President Trump issues a threat against Iran: If they attempt to take him out he has left orders for the USA to retaliate with military force.

 

Donald Trump speaks to reporters as he signs executive orders. AP. 

President Trump issued a major threat against Iran saying that he has left orders to have Iran "obliterated" if they successfully assassinate him. AP. Trump was signing an executive order to pressure Iran to give up any nuclear weapons program when he made the comments. Though he said that he wished for peace in the Middle East he acknowledged the threat. During the campaign Trump faced two assassination attempts, neither of which was apparently connected to Iran. However, the Justice Department said they had disrupted an Iranian plot against Donald Trump. If a plot against Trump would succeed, JD Vance would become President and it is unclear if he would follow Trump's orders or not. Iran has made threats against Trump ever since he ordered the bombing of Quds Force General Qasem Soleimani.

My Comment:

I have discussed this issue before. Back then I said that had Iran murdered candidate Trump then I didn't see a way for Joe Biden to avoid a war with Iran. Obviously, now that Trump is back in office, any attempt on his life, successful or not, would be an act of war and would obviously be a valid casus belli for a major war against Iran. 

If such an attempt on the President's life were to succeed, I am sure that JD Vance would follow Trump's orders. At that point it would have little to do with Trump himself, though even his critics would support a conflict. Not retaliating with force would show extreme weakness and is pretty much unimaginable. Like I said, a foreign government killing a President would be an act of war and would justify a military retaliation. 

The real question is what that retaliation would be? Would it be a targeted attack against the people that ordered the attack? Would it be a full scale war, or even an invasion? Or could it be the ultimate retaliation, nuclear warfare? I think the first two options are the most likely, a full invasion or a nuclear war would be very unlikely. The attack would most likely be proportionate. 

Of course I have seen very little evidence that Iran is capable of actually getting to Donald Trump. Even if you ignore the amount of luck that the man has, it honestly borders on divine protection if you believe in that kind of thing, Trump has the best security in the world right now. I struggle to think of a way they could get to him now that security has been tightened up dramatically. 

And Iran? They are absolutely on the back foot right now. They gambled big on the Israel-Gaza war and they lost big. Their only success was the Yemen theater, in every other theater they lost. Gaza gave up, Hezbollah was mostly destroyed and their proxy armies in Syria no longer have any protection from the Turkish backed new government. In short, I don't know if they can actually do all that much. 

But the fear is that they have been so humiliated they will want to try and take Trump out regardless. That would be an act of insanity, especially after this warning, but would they care? I would think that they wouldn't want to take the risk, but that assumes rational actors. Is the leadership of Iran rational? Keep in mind that Trump just ordered "maximum pressure" on Iran, it's possible that it will be effective enough to drive them to an insane action... 

The only problem I can see with Trump's order here is the possibility that Iran gets blamed for any attempt on Trump's life even if they aren't responsible. I would hope that if the unthinkable does happen we would at least wait for proof that Iran was the one that did it. Trump, unfortunately, has many enemies and Iran probably isn't even in the top five, though they would be in the top ten. But the last thing we need is an unnecessary war if Iran isn't actually responsible.