The US military buildup near Iran is one of the largest in recent history.

 

The USS Gerald R. Ford. AP. 

The United States military build up near Iran is one of the largest in recent history. AP. Two carrier strike groups, led by the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford, along with over 100 land based planes, including F-22's, F-35's, F-16's and F-15's have been deployed. The fleet, consisting of 16 ships including destroyers and littoral combat ships, is larger than the 11 ships that were involved in the Venezuela operation. It is notable that there has not been any major deployment of offensive ground troops, but units have been deployed to defend US bases in the region. The deployment has occurred while high stakes talks between Iran and the United States continue. 

My Comment:

It's certainly a huge force assembled near Iran. 16 ships is a huge deal and the strike power of one carrier strike group is more than anything the Iranians can field alone, let alone two of them. Not to mention the 100 combat planes in the region, along with the awesome firepower of our B-2 bombers. This force is more than strong enough to destroy what is left of Iran's air defenses and air combat power, already devastated by the Iran-Israel war. 

However, will those weapons actually be used? Talks are still ongoing and both sides are reporting progress, though no deal has been made. There are some obvious sticking points, most notably the demand that Iran give up any nuclear production capability while Iran wants to keep the ability to make some nuclear production for use in medical and power generation. 

But I don't think these sticking points are as critical as folks are making it out to be. There may indeed be the ability for one or both sides to compromise and a deal where both sides get what they want. Iran could keep a token program for medical use only and I think the United States will agree with that. 

Iran could misread things though. They could think that Trump is weak domestically and may not wish to risk the midterms over a war in Iran. That would be a mistake. Like I said, this force is more than capable of destroying Iran's defenses and could threaten the regime directly. And Trump has shown that while he is willing to use military force if negotiations fail, just like he did in Venezuela and, of course, the Iran-Israel war. 

I do think that Trump wants to make a deal. Of course he does, it's Donald Trump! His whole personality is about making deals and the Iranians would be smart to recognize it. All they have to do is make a better deal with Trump than they did with Obama. 

Regardless, I do think that if a war happens, it won't be a long one. Trump will either try something similar to what they did during the Israel-Iran war where they bombed Iran into the negotiation table, or they could go for a decapitation attack like they did with Venezuela. In either case, I would not expect a long war.