Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. BBC/Getty.
President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin of Russia will meet in Alaska in an attempt to end the Ukraine War. BBC. The talks come after three failed meetings between Russia and Ukraine, which have not had much in the way of progress. Trump has made ending wars a priority of his 2nd term, but peace between Ukraine and Russia has eluded him. Trump was expected to launch sanctions on Russia on August 8th due to "frustration" Trump had with Putin, but a breakthrough happened that led to the meeting. It is unclear if Zelensky, President of Ukraine, would be invited to the meeting, though it seems unlikely. Trump has proposed a deal where Putin would keep Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk in exchange for other territory Russia has conquered, most notably, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, along with other minor territorial conquests.
My Comment:
Very interesting. It seems like there has some kind of breakthrough in Russia-United States relations. Keep in mind Trump was about to enforce sanctions on Russia, and even did so against India for dealing with Russia. But apparently there was some kind of deal made during US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff's visit to Moscow last week.
What am I expecting from this meeting? I am guessing that the deal proposed by Trump would be accepted or rejected, with acceptance more likely than rejection. Meetings at this level don't usually happen unless some kind of deal is already expected, and I am guessing that something important has happened.
The deal is one that is dramatically better than Ukraine has any right to. They have already lost the war and any deal where they keep any territory at all and where Zelensky avoids war crime trials and execution is a good deal for them. Losing only the two provinces that were giving them all the problems in the first place would be a huge deal for them.
It's not that great of a deal for Putin. Giving back Kherson and Zaporizhzhia would be a major problem for Russia as they would lose their land corridor to Crimea, which is not something they would like to give up. It's possible they would keep some of the land they took in that region to keep the land bridge. I am guessing that any deal that would be made would have some kind of exception for a land bridge.
Either way though, I fully expect Ukraine to veto this, or any other, peace deal. Ukraine has never dropped the idea that they are going to get back all the territory Russia has taken. Not just the land Russia has conquered in this war, but Crimea as well. That idea is insane, I don't know if all of NATO could get back Crimea at this point, but the idea that Ukraine would do so is a joke.
And it's no like Zelensky can even make this agreement. Sure, there is something in their constitution that says they can't get rid of territory, but that's not the problem. The problem is that he has a lot of Banderite Nazis in his government and if he ends the war or gives up territorial claims, they will overthrow him and kill him. And that's assuming Europe doesn't get him first.
Though Zelensky's days might be numbered regardless. There are already rumors that he will be replaced by someone more competent and more able to make a deal. Supposedly, Valerii Zaluzhnyi is being groomed for the role. And if Zelensky decides he doesn't want a deal? Then maybe Zaluzhnyi replaces him.
Regardless, I think the whole thing is a way for Trump to finally wash his hands of Ukraine. I am guessing some kind of agreement will be made with Russia, Ukraine will reject it. Zelensky will look unreasonable (especially if the deal mentioned is legit) and that will free Trump to drop him, end aid and then normalize relations with Russia. Perhaps that is wishcasting on my part, but I just don't see Ukraine not fighting to the bitter end and the 2nd best thing to ending the war would be ending our involvement with it and normalizing relations with Russia.
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