Donald Trump issues threat to Hamas to release hostages immediately.

 

President Donald Trump. BBC/Getty.

Donald Trump has issued a threat to Hamas to release any remaining hostages immediately. BBC. Trump said he would send assistance to Israel and that no member of Hamas would be safe. The news has broken after it was also revealed that the United States and Hamas have had direct talks to try and get hostages released. Israel has been consulted in these talks. 24 hostages remain under control of Hamas along with the bodies of several more, including American citizens. Two meetings have been held between Hamas and the special envoy for hostages, Adam Boehler, in Qatar. 

My Comment:

President Trump seems to be a bit upset that there are hostages still remaining in Gaza. What set him off is a mystery to me, from what I understand Hamas is still abiding to the terms of the cease fire that set the hostages to be released in phases. Trump appears to not be satisfied with the pace of the releases. Of course, I don't think Israel is either given that they are again blockading Gaza. 

The fact that we are talking to Hamas directly could be a major reason why. Given how upset Trump seems to be I think those talks have not gone well. This could be an effort to get Hamas back on board with Trump's plan to get these folks released. It's very possible they want to hold onto these hostages for leverage, as they no longer have much of a military force. 

Talking to Hamas is pretty significant and a sign of how Trump does things. Other presidents would say "we don't negotiate with terrorists" and would let these folks rot in Gaza. There's an argument for that, if you negotiate with terrorists you legitimize them a bit, but the problem is that it isn't pragmatic. Leaving folks to rot isn't a solution. And Trump is probably President that relies on diplomacy more than any other president we have had recently. For example, Biden barely seemed aware that there were American hostages in Gaza, let alone did anything about it. 

Some on the right are upset about this as they don't really want Trump to help Israel. I could understand it if our citizens weren't being held as well, but as long as that is the case, Trump should do whatever he can to get those folks back. If it was just Israelis I might have some reservations, but that isn't the case. The anti-Jewish left is apoplectic as usual, but that's just par for the course. 

What happens if Hamas doesn't either release the hostages or cut a deal with Trump? I am not sure. From Trump's post it sounds like Israel will just get whatever they want in terms of weapons and free reign to do whatever they want with them. I doubt that it would actually involve US troops fighting in the war.

Either way though, I expect Hamas to release the hostages soon. They have very little leverage and if they try anything they will be in a very bad position. They absolutely need the cease fire to hold if they want to survive. And Trump has made it pretty clear that if they don't release them they are in a lot of trouble. 

President Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine.

 

Zelensky (right) and Trump (left) during the White House meeting. CNBC/Reuters.

President Donald Trump has ended all military aid to Ukraine after the relationship between Trump and President Zelensky collapsed last Friday. CNBC. Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Zelensky had a contentious White House press conference that devolved into a shouting match after Zelensky did not agree to a mineral deal that was designed to stop the war, demanding hard security guarantees. Trump criticized Zelensky further after he was quoted in the Associated Press as saying peace was "very, very far away". Despite the criticism and the end of military aid, Trump said that the mineral deal isn't dead yet. 

My Comment:

I am not surprised that this has happened, Zelensky handled things about as badly as he possibly could have during that meeting. Not only did he not sign the deal he agreed to, he loudly criticized Trump and Vance in the process. He dressed disrespectfully too, but it was his words that doomed him. And his comments about peace being far away? Absolutely didn't help. 

Despite the poor way that Zelensky handled things, it does show how much of a difference there is between what Zelensky wants and what Trump wants. Zelensky wants the war to continue, probably so he can draw NATO into the war as that's the only realistic chance of victory for him. 

I have also mentioned that Zelensky is stuck between four different groups, the USA, Europe, the Banderites in his own government, and, of course, Russia. I am guessing out of all of these groups, only Europe and the Banderites are still happy with Zelensky, and I am not sure about the Banderites. But I do think that if he had fully committed to peace, either group would have taken him out. Though it's possible (though unlikely) that the United States could take him out now too. It's funny but the only people that aren't planning on taking out Zelensky is Russia, for much the same reason why there wasn't a huge effort to take out Hitler by the allies, he might be replaced by someone competent. 

But with Trump, it's clear that he is sick of the war, sick of being ripped off and sick of Zelensky personally. I think there is an argument that Zelensky should have done more to help America avoid Joe Biden and if he had simply released evidence of Joe Biden's corruption then the war would have never happened. Zelensky's rather idiotic behavior lately has soured the relationship even further. 

The two men want very different things. Zelensky wants the war to continue at almost any cost, even nuclear war, because it's probably the only way he survives. Trump wants to avoid a nuclear war at almost any cost and does appear to be personally affected by all the death and destruction. Is there a way to end the stalemate?

Ending the weapons shipments might help. Though Europe has committed to supplying Ukraine with further weapons, their cupboards are almost completely empty. Without US equipment I don't see how Ukraine is able to continue fighting, especially since they were low on ammo, troops and morale even before this tiff happened.  

Keep in mind that the pressure could be increased on Ukraine even further. As far as I know Elon Musk is still allowing Ukraine to use Starlink. Trump could order that to end in a second and if he did Ukraine would be in even further trouble. 

Also keep in mind that Russia appears to be getting ready for a major offensive this string. They are still in the "mud season" in Ukraine and as soon as that ends I am guessing there will be major attacks. I don't expect to see the big "arrow" attacks we saw during the start of the war, rather, attacks across the entire breadth of the front line, similar to what Russia has been doing all winter, just on a larger scale. 

How does this play out in the end? Well, I don't know if Zelensky is playing with a full deck anymore. The smart thing to do would be to come back to Washington, in a suit and hat in hand, and beg Trump for forgiveness. He should also sign the mineral deal as it would be as close to a security guarantee that he is every likely to get. Will he do that? I have no idea. 

But if he doesn't? I don't see him or Ukraine lasting much longer without US support. Zelensky could be taken out by the various factions that hate him and Russia will likely take advantage of the lack of weapons, troops and morale to launch a major attack that could even break everything wide open. Keep in mind there are only a few "fortress" cities left in eastern Ukraine and after that it's mostly open fields and a lack of defenses. Things could accelerate very quickly and Zelensky is probably throwing away his best chance at an actual peace. 

The PKK group has agreed to a cease fire with Turkey, possibly leading to the end of a 40 year war.

 

Kurds in Iraq wave a flag with PKK founder Abdullah Ocalan on it. NPR/AFP.

The PKK, the Kurdistan Worker's Party, has agreed to a cease fire with Turkey, which could lead to the end of a 40 year war. NPR. The announcement comes two days after imprisoned PKK founder, Abdullah Ocalan called on the PKK to end the war. The war started in the 1980's after the Kurds felt they were being treated badly by Turkey. The PKK had largely fled Turkey and had only committed minor terror attacks recently. The move might be a sign that Turkey's President, Tayipp Erdogan, needs the Kurds to win his next election. The fall of the Assad government in Syria may have played a role, given the new government there plans to integrate the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into the military and may allow Turkish forces to fight there to deal with ISIS. 

My Comment:

Time will tell if the peace will hold. The Turks and PKK have a long history of violence against each other and it's hard to end 40 years of war. I don't really trust that Erdogan is really going to treat the Kurds much better than they are treated now. 

It's possible though. Erdogan's approval rating is slipping. I haven't seen super recent polls but I have seen quite a few from last year that had him underwater in approval. He might actually need the Kurds to vote for him if he wants to survive Turkey's next election. Supposedly he is done after the last election, but it's possible he will run again in 2028 and it wouldn't be a bad idea for him to get the Kurds on his side. 

As for the PKK, I think they saw the writing on the wall. They had long used the lawless areas of Syria and Iraq to launch attacks on Turkey but that seems to be over. The new government in Syria is a lot less sympathetic to a group of actual communist rebels. Assad didn't care because Turkey was a rival but with him out of the way, I am guessing the al-Qaeda descended government of Syria isn't going to tolerate PKK in their borders. 

The SDF were always unofficial allies of the Kurds, but they too aren't going to be able to protect the PKK. Though officially they don't like the PKK either, they generally looked the other way when it came to the PKK. With them being integrated into the Syrian army, I don't see that continuing. 

There is reason for optimism though. Abdullah Ocalan has quite a cult of personality built up around him and if he says to lay down arms, I think the PKK will listen to him. There might be some grumbling but I do think that they will listen to him, especially considering the current tactical situation. 

Regardless of the outcome it's another example of the status quo in the Middle East falling apart. Turkey appears to be on an upward trajectory and will fill the void that Iran left when their plans against Israel fell apart. Syria will probably be a Turkish Suzerainty, largely controlled by Turkey. Iran is no longer the dominate power and Israel is probably more threatened by Turkey than Iran now...

I do hope that the cease fire will lead to better treatment for the Kurds. Though I don't respect the ones that joined communists groups like PKK, I do think that Turkey should treat them better. At least now Erdogan does have a reason to try to stop turning them into Turks. Hopefully this peace holds.