Saturday, August 16, 2014

What will America do if Ukraine and Russia go to war? Yahoo/Reuters

Russian military vehicles in the region. Yahoo/Reuters

If Russia and Ukraine go to war, what will America and European allies do? -Yahoo/Reuters. The question has become more pressing after unclear reports of a Russian column entering Ukrainian territory. The Russians haven't responded to NATO claims that they had recently sent a detachment of military vehicles. Ukraine makes the unsubstantiated claim that all of these units were destroyed in an artillery strike. If that is the case then the two countries are very close to outright warfare. However, there is very little America can do about the situation. Ukraine is not a member of NATO and there is little appetite for a major European war between two nuclear powers. NATO says that military action is "completely off the table". Further sanctions, however, might be an option. Some non-lethal supplies are already being given to Ukraine, which could be expanded to lethal arms as well. 

My Comment:
If Putin wants war there is almost nothing the West can do about it. He has all the cards. He knows that we know that Ukraine isn't worth going to war with Russia over. He essentially has a free hand to do what he wants because the worst that could happen are sanctions and some limited support for Ukraine. So the answer to the question is nothing more then a few token sanctions and hand wringing. I personally think we should leave Ukraine to the fate they chose when they elected ultra-nationalists. They must have known that Putin wasn't going to stand for that and that they wouldn't have support from the west. Forget about whether it was the right thing to do or not. From a purely pragmatic viewpoint, it was a huge mistake. I'm not saying Russia is right in what they are doing, just that right and wrong have nothing to do with who wins and who loses. And Ukraine picked a losing strategy from the start. 

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