Protesters in Kiev. NBC News/AP.
Protests have broken out in Ukraine as President Zelensky implements law that ended independent control of corruption agencies. NBC News. The law gave Ukraine's Prosecutor General control over the National Anti-Corruption Bureau and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office. Zelensky cited "Russian" influence for the decision but it caused widespread outrage, both domestically and internationally. Ukraine has long had a problem with corruption and for many people it looked like Zelensky was covering up his government's involvement with corruption. Zelensky has said he would send a new law that would supposedly correct the issues. The protests come at a bad time for Zelensky as it may make Western support more unlikely and is happening at the same time as Russia has made a major breakthrough in surrounding the fortress-city of Pokrovsk.
My Comment:
The question I have is if these protests are organic. It seems odd that it was some minor anti-corruption offices that set people off given that Zelensky has incompetently handled the war and has press ganged men off the streets. Though sometimes all it takes is a little spark. It's like the Bud Lite scandal here in the United States, it was a minor promotion that ended up going viral and totally ended the momentum of the transgender agenda. Just as that incident made folks realize they could voice their displeasure at "wokeness" perhaps the new law did the same thing for folks in Ukraine that are sick of Zelensky?
But it's also possible that this is not organic at all. I have absolutely thought that folks in the West are tried of Zelensky. I think people have finally realized that Zelensky is not a good leader and he's undermining whatever countries in the west are trying to accomplish. For Trump, who was rather directly insulted by Zelensky in the White House, it's the peace process. For Europe, it's continuing the war at all costs.
After all, it was widespread protests that brought down the previous government. I have always said that both the CIA and European intel agencies fingerprints were all over the Maidan revolution and given these corruption offices were under de facto control of outside intelligence agencies, it's very possible these protests were organized by foreign governments that want to end Zelensky's regime. The fact that Zelensky immediately caved and is going to put in another law shows that if this was a message he received it.
What I don't think this is, is Russian influence. I don't think Putin really wants to get rid of Zelensky at all, given his incompetence. Russia's war goals are not quite accomplished, they still have territory they want to take. And it would be as dumb as trying to assassinate Hitler in World War II (an apt metaphor given Ukraine's links to Nazi extremism), you don't get rid of a guy that is screwing everything up for your enemies. Not until it's time to make peace, and I don't think Russia is there yet.
Regardless of if these protests are organic or not, they are the first sign that Zelensky might be in trouble. If so, it's far overdue. Though Ukraine had some successes earlier in the war, they threw away all momentum when they didn't take a peace deal early in the war. And then they followed that up with several misguided offensives that left their troops dead and their best equipment destroyed. Zelensky deserves a lot of blame for the failures of the 2023 summer offensive and the 2024 Kursk offensives, but he survived both disasters. Will he survive this?
Of course, this happens at a very bad time for Ukraine militarily. The air war is to the point that even if Europe scrounges up air defenses, they won't be enough, as Russia is now able to send in hundreds of drones a night, not to mention the missiles they are launching too. I have said since Trump suggested sending more Patriot missile batteries, that we could send ever single one in existence and it wouldn't change that much. Russia's military production is just too strong and Ukraine won't be able to withstand the onslaught.
And Pokrovsk is a huge problem for Ukraine too. Russia appears to be using the same tactics that have served them so well in other major battles on the fortress-city/logistics hub. Russia is nibbling away at the flanks of the city to surround it in a classic "cauldron", a tactic that has proven extremely effective in the past. Given that there have been reports (and video even) of Russian soldiers in the city itself, it's clear the front line is breaking down.
Should Zelensky mismanage the battle, like he did in other occasions where Russia established cauldrons, it could again destroy a large number of his troops and equipment, in a fight that he should probably retreat from. Capturing Pokrovsk would be a major victory for Russia, but a bigger one is if Zelensky insists on not evacuating his troops from the city and only fleeing with heavy casualties.
Given this, and the fact that there are now open protests against Zelensky, is it possible the war could come to a rather abrupt end? I am not sure. Even if Zelensky goes, I don't know if his replacement will be any more willing to cut a deal with Russia to end the war. And though the military situation obviously favors Russia at this point, I can't see how one battle and some protests could change the fact that Ukraine still has a large and professional standing army.
On the other hand, collapses happen fast and the combination of stress on the regime and a loss of morale from both that and the realities of the battlefield could indeed cause things to spiral out of control quickly. I'm in favor of this as it would probably be the thing that finally ends this stupid war... My money would be on nothing major happening, but the chances of real change have gone up considerably.
No comments:
Post a Comment