Israel and the United States launch major strikes against Iran.

 

The aftermath of a strike in Tehran. AP. 

Israel and the United States have launched major strikes against the Iranian government. AP. Strikes targeted the government in Tehran and targeted both military and civilian leadership, including Grand Ayatollah Khamenei. Diplomatic efforts to avoid a conflict were unsuccessful, Iran refused to budge on their nuclear program and did not discuss other pressing issues, like support for Iranian proxies in the region and their ballistic missile program. In response to the strikes, Iran launched missile attacks across the region. Critically, they did not just target Israel, but many other Gulf States. Trump cited Iran's long history of violence against US interests in the region, the killing of tens of thousands of protesters this year and allegations of a continued nuclear program as a casus belli for the conflict. 

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— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 28, 2026

My Comment:

I am not very surprised that a conflict broke out with Iran. After all, you don't send two carrier strike groups and about 1/3rd of your fighter jets to the Middle East just for fun. The military build up by the United States was one of the largest since the Iraq War and it was going to be used if diplomacy failed. 

And it did. The Iranians just wouldn't budge. Even though the smart thing would have been to make a deal with President Trump, they absolutely would not move on nuclear enrichment, let alone other issues, like funding the Houthis and Hezbollah. I said previously that the rational thing would be to simply give up their nuclear ambitions, but for whatever reason, they could not. And now they are paying the price.  

It is unclear how much damage these strikes have done but the general perception is that the strikes were extremely effective. It is very likely that much of Iran's leadership is dead. And that may include Iran's president and Ayatollah Khamenei, with Israel saying they got him as of this writing, though who knows if that is accurate. 

Iran simply did not have the air defenses left to actually try and stop these strikes. They lost most of their defenses during the war with Israel last year and they did not have a chance to build them back up. And indeed, it seems like they focused on building offensive weapons, like ballistic missiles and drones, instead of shoring up their air defenses. They are absolutely paying the price now, they simply cannot contest anything the United States or Israel are doing right now. The United States has total air superiority.

Iran also made the baffling move to target US bases in the region and this has angered almost all of their neighbors. Indeed, the strikes that targeted, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE, Bahrain, Jordan and even Syria, will likely result in many of those countries either offering clandestine or open support, or even joining the conflict themselves. Indeed, I would be surprised if the Saudis, and the other non-Oman, non-Iraq gulf states don't join the war, and even Syria, under the new regime, will probably cooperate with the new coalition, though direct aid is unlikely.  

I generally think this war will be a success. Iran was already in dire straits due to losing the last war, along with runaway inflation, a water and food crisis and one of the largest protests the government has ever seen. Iran also does not have any real allies and their proxies in Iraq, Syria, Palestine and Yemen have been degraded, with only the Houthis in Yemen having real combat power. 

The only thing that could possibly save the regime, what is left of it anyways, is if a popular uprising doesn't occur. Given that they just killed 3,000 to 30,000 people during the last riots, there is always a chance that the Iranian people won't want to "risk it". After all, this is strictly an air campaign and the best the Iranian people can hope for is that the US will launch airstrikes to support them. Is that likely? It's way too early to tell. 

So is any of this justified? It depends. I personally think that the "Iran is six weeks away from getting a bomb" is nonsense and has always been nonsense. I don't believe their program has ever been peaceful, but I also don't think they had anywhere near time enough to actually get close to building a bomb. 

But that doesn't mean we didn't have a valid casus belli. Indeed, it's a fairly justified war. Iran pretty much violated the cease fire of the 2025 Israel-Iran war regardless, so that alone could justify military action. Not to mention the fact that they killed thousands of their own people this year when they protested the regime. 

The most compelling case, and the one on the most defensible legal ground? It's the fact that Iran has killed thousands of American soldiers and civilians since the inception of the regime. In Iraq alone they were directly responsible through their proxies in killing at least 1000 US troops. Not to mention the post Iraq War attacks on US troops in Syria and Iraq. And, of course, several major terror attacks, including the Khobar Towers attack in 1996 and the Bruit attack in 1984. The Iranian regime has a ton of blood on their hands and an unacceptable amount of it is American...

It is probably worth noting here that this is not the first conflict that broke out this week. The war between Afghanistan and Pakistan broke out again, with both sides attacking each other and a lot of folks getting killed on both sides. That war should be a very different conflict, given that it involves ground troops, but I would be remiss if I didn't at least mention that things are getting spicy there as well. Indeed, I think that one is the more serious war and it's utterly rotten timing that all the diplomatic energy is going to be going to the Iran conflict. 

The US military buildup near Iran is one of the largest in recent history.

 

The USS Gerald R. Ford. AP. 

The United States military build up near Iran is one of the largest in recent history. AP. Two carrier strike groups, led by the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford, along with over 100 land based planes, including F-22's, F-35's, F-16's and F-15's have been deployed. The fleet, consisting of 16 ships including destroyers and littoral combat ships, is larger than the 11 ships that were involved in the Venezuela operation. It is notable that there has not been any major deployment of offensive ground troops, but units have been deployed to defend US bases in the region. The deployment has occurred while high stakes talks between Iran and the United States continue. 

My Comment:

It's certainly a huge force assembled near Iran. 16 ships is a huge deal and the strike power of one carrier strike group is more than anything the Iranians can field alone, let alone two of them. Not to mention the 100 combat planes in the region, along with the awesome firepower of our B-2 bombers. This force is more than strong enough to destroy what is left of Iran's air defenses and air combat power, already devastated by the Iran-Israel war. 

However, will those weapons actually be used? Talks are still ongoing and both sides are reporting progress, though no deal has been made. There are some obvious sticking points, most notably the demand that Iran give up any nuclear production capability while Iran wants to keep the ability to make some nuclear production for use in medical and power generation. 

But I don't think these sticking points are as critical as folks are making it out to be. There may indeed be the ability for one or both sides to compromise and a deal where both sides get what they want. Iran could keep a token program for medical use only and I think the United States will agree with that. 

Iran could misread things though. They could think that Trump is weak domestically and may not wish to risk the midterms over a war in Iran. That would be a mistake. Like I said, this force is more than capable of destroying Iran's defenses and could threaten the regime directly. And Trump has shown that while he is willing to use military force if negotiations fail, just like he did in Venezuela and, of course, the Iran-Israel war. 

I do think that Trump wants to make a deal. Of course he does, it's Donald Trump! His whole personality is about making deals and the Iranians would be smart to recognize it. All they have to do is make a better deal with Trump than they did with Obama. 

Regardless, I do think that if a war happens, it won't be a long one. Trump will either try something similar to what they did during the Israel-Iran war where they bombed Iran into the negotiation table, or they could go for a decapitation attack like they did with Venezuela. In either case, I would not expect a long war. 

Cuba kills four people in bizarre speedboat incident.

 

Havana Bay, Cuba. Politico/AP.

Cuban border forces have killed four people and captured six more in a bizarre speedboat incident. Politico. People on the speedboat fired at Cuban troops and lost a gunfight with the Cubans. A commander of one of the Cuban vessels involved in the incident was wounded as well. The United States has opened an investigation into the incident and said that the incident had no US involvement. Relations between the United States and Cuba are frosty with Cuba having been cut off from Venezuelan oil. The suspects in this incident are members of the Cuban exile community in Florida and have been accused by Cuba of being terrorists. 

My Comment:

This appears to be the Cuban exile community acting on their own. It was an extremely amateurish attempt to commit some kind of terrorist attack against the Cuban government. 10 guys with a boat and some rifles and Molotov Cocktails is not going to accomplish much more than that. 

I tend to believe the idea that the US government wasn't involved with this, mostly because of how incompetent it was. A US attempt wouldn't be 10 guys on a raid, it would be something a lot larger like the old Bay of Pigs invasion or, more likely, another Venezuela style raid. The United States would not be sending such a small force with such vague goals. 

Plus, this incident was clearly counterproductive. The Trump administration was working on a diplomatic solution towards the Cuban government. They had been cut off from Venezuelan oil and that had a massive economic impact. 

But that is going to be undone because of this incident? The Cuban government is spinning this as an American attack on Cuba. It doesn't matter that the scenario is pretty unlikely, people are going to feel like America is actually getting ready to attack Cuba. And it will give Cuba an excuse to crack down on Cuban resistance. 

I don't have a whole lot of respect for these men and what they tried to do. Attacking Cuba alone with 10 men alone is an act of madness. And like I said, it's very likely that the whole thing was counterproductive and would have been so even if they did accomplish anything. But they didn't even do that! They got intercepted before they even got to Cuba and four of them died and the rest got captured. 

So what was the goal here? I am guessing a small scale arson attack on some kind of Cuban government building. It was even possible they were trying to start some kind of larger campaign of terrorism. If so, that was a pretty stupid plan. I don't have a whole lot of respect for the Cuban military but they could and did easily handle this kind of raid. 

Mexico falls into chaos after the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel was killed in a military raid.

 

A burnt out bus used as a barrier in Mexico. BBC/Reuters.

Mexico has fallen into chaos after the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, also known as El Mencho, was killed in an army raid. BBC. The raid, which received assistance from the United States, left four members of CJNG dead and El Mencho mortally wounded. CJNG is one of the largest and most violence cartels and the violence caused in response to El Mencho's death has been extreme. Violence has broken out it in every Mexican state where CJNG has a presence. Most notably, even the tourist city of Puerto Vallarta has seen a large amount of violence between the Cartels and the National Guard. The death of El Mencho will be seen as a victory for Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum, but violence after his death will be inevitable due to retaliation from the Cartel and possible infighting or other cartels trying to take advantage of the power vacuum. 

My Comment:

Looks like they found a spine in Mexico. Taking out El Mencho is more than I expected from Claudia Sheinbaum, given her leftist politics and her perceived weakness. Taking him down is a major win in the war against the cartels in Mexico. 

I am guessing this happened due to pressure from President Trump and the United States. Trump had been chomping at the bit to do something about the Cartels, to the point where military force was not off the table. Trump has made stopping the flow of migrants and drugs over the border with Mexico a major part of his Presidency and this seems like a continuation of that. 

As for the violence, it is fairly extreme. The Cartels have shut down several cities and threatened civilians, but so far seem to be sticking to fighting the military. They have set up roadblocks and have gotten into a lot of gun fights. The Mexican military has responded and even launched attacks with helicopters against the CJNG forces. 

I don't expect the Cartel-Military violence to last very long. We have seen this kind of thing before when other Cartel leaders get captured or killed. We see a few days or weeks of violence but then things get back to normal. After the Cartels are gangs, their main motivation is profit and getting into a standup fight with the military does not offer any profit and can disrupt their operations severely. 

I do expect their to be an increase of violence generally though. The CJNG cartel was held together by El Mencho and, from what I understand, there isn't a viable replacement at the moment as his son is in prison. That means that the CJNG may fracture into infighting. Not to mention that the other Cartels might try to take back territory while the CJNG are weak. 

There is a major threat right now to American civilians in Mexico. I don't expect any fighting to cross the border, but folks in Mexico are in danger. Though taking American citizens hostage or killing them during a battle would be horrible optics and could even lead to strikes against CJNG, they have their backs against the wall right now and they have very little to lose. I am hoping that the folks in Puerto Vallarta and other parts of Mexico remain safe. 

President Trump has directed the government to release information about UFO's, UAP's and possible alien life.

 

President Donald Trump on Air Force One. Politico/AP.

President Donald Trump has directed the government to release information about UFO's, UAP's and possible alien life. Politico. Trump posted on Truth Social that he was releasing the information. The order comes days after former President Barack Obama said that he believed that aliens were real, though he later clarified that he hasn't seen any evidence personally as President. Trump said that Obama may have released classified information and said that "he may get [Obama] out of trouble by declassifying". The government has long been interested in UFO's and UAP's and has released several videos of UFO's. 

Trump says Obama revealed ‘CLASSIFIED INFORMATION’ when he discussed the existence of aliens

‘He made a BIG MISTAKE’

‘I don’t have an opinion on it. I never talk about it’

‘I may get him out of trouble by declassifying’ https://t.co/uFtiSdKaH4 pic.twitter.com/OBD4KLQRcq

— RT (@RT_com) February 19, 2026

My Comment:

There is never going to be another President like Donald Trump. Let's review the sequence of events. Barack Obama says off hand in an interview that he believes alien life exists, but says the government doesn't have them at Area 51. People read too much into it and Obama clarifies that he hasn't seen any evidence. A report asks Trump about it and he says, tongue planted in cheek, that Obama may have released classified information, and then he says that he will get Obama out of trouble by declassifying. And then the madman does it! Like I said, Trump is one of a kind. 

To be fair, a lot of information about UFO's and UAP's have been released already. We have all seen the videos of strange objects on defense department film. The government has admitted that something is going on but nobody know what exactly is happening. 

I am fully expecting that whatever Trump releases here will be similar. We will probably get new information about incidents that we aren't currently aware of. We will see documents we haven't seen before. We might even get explanations for previous incidents that have previously not been explained. And there may be some exciting stuff. 

What I don't expect is the idea that there will be a smoking gun, proof that aliens both exist and are here on this planet. As much as conspiracy theories say otherwise, I don't believe that's the kind of secret you could keep. And given that Presidents of both parties have admitted that they have no evidence either way, I tend to believe it. I have no doubt that if there was evidence of extraterrestrial life, Trump would release it for no other reason than to discredit the Democrats that covered it up, and I think Joe Biden and Barack Obama would have done the same thing. 

Regardless, this is more government transparency, and that is usually a good thing. There could be some negatives, like there was with the Epstein file release causing some pretty obvious derangement, but overall it's not a bad thing when the government declassifies things that don't really need to be classified. 

As for me, I am agnostic about the idea of aliens visiting Earth. I do think that the UFO phenomenon is "real" in that people are seeing and recording things they can't explain, but it doesn't necessary follow that the whole thing is aliens. It's not impossible though, and if proof of extraterrestrial life was found I would not be seriously surprised.