Ukraine's Zelensky says he would not give up Donbas in exchange for peace.

 

Map showing the estimated front lines. BBC/ISW.

President Zelensky of Ukraine has said that he would not give up the contested Donbas region in exchange for peace. BBC. Zelensky made the statements ahead of a high stakes meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska this Friday. It is believed that Russia would demand complete control over Donbas, which Russia currently controls much of the two Oblasts that make up the region. Russia controls almost all (or all of) Luhansk and controls 70% of Donetsk. Zelensky said that he could not give up any territory in the region due to many defenses being stationed there and it would invite a 2nd war. The meeting between Trump and Putin comes as Russia is making slow but steady advances across much of the front. 

My Comment:

As expected, Ukraine is going to be the stumbling block between any peace deal between Russia and the United States. Zelensky's complaints here are not realistic and if there is any chance of the war ending, it's going to involve Ukraine losing quite a bit of pre-war territory. 

Does he have a point about Ukraine's defenses being in Donetsk? Of course. That has been the main focus of the war since it first broke out in 2014. Ukraine has spent a decade building up the defenses there and Russia has been attempting to degrade them since they joined the war officially. After Donetsk, the only barriers to a Russian advance would be natural ones. 

Does that mean that Zelensky is right to demand this? I've got mixed feelings. I do think that ending the war should absolutely a priority for everyone involved, and giving up some minor territory is fine if it means ending it. But it's kind of silly for Russia to demand that they receive territory they haven't actually conquered yet. They could trade some of the territory they took in northern and eastern Ukraine in exchange, but to expect them to get the whole territory without having conquered it is kind of dumb. 

Regardless, Zelensky's other excuses for not giving up territory are just as dumb. Using the constitution as an excuse is ridiculous as it could absolutely be changed easily. And Russia's constitution says the same thing, they claim both Donbas, but the other southeastern Oblasts as well as Crimea. It's not an excuse. 

Like I said in the last post, I think that both Trump and Putin know that Zelensky is going to be stubborn here. I still think that Trump and Putin will make some kind of deal, Zelensky will say no, and Trump will use that as an excuse to cut support for Ukraine. I fully admit that might just be wishcasting on my part, but I am thinking it will be true. 

Of course, Ukraine will lose the war regardless. They are taking extreme casualties to the point where they can't really hold the line anymore. I have seen reports of Russian special forces operating well behind the front lines, causing all kinds of chaos. That is due to a lack of soldiers and weapons, as Russia had not been able to do this earlier in the war. 

Ukraine is also losing territory at a pretty good clip. Russia hasn't had a major breakthrough but they are having widespread advances across the line. The northern front, near Sumy, has stabilized, but that's because Ukraine rushed units there, leaving them short handed at other fronts, which has opened things up for Russia even more. 

I see that being the course of the war if a deal isn't made. Russia making steady advances, Ukraine rushing troops to the current worst area but weakening the rest of the front and Russia taking advantage of that. Ukraine will continue to lose large amounts of troops and territory until, finally, something breaks. That's probably how the war will end...