North Korea sending more troops to Russia?

 

Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin. New York Post/AP.

A new report says that North Korea is planning on sending 30,000 additional troops into Russia. New York Post. Russia had allowed North Korea to deploy roughly 12,000 troops during the battle of Kursk, where Ukrainian forces invaded Russia. Those troops helped retake the incursion and pushed Ukraine out of Russian territory. The report, which came from Ukrainian intelligence, says those troops would be reinforced with 30,000 additional troops. The report is backed up by satellite imagery from North Korea that showed Russian cargo jets and ships in Pyongyang. Ukraine believes that those troops will allow Russia to launch a major offensive, perhaps in the Sumy region, where Russia has gathered at least 50,000 troops. Russia and North Korea have been celebrating the terms of their defense pact and have honored the war dead that were suffered during the battle of Kursk. 

My Comment:

There is reason to be skeptical of this report, but also reason to believe that some further deployment of troops is possible. I am, of course, skeptical of all claims from Ukraine's intelligence agencies, for reasons which should be obvious. They have a long history of lying about everything and they have negative credibility in my view because of it.

But the fact that there are satellite photos that supposedly back up the idea that North Korea is ready for another deployment gives me pause and was enough for me to write a blog post. That's direct evidence that agrees with what the Ukrainians are saying. Plus, for once, Ukraine might be motivated to tell the truth for once given the diplomatic impact of the deployment. They could absolutely be wrong about the numbers though, but even a 10,000 man deployment would be noteworthy. 

The question is what role would these troops have? I am guessing that they would not be sent to the front lines in Ukraine proper. When they were first deployed in Russia they were fighting only in Russia. Their defensive pact with Russia probably doesn't extend to offensive operations against Ukraine in their own territory. 

Doing so would be a major escalation and one that could have a major impact on both Russia and North Korea. Many of Russia's other allies, like China, or non-aligned powers like India, would be upset to see North Koreans battling Ukraine directly. It was one thing for them to fight to defend and recover Russian territory, but quite another to try and enforce Russia's claims in Ukraine. 

My guess is that these troops would be deployed in a defensive role on the border with Ukraine. Those troops would free up Russian troops for offensive operations and could be used to take back whatever Russian territory remains under Ukrainian control (how much is an open question, I am guessing that there is little to be regained at this point). 

Doing that comes with its own risks. North Korean fighters did well during the Battle of Kursk, from what I have been able to gather, but they are not as skilled, well equipped or as competent as Russian fighters would be. Given that Ukraine is insane enough to launch offensives even as their best units are being chewed up and they are barely holding on to territory they hold now, these North Korean troops could be prime targets if Ukraine is willing to go after them. North Korean troops are not skilled in drone warfare and do not have much in the way of heavy vehicles or armor that they would need to defend against a determined attack. 

Of course, given that Russia appears to be on a general offensive anyways, would that even matter? They are not using the "big arrow" attacks they did at the start of the war, but are instead using constant pressure from small infantry unit probe attacks to detect weaknesses in the line and exploit them. Given that Russia is attacking on many fronts simultaneously, it might be worth the risk for them to use the North Koreans as border guards. 

As for rumors of a big offensive near Sumy, I am skeptical. After some initial success, Russia's pace in the area has slowed to a crawl, largely because Ukraine rushed units there to stop the momentum. That has meant that Russia has had more success recently on the southern and eastern front, with several more villages falling on each front. A major attack in Sumy would go against Russia's small unit infiltration tactics and would make little sense as it would be an attack on Ukraine's strongest forces right now. I am guessing that if a big offensive does happen, it will be in a place less well defended, unless Ukrainian forces are pulled out of Sumy to deal with some other brush fire.