Israel begins assault on Gaza City.

 

A Merkeva Mk 4 main battle tank. Zachi Evenor.

Israel has begun the first stage of their assault on Gaza City. NBC News. 60,000 reservists have been called up and 20,000 have had their service extended to man the assault. The IDF has warned civilians to evacuate Gaza City for safter locations in the south of the Gaza Strip. The move has led to criticism from multiple angles, though the United States has not been critical of the move. Hamas said the attack would lead to civilian casualties. The attack comes after Hamas agreed to a cease fire proposal that would see some of the hostages released in exchange for a 60 day cease fire. 

My Comment:

This attack was announced two weeks ago but it took Israel some time to gather and prepare forces to actually launch the attack. It seems like they are finally ready and fighting has begun in Gaza City. It obviously takes some time to launch a heavy attack on a major city. The Israelis must think they are ready because they have finally launched. 

I said when I wrote about this attack when it was announced, that the attack may be justified militarily, but it would be horrible optics and I stand by that. If Hamas is to be defeated they do need to take Gaza City. They really don't have a choice if that is their goal, and by all accounts it is. 

But the optics? Terrible. Already there is a refugee crisis in Gaza and this is going to make it much worse. Gaza City has over 500,000 people, though I don't know how many of those are still in the city. They will have to go other parts of the country and it's going to be tough to feed that many people. 

Even worse, Hamas has accepted a ceasefire proposal. It shows that Israel isn't interested in another ceasefire after the last one fell apart. That shows they are determined to win the war militarily, which will not be popular among Israel's critics. I think it's a bad move personally, why not take the cease fire and get some of the hostages back? You can always re-start the war later and it at least looks like you are trying to give peace a chance. 

Instead, Israel has chosen war yet again. Like I said, militarily it makes sense. You don't want Hamas to come back after this war given how back the October 7th attacks were. There is a logical reason to not choose peace if you are Israel. I don't really disagree with the decision to attack. 

But man, this is not going to be popular. Folks are already apoplectic about Israel and if this attack on Gaza goes poorly in terms of civilian casualties it is not going to be a good look. I don't really believe reports that Israel is targeting civilians but civilians will die in urban combat, that's just a fact of life.

Will the attack be successful? I am guessing it will be. Hamas had very little in terms of fighting power left. Israel has a large force of professional soldiers, armor, air support and a huge technology advantage. That being said, it doesn't take much manpower to defend a ruble-strewn city. I still expect Israel to win this fight though, albeit with some casualties.