The American and Russian delegations meeting in Saudi Arabia. Fox News/AP.
The United States and Russia met in Saudi Arabia and have made progress in normalizing ties and possibly ending the war in Ukraine. Fox News. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Russian Foreign Minster Sergey Lavrov and agreed to a framework to end the war. Reports say that both sides agree that Ukraine has to hold elections if any peace deal is to be made. Ukrainian President Zelensky is likely to lose any such election and will almost certainly be replaced by someone more willing to negotiate and possibly someone more sympathetic to Russia. However, the meeting was also about trying to normalize relations between Russia and America, which have degraded massively under the Biden administration. It is notable that both Ukraine and the rest of Europe were shut out of the talks in Saudi Arabia.
My Comment:
As important as the Ukraine war is, the real goal of his meeting was normalizing relations. From what I understand that was successful as well. Supposedly, it was agreed that they would fully staff their embassies again, which is a major win. Even if the Ukraine talks don't pan out, at the very least we are a lot less close to World War III than we were under Joe Biden.
They also agreed to a major meeting between Putin and Donald Trump. That will be a diplomatic coup as well. The two men used to have a good working relationship though obviously they haven't met in person for awhile. Unlike Biden, who openly hated Putin, Trump is at least willing to work with Russia and may be able to further normalize ties to the point where sanctions are dropped.
Of course the big news is of course Ukraine. It seems very clear that there are going to have to be elections for a peace deal to happen. Keep in mind, Zelensky's term ended last year and he canceled elections. He's not a legitimate President right now and that has to change if Ukraine is going to be at the table for any negotiations.
This is, of course, bad news for Zelensky. He's not going to win any election, which is why he didn't hold them in the first place. He made noise about it not being possible while in a war, though that was never an argument that held any water. He has little choice but to hold elections either, if he refuses then President Trump has the perfect excuse to cut him off entirely.
I have zero sympathy for Zelensky, by the way. I took it rather personally that the man was elected for one reason and one reason alone, to end the war, and he betrayed that promise as bad as I have ever seen anyone betray anything. Zelensky pretty much destroyed his entire country because Biden ordered him to and I won't forgive that. I hope that any deal made ends with Zelensky in a small cell somewhere for the rest of his life...
There is a long way to go to any peace deal in Ukraine. Russia was always going to be hard to convince as they know that any deal they make with Trump could be overturned by whoever replaces Trump in 2028. Putin can't risk Ukraine being able to rejoin the war in four years if a Democrat or neocon Republican wins in 2028.
But it does seem like things are moving on that front. I am guessing that a peace deal is possible, at least. I still think the most likely deal is that an agreement isn't made and Ukraine collapses and Russia wins militarily. Given the low morale, lack of weapons and manpower, and the absolutely idiotic military actions Ukraine has taken, it's very possible that Ukraine collapses on its own before any deal can be made.
I am not surprised that both Ukraine and Europe were shut out of these talks. For one, it wasn't primary about them, like I said the main reason was to normalize ties to a degree. But I don't think Ukraine or Europe is serious about ending the war and normalizing ties with Russia. If they aren't willing to play ball, why invite them to the table?
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