Russia warns of possible military action after a cross border shelling. -Washington Post One man was killed and two more people were injured in the artillery attack. Russia claims the Ukrainians fired the shot while Ukraine blames pro-Russian rebels. It happened during a battle in which both sides exchanged artillery fire after a column of 100 "mercenary" vehicles entered the area from Russia.
My Comment:
First of all neither side could possibly know who was responsible for the shell ending up where it did. The fog of war is a real thing and it is probably impossible for anyone to know what happened here. That being said both sides will try to use it to there advantage. Either way it's horrible for the man who got killed and the two who were injured.
Will Russia invade or attack? Cross boarder violence can lead to warfare but I don't think it will happen quite yet. If this particular incident does result in some kind of retaliation expect it to be either clandestine or extremely limited. What could lead to a larger intervention for Russia? If Donetsk and Luhansk end up in a prolonged siege it could bring Russia into the war.
As to whether Putin actually wants a war, I would say no. He certainly wants to punish Ukraine and consolidate his gains in Crimea but actual extended warfare is not in his best interest. I don't think he cares about sanctions or other western intervention but I also think he understands that war probably isn't worth the cost he would pay. But even dictators have to answer to their population and something tells me if we have more incidents like this one then he will face internal pressure to attack.
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