Saturday, July 26, 2014

Ukraine and Russia are trading low scale artillery fire. -Yahoo/AP

Russian separatists in Donetsk. Yahoo/AP

Ukraine and Russia accuse each other of firing artillery across the border. -Yahoo/AP Ukraine claims that the area near the town of Kolesnikov came under heavy rocket fire and a border post near Marynovka came under mortar fire. They also claim to have shot down three Russian drones. Russia claims that it's forces in the village of Primussky came under mortar fire. For its part the United States backs Ukraine's claims while dismissing Russia's. 


My Comment:
Talk about a pro-Ukraine article! The Ukrainian allegations took up most of the article while Russia's only got a couple of sentences. Russia has complained about Ukrainian cross border shelling before, so it's not like this is a new issue. Given the amount of propaganda going around and the fact that both sides in this conflict aren't exactly known for honesty, it's hard to figure out the truth. Given how pro-Ukraine western media and how RT and other Russian news sites are all but officially Russian propaganda it is very hard to find an unbiased source. 

What's my take? Both sides have most likely shelled across the border, either by mistake or on purpose. I don't think there is any question of that at this point, and both sides are guilty of it. The fog of war is a real thing and mistakes are bound to happen on both sides, especially with a para-military group like the pro-Russian rebels running around. But it is very possible that both sides are doing it on purpose. And these cross border shellings are great propaganda for each side since if they convince their supporters that they are being attacked it's harder to criticize them.

Expect these shellings to continue at their current low intensity. It's not likely to get any worse then this, but it will continue. Remember, Putin is playing the long game. He doesn't want to risk his own forces. Instead, he wants the rebels to survive until winter so he can cripple Ukraine economically through sanctions, cutting off their gas supplies and the cumulative effect of the incredible costs of running anti-insurgency campaign. For Ukraine, this is a temper tantrum. They know that any real attack would result in Putin crushing them (he doesn't want to use his military but if Ukraine starts killing Russian civilians in Russia he will face immense domestic pressure to respond in kind), but they can use it as a way to defy Moscow. They won't accomplish any actual military goals but their pride is wounded and they want to do something. 

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