A Thai solider mobilized for battle. Reuters.
Thailand and Cambodia have exchanged fire over a long disputed border. Reuters. Both sides blamed each other for starting the conflict, but who actually did is unclear. What is clear is that Cambodia launched artillery strikes that killed 12 people, 11 of them civilians, while Thailand used F-16 fighter jets to bomb targets in Cambodia. The skirmish occurred just a day after Thailand recalled their ambassador to Cambodia over an incident involving a death caused by a landmine, which Thailand accuses Cambodia of planting. The United States, which is a close ally to Thailand, called for an end to the conflict. Thailand and Cambodia have a long history of border disputes, and there has been violence before.
My Comment:
It is unclear how bad this conflict is going to get. So far things seem to have calmed down a bit, but it's unclear if that means the conflict will stop or if it's just gearing up for a larger war. It does take time to mobilize forces and the limited strikes we have seen might have been all either side could pull off right now.
I don't really have a side to support right now, though I do think that Cambodia was fairly reckless with their strikes. They used Grad missiles, which are hardly precision weapons, to launch their strikes, and I am assuming that is what hit the Thai gas station and caused all of the civilian casualties. Given that we know nothing about the damage done by the Thais to Cambodia, I'm going to hold off on condemning either side.
What does concern me is the fact that Thailand is so dramatically more powerful than Cambodia. They have a large professional military, modern fighter jets and even an aircraft carrier (though instead of their original Harrier jump jets, the HTMS Chakri Naruebet has degraded into a helicopter carrier). Cambodia has none of those things and is outgunned and outnumbered as a result. If a full scale war were to erupt over this border dispute, Thailand would win unless Cambodia got a large amount of help. Help they are not likely to get.
The one advantage I think Cambodia has is that the government of Thailand is fairly weak. The Prime Minister was just suspended and the ruling coalition could be broken up by the conflict. Without competent and undivided leadership, Cambodia could have an advantage if they are able to keep their government strong. And it's not like their military is terrible, they would likely have motivated troops and a homefield advantage against any invasion.
However, I think it's very unlikely that a long term conflict will occur. Though Thailand has an obvious military advantage, beating Cambodia would be more difficult than they are likely willing to accept. Cambodia is weaker, sure, but Ukraine was weaker than Russia too, and that war has dragged on for years. And unlike Russia, Thailand would gain little when the war is over, just a slightly more advantageous border.
Both sides could be facing serious economic damage as well. Both countries are pretty reliant on tourism and nobody is going to want to fly into a warzone. Thailand is a lot more vulnerable here than Cambodia, but neither side is immune to that kind of damage. So far the fighting is far away from tourist centers, but if that changes, things would go bad quick. Which is another reason why I don't expect this conflict to last long.
I'd also say that both countries are going to be hit hard by their respective allies to end the conflict as soon as possible. Thailand is an US ally and our current administration is led by a man who wants his legacy to be as a peace maker. Trump absolutely wants another ceasefire feather in his cap and will push the Thai government hard to come to an agreement. Cambodia too will likely face pressure from Trump, but also from China, who probably also want nothing to do with another major conflict. It's even possible for the USA and China to work together on solving this issue, but I wouldn't hold my breath there.
No comments:
Post a Comment