President Trump making his remarks. Fox News.
President Donald Trump has criticized Elon Musk after Musk formed a new political party, the America Party. Fox News. Trump said that third parties never worked and that the whole thing was "ridiculous". Musk had threatened to start a new party after the Big Beautiful Bill passed and after a poll on X, which was open to non-citizens, came up in favor of it, Musk launched his party. In response Trump said on Truth Social that it was sad to see Musk go "off the rails" and called him a "trainwreck". Trump implied that Musk's true objection was the removal of EV mandates and credits, while pointing out that Musk previously didn't have a problem with it. Musk is said to be targeting a few seats in congress so he can create a block to prevent what he sees as the worst excesses of both the Democrats and Republicans.
My Comment:
Musk is a fool if he thinks a third party is viable in the United States today, especially when Trump personally has the support of essentially the entire Republican Party, and many independents as well. Like it or not, the United States is a two party system and it makes way more sense to change things within that system than to try and start a third party that will likely accomplish nothing.
Indeed, working from within is how this generally works. Libertarians have zero power in national elections but have a few senators and congressmen. The Tea Party was able to push Republicans into a more anti-corporate direction. And MAGA was essentially a hostile takeover of the Republican Party and has been incredibly successful. If Trump had run as an independent in 2016, Hillary Clinton would have been President. Even the Democrats do this, why do you think the party took a hard left turn? It's because the Progressives worked inside the system and lurched the party to the left.
Musk instead seems to think that a third party is somehow viable. Instead, it seems to benefit the left. Bill Clinton would have never been President had Ross Perot not run, or if he ran as a Republican. Perot had some good ideas and was vindicated on a lot of things, but allowing Clinton into office was not one of them.
Indeed, a lot of folks on the left and right feel that this is a boon for the Democrats. The party is on its heels with 19% approval and very little remaining power. And they are looking at a very difficult map in 2026 due to Wisconsin not redistricting but with Texas and Ohio doing so, potentially extending Republican House control by several seats. The only real hope they have is either some kind of disaster that they can blame on Republicans or having the vote split.
However, despite fears about splitting the vote, I don't really see that happening. Most of the folks on the right that would have considered voting for Musk weren't going to vote for Republicans in 2026 anyways. Those folks have been disgruntled throughout the Trump era and I doubt that Musk is going to change things.
I'd also point out that Musk himself has burned pretty much all of his bridges at this point. Republicans are disgusted with him for this move and I doubt any of them are going to be willing to give him a fair shot. And Democrats? The folks that were burning Tesla dealerships and wishing for Musk's death, just a couple of months ago? Forget it, Musk has lost them forever as they blame him (falsely, as Trump was already winning) for the 2024 election.
And Musk's beliefs are pretty far from the mainstream right. Some disgruntled gun owners, upset that the NFA wasn't repealed in the BBB, said they might sit out the 2026 midterms, but given that Musk himself is in favor of assault weapons bands and magazine limits, they aren't going to vote for him. And I don't think that there is any support for H1B visas, a core desire for Musk, among anyone. The H1B system is regularly abused and anti-Indian sentiment, the group that dominates H1B's, is sky high and only growing higher as more than a few American workers have found their degrees and expertise is useless as they are getting replaced by H1B's.
And who is going to support Musk? Mark Cuban has said he's interested, but he's a joke and widely hated by both the left and the right. Maybe Thomas Massie, who is hated by the right for his actions with the BBB? I know Musk has a lot of booster accounts on X, but most of those appear to be foreigners and though they have been pushed, I don't think anyone is buying it even on X.
My guess is that this will likely be a bunch of sound and fury that signifies nothing. Andrew Yang tried to do the same thing Musk is trying and failed miserably, it's actually really hard to start a new political party in the United States. And Musk is mercurial at best and he will soon be under major pressure from his stockholders to get back to his companies and get back to making money. Musk has moved on from his ideas before when things got tough, so it's very possible that he does the same here. It's even possible that there is a reconciliation with Trump and the Republicans. Though Trump is vindictive in many ways, he's also willing to forgive and forget. Both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio were major Trump opponents back during the 2016 cycles but now Cruz is a major Trump booster and Rubio is one of his most important cabinet members. A deal could absolutely be cut.
Is there a chance that Musk succeeds? Absolutely. Musk has been a very effective CEO and has done quite a few amazing things. But I just can't see how it would happen given the two party nature of the American political system and the fact that I doubt anyone actually wants a third party that is more concerned with H1B visas and green energy mandates.
As for Trump, I do think he's kind of baffled by the whole thing. And for once, it wasn't his fault that a relationship blew up. Musk started this by picking a fight over the Big Beautiful Bill, which made zero sense at the time, and still doesn't make sense today. Even if you believe the worst case scenario in terms of deficit impact, there's the fact that tariffs are coming online that will offset any of the costs. I do hope that Trump is able to repair the relationship somehow and this so called "America" party can end up in the dustbin of history where it belongs.
No comments:
Post a Comment