Mexico falls into chaos after the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel was killed in a military raid.

 

A burnt out bus used as a barrier in Mexico. BBC/Reuters.

Mexico has fallen into chaos after the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, also known as El Mencho, was killed in an army raid. BBC. The raid, which received assistance from the United States, left four members of CJNG dead and El Mencho mortally wounded. CJNG is one of the largest and most violence cartels and the violence caused in response to El Mencho's death has been extreme. Violence has broken out it in every Mexican state where CJNG has a presence. Most notably, even the tourist city of Puerto Vallarta has seen a large amount of violence between the Cartels and the National Guard. The death of El Mencho will be seen as a victory for Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum, but violence after his death will be inevitable due to retaliation from the Cartel and possible infighting or other cartels trying to take advantage of the power vacuum. 

My Comment:

Looks like they found a spine in Mexico. Taking out El Mencho is more than I expected from Claudia Sheinbaum, given her leftist politics and her perceived weakness. Taking him down is a major win in the war against the cartels in Mexico. 

I am guessing this happened due to pressure from President Trump and the United States. Trump had been chomping at the bit to do something about the Cartels, to the point where military force was not off the table. Trump has made stopping the flow of migrants and drugs over the border with Mexico a major part of his Presidency and this seems like a continuation of that. 

As for the violence, it is fairly extreme. The Cartels have shut down several cities and threatened civilians, but so far seem to be sticking to fighting the military. They have set up roadblocks and have gotten into a lot of gun fights. The Mexican military has responded and even launched attacks with helicopters against the CJNG forces. 

I don't expect the Cartel-Military violence to last very long. We have seen this kind of thing before when other Cartel leaders get captured or killed. We see a few days or weeks of violence but then things get back to normal. After the Cartels are gangs, their main motivation is profit and getting into a standup fight with the military does not offer any profit and can disrupt their operations severely. 

I do expect their to be an increase of violence generally though. The CJNG cartel was held together by El Mencho and, from what I understand, there isn't a viable replacement at the moment as his son is in prison. That means that the CJNG may fracture into infighting. Not to mention that the other Cartels might try to take back territory while the CJNG are weak. 

There is a major threat right now to American civilians in Mexico. I don't expect any fighting to cross the border, but folks in Mexico are in danger. Though taking American citizens hostage or killing them during a battle would be horrible optics and could even lead to strikes against CJNG, they have their backs against the wall right now and they have very little to lose. I am hoping that the folks in Puerto Vallarta and other parts of Mexico remain safe.