Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Politico/AFP/Getty
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have agreed to peace talks that could end the war in Ukraine. Politico. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth started the announcement by saying that Ukraine would not be able to take back both Crimea and the territory Russia took during the war. Hegseth also said that there was no path for Ukraine to join NATO, which was a major cause of the war. Trump talked to both Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky, who confirmed that the country wanted peace. The announcement leaves Europe out in the cold and some of those countries have vowed to continue to support Ukraine.
My Comment:
Very interesting. We finally know Trump's policy on Russia and Ukraine and it seems like we are done with the Ukraine war. We also seem like we will finally have a sane policy when it comes to Russia and we will also finally move away from a third world war.
Do I think that the war will end in negotiated settlement? I doubt it. Trump is moving to be into a position to where he can cut off Ukraine. Right now all the pressure is on Zelensky. I don't think he will be allowed to accept the terms Trump is proposing, no path to NATO and Russia keeps the lands they have kept. He has a lot of hardliners in his country that would prefer to see every Ukrainian dead before they would even consider allowing Putin to even keep Crimea, let alone the rest of the territory they have taken.
And it's not like there aren't easy ways to get rid of Zelensky if he refuses to go along with this on the United States' end either. Zelensky should have stood for election months ago and has not. I am guessing that will be a major demand of Putin and one that I don't see Zelensky going for as he will not survive an election. But it's also an entirely valid demand, we can't be "defending democracy" in Ukraine if democracy isn't even allowed to happen.
Ukraine's truly heroic levels of corruption might be another out. Though much of the aid sent to Ukraine probably ended up in America, I am guessing that Zelensky and his cronies enriched themselves as well. Supposedly we are auditing the aid given to Ukraine and when the corruption is found, and it will be, it would be a perfect way to get America out of the war and start dealing with Russia directly.
I do think that there is a small possibility to end the war with negotiations though. I find it extremely unlikely, like I said, Zelensky is probably dead to his hardliners if he seriously considers Trump's plan. But it's possible that Zelensky could reign in the hardliners and actually negotiate in good faith.
Such a deal would be hard to get. Putin is in a good situation here and he knows he will win the war regardless of what Trump does. I can't see any deal where Ukraine remains a military force as though I think he can trust Trump to not restart the war, can he trust the next American president? Both the Democrats and the few remaining neocons in the Republican Party would probably start the war again if the war ends with a peace deal.
But a peace deal is still possible. Though Russia is in a good position, it's hard to argue that the war hasn't been tough for them. It's possible that Putin would value the end of the war over totally destroying Ukraine as they could get sanctions relief, better relations with the United States, and an end raids and destruction against their territory. I think this is unlikely but there is a slim chance that the war could end with a deal
However, I mostly Trump saying to Europe that Ukraine is their problem now. Europe has terrible relations with Trump and Trump doesn't want to run a war he had no interest in the first place. If negotiations don't work he has a third out that Europe ruined everything and they can take the blame for when Ukraine falls. Essentially Trump will get a separate peace from Europe and they are just going to have to deal with it.
If Europe does try to continue the war after a deal is made between Trump and Putin, it will be an exercise in folly. They have very little in terms of weapons left and won't really be able to provide for Ukraine in any meaningful way. Even if they go totally insane and deploy troops to Ukraine, they won't be able to win the war. They simply don't have the weapons left to make much of a difference.
Either way, I am very happy. I have always hated the war in Ukraine and I have always thought it was the worst thing America has done in my lifetime at least, maybe period. Biden started a war with Russia, a nuclear power, that has left Ukraine destroyed to the point where they won't really able to continue as a people. I never thought Russia should have been an enemy after the cold war ended but the Democrats always made it a demand. This kind of deal making to reverse that course is why I have supported Donald Trump in the last three elections.
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