy into the Chiefs. I think Hill was the best WR available but I am betting a lot on Patrick Mahome. Hill is a great talent but out of all three of my Chiefs players, he's the one most vulnerable from bad play from Mahome. A safer pick, like Larry Fitzgerald or Demaryius Thomas might have been a better pick. Still, if it does work out I got a steal. Hill was a top 10 WR last year and though some regression is likely, I bet he remains in the WR1 discussion. 

Round 5: JuJu Smith Schuster. What a name right? Anyways Schuster isn't a bad pick but he is what I get for reaching at TE. There were some better WR's I could have gotten instead of him if I had waited at TE but all and all he's not bad. He's a good compliment to Antonio Brown, who should open things up for him. Still, he's more of a flex play than WR2 material though, so it could mean trouble. 

Round 6: Marshawn Lynch. This is the pick I am the least happy about, and not just because I dislike Lynch as a person. In PPR Lynch isn't that good since he rarely seems to catch the ball. He's also pretty damn old as well but as a flex play he's alright. Still, there were a lot of better RB's still on the field at this point and I wish I had reached for one of them. Mark Inghram, one of my RB committee last year, was still on the board (despite a four game suspension) and so was Tarik Cohen. Both of them would have been better picks, but for whatever reason I didn't reach for them. Lynch feels more like a bye week fill in than anything else so I should have waited a round or two for him, or gotten someone else. 

Round 7: Josh Gordon. Risk reward play here but I think he was a potential steal where I found him. Gordon has WR1 talent if he can just get his personal issues under control. The risk is that he gets suspended or kicked out again but if he plays he plays extremely well. I think at his position in the draft he was probably the best talent at WR left so I scooped him up. I wasn't going to buy him at his average draft position, but to see him fall that far made the risk worth it in my opinion.

Round 8: Chris Thompson. Another returning player Thompson mostly stayed on my bench last year due to extreme depth at RB. He was great until he injured his leg though and I am happy to get him back. With Darrius Guice having an ACL tear it's likely that Thompson emerges as the number one RB at the Redskins and he sees similar usage as last year he should be a great flex play and is probably the guy I will be using over Lynch. And even if he ends up losing some touches, he's a great ball catcher which is awesome in PPR. I am slightly concerned about his health but here's hoping he made a full recovery from his broken leg. 

Round 9: Emmanuel Sanders. Kind of a boring pick but that's what you get in round 9. He wasn't that great last year but the Broncos had a terrible QB situation that is improved this year. He should be a bye week fill in mostly but I think he's got flex potential. 

Round 10: Marlon Mack. He was ok last year even with Frank Gore being in front of him. Now that Gore is no longer with the Colts Mack's usage should increase, if he can stay healthy. He's the lead back for the Colts which is about the best thing I can say about him. Given where I drafted him he was probably the best RB I could get. 

Round 11: Kenny Stills. Stills strikes me as an all or nothing kind of guy. Some weeks he will get 100 yards and a TD and others he won't get much of anything. He's not a volume guy but one that can break off a TD once and awhile. He's ok where I drafted him considering what was going in this round was mostly 2nd and 3rd string RB's. Still, I see him as a bye week fill in at best.

Round 12: Matthew Stafford. QB is stacked again this year and I feel fine waiting for Stafford. With only one QB slot this year it would be trivial to add a second QB if Stafford doesn't work out. He's not a sexy pick but he is a safe one and given where I got him in the draft I am happy with him. Lions have a pass happy offense so he should be a decent source of points for me. 

Round 13: Tyler Lockett. He is what he is, which isn't much, but I think I should have gone with Allen Hurns here. He has more upside and is in a better situation than Lockett but I didn't pick him. Oh well. Locket is the kind of guy I don't expect to start unless things have really gone wrong which is about what you get this late in the game.

Round 14: Jordan Wilkins. More of a lottery ticket than a handcuff to Marlon Mack, Wilkins is a backup Colts RB. While Mack will probably start the season at RB, Wilkins is a shoe in to end the season at that position. Either way, picking a late round RB rookie really worked out for me last season and I am hoping that it will do so again. If not, who cares, it was pick 14! 

Round 15: Ravens D/ST. Very surprised that I managed to snag this unit because six other defensive units went before hand even though the Ravens were the number two unit last year after the Jaguars. There wasn't any negative change for the Ravens so this should be a great pick for me. D/ST is one of my personal bugbears so I am glad that I got a solid one in the Ravens. Just goes to show that the last couple of rounds can be important. 

Round 16: Wil Lutz: Ok, the last round of the draft ISN'T important. Carry on. 

So what do I think? I don't think my team is quite the powerhouse it was last year but it is still a good team. There was basically no way I could ever top that team, so some regression was inevitable. Screwing up the round 6 pick hurt as if I had gone with Mark Inghram or Tarik Cohen I would have had four pretty good RB's with a decent bye week fill in and a lottery ticket. Instead I have three pretty good RB's and Lynch, who is going to be getting between 10 and 15 points most games. That's ok for bye weeks and if someone gets hurt, but I want more from my flex position. It was a pretty big mistake but one that I think I should recover from as long as my team stays healthy. 

I'm pretty happy with my receiver situation as I think the Josh Gordon lottery ticket pays off. If it does my starting lineup is pretty scary with two likely WR1's and a couple of decent flex plays. If it doesn't I'm kind of missing a WR2 but it shouldn't be a huge deal. Where I got him ensured that I wasn't really sacrificing anything else to take him and if it works out it's going to pay huge dividends. 

My only problem is that I could be very beholden to the play of Patrick Mahomes with the Chiefs. I went heavy into their skill players and if he fails, my team will likely fail along with it. I see Hunt and Kelce as players that will do well regardless, but if Hill doesn't work out for me I could be in serious trouble. 

Do I think I can win a championship with this team? Perhaps. A lot can change between now and the playoffs, and considering how early we drafted, a lot could change between now and the regular season! I will likely have to watch the waiver wires though as I feel some of my players may not last the whole season. If my team can stay healthy I have a decent shot to make the playoffs and even win the championship back to back. I will keep everyone updated regardless!