The United States has threatened to end Ukraine's armament program if they do not agree to stop hitting Russian energy.

 

A 2S22 Bohdana self propelled artillery piece firing in Ukraine. Reuters. 

The United States has threatened to end Ukraine's armament program if they do not agree to stop hitting Russian energy. Reuters. Both officials in Kiev and Europe have confirmed that the United States is pressuring Ukraine into ending the attacks on Russia's energy production. In addition to ending the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), the United States is also threatening to end intelligence sharing with Ukraine. The report comes after an energy deal between Russia and the United States and an announcement of an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine that has not been confirmed by either party. 

My Comment:

Very interesting developments in the Russia Ukraine conflict. Clearly something has shifted to the point where there is a lot of heavy pressure on Ukraine to give up their attacks. First there was the Russia energy deal which will lead to a lot of Russian diesel getting sent to the United States. Then there was Trump's announcement about the energy ceasefire. And Trump even said that Ukraine needs a new President. 

Clearly something has gone with the Trump Zelensky relationship. Not that it has always been steady in the first place, they have had some very serious spats before. But I almost wonder if it is broken now as, so far as I remember, I don't remember hearing Trump saying that he wanted Zelensky gone. 

So what happened? I am guessing that there is a very different idea of what Ukraine should be doing. Ukraine has been hammering Russia's oil refining and exports lately. That has increased gas prices globally, which Trump doesn't like. Trump has likely told Zelensky to knock it off and it seems like Zelensky hasn't listened. 

And I happen to agree with Trump. It's another example of the Zelensky regime trying to get headlines instead of actually improving battlefield conditions. They are sticking to the insane idea that somehow Putin will be overthrown if the economy gets bad. That makes zero sense given that the Russian people seem to understand that this war is existential. They aren't going to give up the war just because a few oil refineries are hit. 

It's also an almost criminal use of these resources. Attacking oil refineries isn't really going to change the battlefield conditions at all. Instead of attacking ammo dumbs and airfields, they are attacking energy production. They aren't hitting the front line troops and the supply lines that supply them. It's not going to win them the war or even help their troops in the fight.  

This is an effort to force the Ukrainians to course correct. Trump is worried about high gas prices and wants to do what he can to lower the prices. And he is sick and tired of Zelensky causing more problems for him. The threats are the stick. 

But I think the energy ceasefire is the carrot. It's getting cold in Ukraine and pretty soon it will be winter. Russia has been targeting their energy production for almost two years now. Ukraine managed to survive in 2025 because of the mild winter and the fact that they still had some good air defenses. I don't think they can depend on that in 2026 and it might be a very rough winter for Ukraine if they can't keep the heat on. 

I also don't think that the energy ceasefire is really going to happen though. Keep in mind, it's not just Zelensky that is pushing for the energy war, it's Europe. They still want Putin gone and their goal is regime change and they still somehow thinking that Putin will be removed. They aren't going to give that up anytime soon. 

And Putin has little reason to go along with it either. They have suffered some economic damage, to be sure. But he does want to keep up the pressure. I do think that Putin does want to improve relations with Trump so I think they will be more likely to go along with things for awhile, especially after the energy deal. But long term, I think that they will probably end up restarting the strikes after Ukraine continues their strikes. 

I do think that it's very possible that Ukraine gets cut off in the short term at least. I don't think this means that Ukraine will be totally cut off in the long term. Trump is already facing some whining for his deal with Russia and I am guessing totally cutting off Ukraine would be politically difficult. But a temporary pause is more than possible if Ukraine won't play ball.