Marc Fogel, an American citizen, released by Russia; is it the start of normalization of relations?

 

Marc Fogel after his release. BBC.

Marc Fogel, an American citizen convicted of drug crimes, has been released by Russia in a diplomatic breakthrough. BBC. Fogel had been arrested for brining a small amount of Marijuana into the country and received a 14 year sentence. The marijuana had been prescribed to him by a doctor. Fogel was not described as being wrongfully imprisoned until 2024 despite pressure from his family. WNBA star Britney Griner, who was arrested for an extremely similar crime, was traded for notorious arms dealer Victor Bout, but Fogle was not included in that deal, or a prisoner exchange by Biden for three other Americans last year. Fogel was released while Steve Witkoff, President Trump's envoy for the Middle East, was in the country. Witkoff is the highest ranking American to visit Russia since the war between Russia and Ukraine broke out. It is unclear if America offered anything in return for Fogel's release. 

My Comment:

I've got mixed feeling on this one. I have very little sympathy for folks that don't follow the laws of the countries they are visiting. Both Britney Griner and Marc Fogel faced extremely harsh sentences for bringing drugs into Russia, but both of them should have known a lot better. 

That being said, they were punished very harshly. If they had been arrested in America for possession of the small amounts of weed they had on them, I doubt either of them would have been imprisoned. Indeed, had they been Russians themselves they could have still been imprisoned but it sure looks like it would have been a shorter sentence. 9 years for Griner and 14 for Fogel is pretty ridiculous. 

Still, this is an easy win for the Trump administration and one for Russia too. Trump promised to get Fogel out and it's another feather in his cap. We don't know if he paid any kind of price for it, but presumably no arms dealers were released in exchange. That makes Trump look pretty good and it makes Joe Biden look horrible. All Biden had to do to get Fogel released is talk to Russia and he just wouldn't do that. And he could have easily included him with the other groups of prisoners that were exchanged. 

What is of real interest is the fact that I don't think Russia would do this if tensions were going to get higher. Releasing a prisoner, apparently at no cost, is a gesture of good faith and one that shows that Russia probably wants to get along with Trump more than Biden. Russia absolutely hated Biden and for good reason. Biden's the reason why the Ukraine war started in the first place and it's also why it has gone on for so long even though it's pretty clear the matter is settled. 

It also shows that there has been some high level diplomacy between Russia and the United States. The elephant in the room since Trump won the election has been what on earth would he do on Ukraine? There is pretty much nothing he can do to end the war, Biden escalated to the point that there isn't much that Trump could do, other than raising fuel prices which will actually help, not hurt Russia. 

I think this is a sign that Trump is willing to cut a deal with Russia. I don't think he can actually end the war but he might be able to trade Ukraine to Russia for victories in other areas, like the Gaza mess. The writing is on the wall for Ukraine and I am guessing that the plan is for DOGE to audit the Ukraine aid and when the billions of dollars of graft and waste is found, Ukraine will be cut off. Ukraine will probably lose the war before the end of the year anyways, so it's not like there is a huge cost here. 

If so, that's a very good thing. I voted for Trump in 2016 because I wanted better relations with Russia, not the insane war that Hillary Clinton was planning and Biden finally put into place during his term. I have never understood why Russia was treated as the #1 adversary when it was so obvious that China absolutely is and my hope is that we will be able to at least cool things down a bit... 

DOJ dismisses charges against New York Mayor Eric Adams

 

New York Mayor Eric Adams. Fox News.

The Department of Justice has dismissed charges against New York Mayor Eric Adams. Fox News. Adams was charged with several crimes based on foreign influence, including bribery, campaign donations from foreign government officials, wire fraud and conspiracy. The case was not dismissed due to the evidence in the case and was dismissed without prejudice. The reason the case was dismissed was for the appearance of prejudice by the Biden Administration due to they Mayor's criticism of illegal immigration. Adams was charged with the crimes shortly after the statements criticizing Biden's immigration policies. There was also concern that the charges would influence the 2025 New York mayoral race which Adams is running in and the Trump administration's effort to enforce immigration. 

My Comment:

I'm of two minds of this. I am convinced that Eric Adams is probably guilty of the crimes he is charged with. There is a real chance that he did accept bribes from the government of Turkey. He probably should face a trial based on the evidence. 

But I also feel like this is a pretty obvious "Bill Cosby" situation. Cosby was guilty as sin of sexual assault but the prosecutors in his case dropped an agreement they had with Cosby and a judge ruled that was a violation of his rights. In that case it was the right thing to let him go, despite his obvious guilt, because the prosecutors behavior was egregious. 

It seems like the same thing happened here. Selective prosecution is not something that should be tolerated. The timing of the case certainly made it seem like Joe Biden and his administration was only charging Adams because he spoke out about illegal immigration. I have very little doubt that these charges would not have been filed if Adams hadn't made the comments about illegal immigration that he did. 

They also have a point that this prosecution also appears to be an attempt to derail Adams and his election effort in 2025. Though Adams is himself a Democrat, the party is still angry with him for perceived support of Donald Trump. Adams is also a fairly centrist Democrat by the standards of the party and isn't really "woke" either. Convicting him of bribery charges would be a way to ensure that he wasn't going to win the 2025 election. 

I do think that the Trump administration did the right thing here but I do have to say that I do think that it's unfortunate that the case got destroyed by the Biden Administration. If Adams really is guilty, it's not great that he won't face any punishment for them. But as I said during the Bill Cosby case, it's better to let a guilty man go free in this kind of situation than to violate their rights. 

Trump approval remains high as the President gets high marks after three weeks in office.

 

Trump's approval rating. CBS News/YouGov.

Donald Trump's approval rating remains high after his third week in office. CBS News. Trump's approval rating is at 53% approve and 47% disapprove, which is much better than Joe Biden when he left office. Trump gets high marks for his immigration plans, though a majority say that large camps aren't needed before deportation. Trump is also described as effective, focused, energetic and tough by the majority of voters. Trump gets mixed marks on the Israel-Gaza conflict. 54% agree with what he is doing with Israel but people are much more skeptical of the idea of the United States taking over Gaza, with only 13% approval, though 40% say they are not sure. Trump's one area of concern is that 66% say he should be doing more do reduce prices, as Trump road a wave of discontent over inflation to the White House. 

My Comment:

Trump has pretty good approval numbers right now and it shows that folks aren't abandoning him. Keep in mind that CBS/YouGov has been biased against Trump for his entire political career. I am guessing the actual approval rating is even higher. 

It's also not surprising that Trump is getting good ratings on immigration. The 2024 election was partially about immigration and folks are so happy that Trump is actually trying to do something about the huge number of illegal immigrants in America. Though the numbers of deportations aren't super high, it's just a huge difference that we have a president that made stopping illegal immigration a priority. I think the lower numbers for holding immigrants in large camps is mostly because folks don't want to wait that long for folks to get deported. 

Some of this is due to the massive unpopularity of Joe Biden. Biden was none of the things that Trump was described as, he was senile and totally ineffective while Trump is at least trying to do things. And he has had some major accomplishments. Trump is at least attempting to keep his campaign promises. 

As for the Gaza-Israel war, Trump is seen as doing well. Much of this is because he was able to effectively end the war before he even took office, which was a huge accomplishment. Folks are a lot more skeptical of his effort to take over Gaza. Nobody seems to know how that would work though I agree that it's probably just an effort to make folks in the Middle East take responsibility for rebuilding Gaza. 

Trump's main problem is the economy. Folks want lower prices and so far things haven't really changed that much. Some of this is due to it being much harder to do things on the economy than anything else. You can't really flip a switch and fix the economy. And Biden did a lot of things that would damage the economy that haven't really stopped affecting it. The price of eggs is a good example, Biden had millions of chickens killed for bird flu concerns, and it's not like that's a problem that can be fixed in three weeks. I think that tariffs will eventually help the economy but it's going to be something that will take awhile to take effect. The real question is if it will happen before the 2026 midterms or after and it could be what defines his 2nd term. 

As for me I am mostly happy with what Trump has done. He's accomplished more then I have thought. And I'm surprises that Trump's victories on the culture war front, like the bans on trans surgery on children, weren't covered. But it hasn't all been good, his order tonight to end the production of the penny has to be the worst thing he has ever done by far. Everything in the country just got more expensive, as you know everyone is going to round up, and not down. Still, other than that madness, I'm extremely happy with everything else he has done. 

The House wants to ban Chinese AI program DeepSeek from government devices...

 

File photo of the DeepSeek. AP.

The House wants to ban Chinese AI program DeepSeek from government computers and may move to ban it entirely from the United States. AP. DeepSeek took the tech world by storm by being as effective as American AI programs but with much cheaper costs. However, major security concerns exist. The program can send login information to a company that has been banned from operating on US soil. The ban would be similar to the one currently in use for TikTok, which is banned from government devices. Another bill has been introduced that would ban all AI that comes from China. 

My Comment:

It's not surprising that DeepSeek would have the ability to steal login information. The whole thing seems like a major scam by China in order to use AI against the rest of the world. Banning this technology from government devices is a major no-brainer. DeepSeek appears to be slightly better than other chat based AI but the security threat obviously isn't worth it. 

Some will say that this is just the United States not wanting to compete with DeepSeek, which appears to offer a superior product. I am sure that is part of it as tech stocks took a massive hit after DeepSeek was released. But just because that is true does not mean that DeepSeek should be used on government devices. 

I also have questions about how China was even able to develop this program. I think they are obviously smart enough (and willing to steal) to pull it off, but they do not have the production ability to get the chips needed to run them. You need high end, professional GPU's to run these kinds of programs and supposedly China does not have access to those chips. They may have made their own but it's more likely that they were able to obtain them from Taiwan somehow. 

I don't really know why AI programs like this would be allowed on government devices in the first place. AI chat programs are just toys and don't seem to do all that much useful other than function as a better search engine than Google. Supposedly chat based AI is supposed to change the world but I also don't know why the government would need to use it. 

Besides, there are plenty of US based choices they could use even if the AI was necessary. ChatGPT and Claude are supposedly only slightly worse than DeepSeek and I have found that Grok, Elon Musk's AI program based on the X platform, works fine. That comes with a X subscription and you can also use it to generate stupid pictures like this:

Regardless, I am not sure if a full ban of DeepSeek is necessary. I think if the ability to scan someone's login info is removed than it should be fine for domestic use. I still wouldn't be comfortable having it on government devices, but that's true no matter the program, I don't think Facebook, Instagram or X should be on government devices either, unless it's for official accounts. Either way, if DeepSeek cleans their act up then it would be fine to allow them for domestic use. If they don't then a full ban might be necessary. 

   

Politico and other news outlets received millions of dollars from government subscriptions.

 

Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt before the announcement. New York Post/Getty.

Politico and other news outlets received millions of dollars from government subscriptions. New York Post. Politico, a news outlet owned by German Alex Springer, received 8.4 million for subscriptions and contracts. Those have now been canceled by DOGE. Politico is best known for their regular news outlet but they also have many trade and policy newsletters about health care, energy and other topics. 

Politico was not the only news outlet receiving these kinds of contracts and subscriptions. The Wrap. Two major wire services, AP and Reuters, received $620,000 and $3.1 million respectively. The New York Times had also received more than $375,000. 

My Comment:

This is a very good thing for a couple of reasons. The most obvious is that this was a colossal waste of money. From what I understand these subscriptions were for trade magazines and newsletters. Some of those might have had some use for a few federal workers but the cost they were paying was absurd. Some of these Politico subscriptions were worth six figures! That's an absurd waste of taxpayer money. I am sure that the information contained in these news letters are publicly available. 

And that's just the explanation that the media is using for why these subscriptions were being used. It's very possible that they weren't actually being used by anyone. If all these things are is trade letters, what do you think the chances are that the government employees that had these subscriptions never even read them? In that case it's an even bigger waste of money, especially for what the government was paying for them. 

The other major benefit is that this sure looks like graft. It at least has the appearance of doing so. Some of this money was from USAID and other government agencies that could have used these subscriptions as a way to ensure that Politico itself gave good coverage to their efforts. Given how critical Politico is of both the Trump administration and right wing politics in general this could mean that their coverage of those things are not actually organic. They could be paid off. 

Are we certain that is what is happening? I believe it. I have very little doubt that the government and news outlets were coordinating with each other to both prevent Donald Trump from returning to office, among other things. Can we prove that in court? Probably not. But if it is the case I would like to see these folks face justice because I doubt that is legal. This would essentially be a bribe. 

Regardless, the most important thing is that these money is no longer going to Politico and other news outlets. This is going to hurt their bottom line but that's a small price to pay if it means less money is being wasted by the taxpayers. I doubt there was any real legitimate reason why these subscriptions and contracts existed and that's all money that could be spent elsewhere.   

President Trump issues a threat against Iran: If they attempt to take him out he has left orders for the USA to retaliate with military force.

 

Donald Trump speaks to reporters as he signs executive orders. AP. 

President Trump issued a major threat against Iran saying that he has left orders to have Iran "obliterated" if they successfully assassinate him. AP. Trump was signing an executive order to pressure Iran to give up any nuclear weapons program when he made the comments. Though he said that he wished for peace in the Middle East he acknowledged the threat. During the campaign Trump faced two assassination attempts, neither of which was apparently connected to Iran. However, the Justice Department said they had disrupted an Iranian plot against Donald Trump. If a plot against Trump would succeed, JD Vance would become President and it is unclear if he would follow Trump's orders or not. Iran has made threats against Trump ever since he ordered the bombing of Quds Force General Qasem Soleimani.

My Comment:

I have discussed this issue before. Back then I said that had Iran murdered candidate Trump then I didn't see a way for Joe Biden to avoid a war with Iran. Obviously, now that Trump is back in office, any attempt on his life, successful or not, would be an act of war and would obviously be a valid casus belli for a major war against Iran. 

If such an attempt on the President's life were to succeed, I am sure that JD Vance would follow Trump's orders. At that point it would have little to do with Trump himself, though even his critics would support a conflict. Not retaliating with force would show extreme weakness and is pretty much unimaginable. Like I said, a foreign government killing a President would be an act of war and would justify a military retaliation. 

The real question is what that retaliation would be? Would it be a targeted attack against the people that ordered the attack? Would it be a full scale war, or even an invasion? Or could it be the ultimate retaliation, nuclear warfare? I think the first two options are the most likely, a full invasion or a nuclear war would be very unlikely. The attack would most likely be proportionate. 

Of course I have seen very little evidence that Iran is capable of actually getting to Donald Trump. Even if you ignore the amount of luck that the man has, it honestly borders on divine protection if you believe in that kind of thing, Trump has the best security in the world right now. I struggle to think of a way they could get to him now that security has been tightened up dramatically. 

And Iran? They are absolutely on the back foot right now. They gambled big on the Israel-Gaza war and they lost big. Their only success was the Yemen theater, in every other theater they lost. Gaza gave up, Hezbollah was mostly destroyed and their proxy armies in Syria no longer have any protection from the Turkish backed new government. In short, I don't know if they can actually do all that much. 

But the fear is that they have been so humiliated they will want to try and take Trump out regardless. That would be an act of insanity, especially after this warning, but would they care? I would think that they wouldn't want to take the risk, but that assumes rational actors. Is the leadership of Iran rational? Keep in mind that Trump just ordered "maximum pressure" on Iran, it's possible that it will be effective enough to drive them to an insane action... 

The only problem I can see with Trump's order here is the possibility that Iran gets blamed for any attempt on Trump's life even if they aren't responsible. I would hope that if the unthinkable does happen we would at least wait for proof that Iran was the one that did it. Trump, unfortunately, has many enemies and Iran probably isn't even in the top five, though they would be in the top ten. But the last thing we need is an unnecessary war if Iran isn't actually responsible. 

Trump cuts a deal with Canada and Mexico to delay tariffs for at least 30 days.

 

Donald Trump and Justin Trudeau. Fox News.

Donald Trump has cut a deal with the leadership of Canada and Mexico that will delay tariffs for at least 30 days. Fox News. Both countries made major concessions to Trump to avoid the tariffs, which would have been at 25% for general goods and 10% for energy related items for Canada. Canadian Prime Minster Justin Trudeau gave Trump a major commitment to secure the northern US border and said he would appoint a czar to deal with the fentanyl problem. Trudeau also said he would deploy new helicopters, technology and personnel and would coordinate with the United States to deal with illegal immigration and drug smuggling. Mexico made similar commitments to deploy troops to border, 10,000 troops, and made other concessions. 

My Comment:

As expected Trump cut a deal. Why folks are surprised that he was able to pull on off when he literally wrote a book about making a deal (well, I am sure it was ghost written) is beyond me. This is what Trump is known for and the only way it wouldn't have happened is if the leadership of Mexico and/or Canada were especially stubborn. 

Of course it's not like this was anything new, Trump already had the exact same thing happen with Columbia. Columbia got annoyed with how Trump was sending them deported illegals and Trump decided to drop the hammer with threats of major tariffs. Columbia backed down so fast that the blog post I wrote about it was only valid for about five minutes before news broke. 

Trump knows that tariffs are an extremely potent weapon to use. Had a deal not been cut, Canada and Mexico would have been heading to a recession at best. They are both hugely dependent on the United States for trade while America isn't anywhere near as vulnerable. They would have been in trouble long before it started to negatively affect America. It won't work against all countries, tariffs would obviously be useless against Russia due to sanctions, but it should work well against trading partners. 

I do kind of wish that Canada had not cut a deal. I greatly dislike Justin Trudeau and I would love to see him squirm. He's the worst leader in this hemisphere and it's not close. It galls me that he's taking a victory lap before he leaves office. I'd rather have Trump kept these tariffs until Trudeau was replaced, but it's probably better for both sides that a deal is made. 

I also wonder if Trump will get further concessions. This deal is only for 30 days and the tariffs could, in theory, come into play after that. The wins here were pretty big though so I think Trump might settle with what he has gotten. Plus it's good to show that he is willing to let bygones be bygones if he gets what he wants. It's smart. 

I also appreciate that this was all over drug smuggling and illegal immigration. Something has to be done about the fentanyl problem and if any progress is to be made there there has to be major cooperation with both Mexico and Canada. Canada isn't a huge source of the drug but if Mexico cleans up their act they would be the obvious next choice. Plus, illegal immigrants are coming in over all borders and I think it's long overdue that we strengthen our controls on the northern one. 

  

Protesters shut down Los Angeles highway in response to illegal immigration deportations.

 

Protesters shut down the 101 freeway. LA Times.

Protesters shut down Highway 101 in Los Angeles in response to recent deportations of illegal immigrants. LA Times. The protesters waved Mexican and El Salvador flags. The protest was peaceful at first but a man doing "donuts" near city hall. The protest was seemingly inspired by that and many of them walked onto the highway and shut it down. Police did not respond to this in any way, despite the closure of the highway and multiple drivers doing burnouts in the streets. 

My Comment:

First a note about the status of the blog. One of my recent posts about illegal immigration was removed by blogger for reasons unknown. They cited "hate speech" which is bizarre since the post didn't have anything even close to that and I am unsure what the issue was. It was the first time any of my posts here have been moderated and I have had this blog for a decade now. Either way, I'm not going to stop posting about illegal immigration and if that means my blog gets deleted, well, at least I still have X, which I have considered moving too anyways. Especially when I have no idea what exactly set them off this time, how could I even consider censoring myself when I don't even know what the issue was? I certainly didn't knowingly post anything against the TOS, so the whole situation is confusing. 

Back on topic though, I don't think these people understand the optics here. If their idea was to convince folks that they were an asset I don't see how blocking a busy highway accomplishes that. Doing so while flying the flag of their home country but not the country that they are living in is even worse. The obvious reaction is that if they like Mexico and El Salvador so much, why don't they go back? 

I have always said that blocking highway traffic is about the most counterproductive style of "protest" I have ever seen. You aren't peaceful when you block a highway, you are injuring people who have done nothing to you and you could even be putting lives at risk. A few people have been killed, either because the protesters got hit by cars or because these kinds of protests block even emergency vehicles. 

And I can't tell you how visceral my reaction is to seeing this kind of protest. It would be one thing if they were protesting the folks that were actually making these decisions, like the trucker protests did in Canada, but they aren't. They are just targeting folks trying to get to and from work, or even workers themselves if you count all the truckers, rideshare and other folks that are in a vehicle for their jobs. 

Another question is why the Los Angeles police just sat there and did nothing. Blocking highways is disorderly conduct at best and certainly justifies breaking up the part of the protests that were blocking the freeway. But the cops did nothing. I guess I shouldn't expect much from the LAPD but still, it's disappointing. 

Either way, I wouldn't be upset if these folks got moved to the front of the deportation line. So far the Trump administration has mostly focused on illegal immigrants that have been convicted or charged with crimes, but the fact that these folks weren't charged shouldn't deter them. These folks are doing a lot more than working a job an American could take or raising the price of rent, they are actively making things worse for everyone that happens to be in LA. 

Finally, I would like to say that we shouldn't just assume that everyone is on board with this. There are a lot of Mexican and Hispanic Americans that agree with Trump's deportation policies. Most of them are either 2nd or 3rd generation descendants of immigrants and legal immigrants themselves. Indeed, one of the biggest "Trump guys" I know is of Mexican descent. It's another reason why I am angry these folks were flying those flags, they don't speak for everyone who came from or lives in that country...