Trump and a suited Zelensky share a smile in the White House. ABC News/Reuters.
President Trump's efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war continued with a high stakes meeting with Zelensky in the White House. ABC News. Both Trump and Zelensky reported progress in the talks and they avoided the blow-up the last time Zelensky was in the White House. Zelensky also wore a suit, which was a sticking point during the last meeting. Trump also said that a trilateral meeting between Trump, Zelensky and Vladimir Putin of Russia was being planned. Trump also said that security guarantees for Ukraine, that fall well short of NATO membership, were on the table for Ukraine if they end the war. Trump also moved away from efforts to get a ceasefire in place, claiming that both Ukraine and Russia are opposed to it.
My Comment:
I'm not sure how likely a peace deal is. There are a lot of potential stumbling blocks that could derail the whole thing and I think both Zelensky and Putin have major reasons to not choose peace. The good news is that the peace process has not yet derailed and there is at least a chance for a diplomatic solution. That seemed very unlikely earlier in the month.
The stumbling blocks are Zelensky's demands and the battlefield situation. Zelensky risks losing power if he makes a deal. There are a lot hardline Banderites (ie Nazis) that won't accept a peace deal and if Zelensky does make a deal it's very likely he would face assassination or a coup by those elements of his government. Zelensky kept them around because they fight (Azov is one of the most powerful and well equipped military units left in Ukraine) and because he is afraid of them, but if he had been smart he would have purged those elements when he came into power.
The battlefield situation makes me wonder if Putin might give up on a deal too. Though the breakthrough north of Porkrovsk has been blunted it came at an extreme cost and led to other breakthroughs as Ukraine desperately tries to plug holes in their line. Doing so just opens up other opportunities for Russia and it's still extremely possible that Russia will manage a general breakthrough, which would pretty much end the need for a peace deal. However, that process could take months or years to accomplish.
But it does seem like Putin's offer to Ukraine is fairly generous. If western media reports are correct than Putin just wants what is left of Luhansk and Donetsk while keeping Crimea and the territory they have conquered in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. In exchange Ukraine would get security guarantees and the return of territory captured in Northern Ukraine in the Kharkov and Sumy regions. This offer seems so generous that it makes me suspect that Russia might not even be serious about it, but if it is legit, Ukraine should pounce on it. They won't get a better deal at this point of the war...
The sticking point there might be Ukraine ceding the unconquered territory in Donetsk and Luhansk. Giving up territory that hasn't actually been taken is going to be hard to agree with. Ending the war would be worth it, but supposedly Ukraine's constitution prevents that. Of course, Russia's constitution says that they can't give up the unconquered territory in all four regions, but they are making a compromise and Ukraine would be smart to go with it.
The one thing that scares me is the security guarantees for Ukraine. I don't want American soldiers fighting in Ukraine if the war starts up in a decade or two. From what it sounds the guarantees would be less than what we would see if Ukraine were to join NATO, but any scenario where we have to join a war between Ukraine and Russia is not a good one. Of course it sounds like Europe would be footing much of the bill but I don't know if I want any kind of security guarantee for Ukraine.
I do think that the suggested scenario where Trump and Putin were ready for Zelensky to torpedo these talks appears to be wrong. Zelensky seems to be more reasonable this time around and the fact that he wore a suit shows that he was at least serious about the talks. It does seem like there is a serious effort for peace.
So how likely is a deal? I have no idea. The pundits are divided but that tells more about them then it does for the possibilities of peace, pro-Trump people think this is a breakthrough and anti-Trump people don't. I think it's more likely than not that peace probably won't happen through diplomacy. I just think Putin is too close to a breakthrough to give up now. But Trump has proven me wrong before and I absolutely hope he does so again.
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