Israel appears to be preparing for an all out assault to conquer the rest of Gaza.

 

Israeli armor near the border. NBC News/AFP/Getty. 

Israel appears to be preparing for an all out assault to conquer the rest of Gaza. NBC News. Commercial satellite photos show troops massing near the border, which indicates a large ground attack. Benjamin Netanyahu has said that he intends to take all of Gaza, though he said he would hand it over to Arab partners after Hamas has been removed. The move comes as tensions between Israel and the United States are high over Israel's conduct of the war. President Trump and Netanyahu got into a shouting match over an argument over if people are starving in Gaza or not. Trump is reportedly upset by reports of starving as the United States has administered the Gaza Humanitarian Fund (GHF) and would face some of the responsibility. The rumors of an attack have also angered many other countries and has led to domestic criticism due to fears the remaining hostages could be executed or die in battle. 

My Comment:

As I was writing this the news broke that Israel's security cabinet has approved this military operation, which seems to confirm an attack is coming. That kinda refutes any argument that this is not going to happen, and soon. Perhaps as soon as tomorrow. 

I've got mixed feelings about all of this. I think this is the right move militarily but an absolutely boneheaded one in terms of optics. It appears that Israel wants the war in Gaza to end and to do so they will finally pull out all the stops. They intend to take over the entire Gaza strip and then give it to peacekeepers, presumably. 

I think there is an argument for doing this, of course. The Israel-Palestinian conflict has gone on for decades and finally destroying Hamas would finally end the conflict. I think Israel can pull off such an attack and it seems pretty clear that Hamas does not have much left in terms of weapons or fighters. I would not expect it to happen without heavy casualties on the Israeli side. 

I don't think such an attack would fail. Israel has heavy weapons, air support and skilled infantry. Hamas has none of those things left and the only real advantage they have is their network of tunnels and fortifications, which may have been damaged or destroyed in Israeli air strikes and raids. It would be a tough fight, just because all of the civilians would be in the way. And I doubt there would be much distinction between fighters and civilians. 

Assuming it works, I don't know what would happen next. Israel says they don't want to keep the territory and would want Arab peacekeepers, which is a possibility I guess. I don't know if there is an Arab nation that would sign up for that, it seems like a dangerous and thankless task and I doubt simply destroying Hamas would end the conflict. Israel would be a winner though, they would be outsourcing the war. 

Of course, politically this seems like a terrible idea. This is going to drive the anti-Israel camp insane, to the point where I wouldn't be surprised if there is violence. They are already pretty unhinged and this will possibly push them over the edge. And it's not like this will be a lightning operation, this will take weeks, if not months (maybe even years) and all that time these folks are going to go nuts. That does not bode well for the future to say the least. 

Critically, they risk losing Donald Trump and the United States. I have written many times now that the Trump-Netanyahu relationship is pretty fractured. Though some of Trump's critics accuse him of putting Israel first (they call him Zion Don) it's clear to me at least that Trump is pretty frustrated with Netanyahu and his warmongering ways. I don't think this attack will help things. 

Who was right about Gazans starving? I am not sure. The one thing Hamas is good at is propaganda so I am at least skeptical of the reports. And it's not like I trust our intel services to tell the truth. On the other hand, Hamas supposedly steals a lot of the aid and prevents it from going to where it belongs. I don't think Israel is directly starving people, and it's kind of ridiculous to demand that they feed their enemies. Starvation has been a weapon in warfare for a long time and it does encourage folks to surrender. Yes, it's cruel, but is it less cruel than extending a war forever like the Gaza conflict has done? 

It's an academic argument though, what is more important is if it is happening or not. I am guessing there are serious food problems but not to the point of starvation. Hamas has much of the blame as they are the ones stealing the food. 

Regardless, Israel will get blamed regardless, and I do think there is room for criticism here. Finally destroying Hamas is a good goal, but I am kind of sick of this issue sucking up all of the attention. To be fair, it might be helpful in the midterms next year if Israel is still a major issue, but I am more concerned about anti-Israel people losing their minds and causing violence. Plus, at this point I just want the war to end, and I don't think a major offensive will be a better solution than a peace deal.